Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong SAR

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong SAR

We maintain our forecast for Hong Kong's GDP to contract 0.8% this year, reflecting the impact of the Covid outbreak in H1 and a worsening external environment driven by sharply tightening global financial conditions. However, we still look for growth to rebound to 4% in 2023 after a dismal performance this year, as we anticipate a further economic reopening of the city to the world as well as some improvements in activity conditions in mainland China. That said, risks to our growth forecasts are to the downside amid external headwinds.

Hong Kong SAR: External headwinds threaten reopening gains
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to Key global risks
Long-term prospects
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and Structure of trade

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