Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep.

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep.

Despite months of reports indicating the near imminent arrival of a new nuclear deal, progress appears to have stalled. The US has warned that the window of opportunity for reviving the deal is closing as Iran's advancements in its nuclear program threaten to make the terms of the 2016 deal defunct. While Iran's GDP grew by 5.1% in 2021, and a surge in oil prices will help support growth in 2022, we expect that a no-deal situation could limit growth in the medium term. We have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.4ppts to 2.5%, with oil prices expected to drive the expansion as global and local inflationary pressures will continue to weigh on demand.

Iran: Growth to moderate as nuclear deal remains in limbo
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term Outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Economic policy

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