Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
We have lowered our Danish 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.5pts to 2.9%, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on global commodity prices are set to raise inflation to levels not seen since the 1980's. This will primarily impact consumers, who are likely to see their real income fall sequentially over the course of 2022 after having reined back spending in Q4 2021. Industrial output and goods exports will also struggle, as supply bottlenecks will likely take longer to unwind and high natural gas prices (which accounts for 30% of final industrial energy consumption) will keep input costs high. In 2023, growth will slow to 2%, 0.1ppt lower than our previous forecast. But loose direct economic links to Russia and Ukraine mean we do not expect long-term GDP scarring from the conflict, with growth picking up slightly in the medium term.
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