Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany

We now see German inflation peaking higher and slowing more gradually, given our elevated gas price forecast. Thus, real incomes will contract in 2023, deepening the dip in consumer spending. Spiking gas and electricity prices have triggered a front-loaded hit to industrial activity, and we see the economy entering recession in Q3. We've cut our 2022 GDP forecast 0.2ppts to 1.3% and slashed our 2023 forecasts another 1.0ppt to -0.8%, with inflation now seen above 4% next year.


Germany: Energy-intensive firm shutdowns to cause bigger slump
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to Key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and Structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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