Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq



Real GDP is forecasted to rebound this year, albeit at a gradual pace following a contraction last year of about 2%. The slow recovery is supported by the gradual recovery of oil production and a robust non-oil activity, buoyed by an expansionary fiscal policy. We revised our forecast for GDP growth this year to 1.8% from 3.6% due to the extension of the voluntary cut of 220,000 barrels per day until September. The cuts are then expected to be gradually phased out by end-2025.


Iraq: Fiscal expansion to support economic recovery in 2024
Forecast overview
GDP growth to recover in 2024
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Medium-term prospects still driven by oil
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Policy and politics

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