Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France

We've lowered our forecast for GDP growth in France in 2025 by 0.1ppt to 0.5% as global trade uncertainty is weighing on business investment even more than we initially anticipated. In 2026, we continue to expect a modest rebound in activity, with GDP growth reaching 1%.


France: New defence paradigm will have a gradual effect
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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