Barring a resurgence of Covid, we expect Hong Kong's economy to recover in H2 on the back of eased restrictions and another round of consumption vouchers. A stimulus-driven pickup in Chinese growth over the coming months will serve in cushioning exports against slower global demand and prop up fixed investment. Nonetheless, rising interest rates and a weakening global growth outlook will be a drag in H2 and into 2023. We are maintaining our GDP growth forecast of just 0.1% in 2022 but have cut our 2023 forecast 0.6ppts to 4%.
Hong Kong SAR: economy is on the mend, but new Covid outbreaks still a riskForecast overviewRecent developmentsShort-term outlookkey drivers of our Short-term Forecastrisk warningsWhat to watch out forExposure to key global risksLong-term prospectsBackgroundEconomic developmentStructure of the economyBalance of payments and Structure of tradePolicypolitics
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