Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Pakistan
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Pakistan We lifted our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Pakistan slightly this year, reflecting a stronger Q1 historical estimate. Agricultural-sector prospects are promising, and there is room for recovery in the industry and services subsectors. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Jamaica
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Jamaica We've revised down our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Jamaica slightly to 2.0% from 2.1% but we maintain our forecast of 2.1% growth for 2025. We think the slowdown in domestic consumption and external demand, and the only modest recovery in investme ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - El Salvador
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - El Salvador We’ve cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for El Salvador by 0.1 ppt to 1.9%. President Bukele's plan to reduce expenditures through layoffs and decreased transfers will weigh on household expenditures and government consumption next year. Althoug ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa Ethiopia has made rapid progress on policy reforms over the past three months. Adopting a market-determined FX regime and loosening restrictions on the current account unlocked a four-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) on July 29. Authorities accessed a second-tranche di ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Polls have shifted in favor of Republicans in recent days. Former President Donald Trump is leading in just enough battleground states to win the Electoral College. Key Senate races where Democrats are defending their seats have tightened, and House Democrats are no lon ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Serbia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Serbia We raised our GDP forecast for 2024 by 0.6ppts to 4.1% in 2024 and left 2025 unchanged at 4%. Better-than-expected GDP data outturns led us to revise our forecast for this year. In 2025, a more favourable carryover effect will offset the slightly softer qu ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iceland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iceland We forecast Iceland's economy will expand by 2.8% in 2025, accelerating from 0.9% this year. Prospects have improved due to a better demographic outlook. We expect more stubborn inflation, averaging 3.9% next year and 6.0% in 2024, due to its stickine ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Long-term interest rates trended higher over the past several weeks but the increase doesn't pose a significant downside risk to our forecast. Some of the increase is attributed to the bond market betting on former President Donald Trump winning the election, sugges ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cape Verde
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cape Verde Annual economic growth averaged 9.7% y/y in the first half of 2024, with strong performances in the transport (23.3% y/y) and accommodation and food service (37.9% y/y) sectors. However, due to the high base, growth is expected to slow in the year&# ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic Congo's average oil production declined to 259,000 bpd in the first nine months of the year from 275,300 bpd in the same period in 2023. We now project a sharper 4.0% reduction in Congo's average oil output for 2024 (-3.1% estimated prev ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece In its regular data revision process, ELSTAT revised up both nominal and real GDP for Greece. As a result, nominal GDP data for 2023 is now 2.3% higher than the previous estimate. We'll incorporate the new data into our forecast as soon as the quarterl ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria Economic activity in Austria remained weaker than we anticipated in recent months and heavy floods in September presented an additional drag. Consequently, we now expect flat quarterly growth for Q3. But risks are skewed to the downside as industrial prod ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The September data on consumer and producer prices were mixed, but it doesn't alter our near-term forecast for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25bps at each of its two remaining meetings this year. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles We forecast real GDP growth of 3.1% in 2024 as investments in the information technology sector boost economic activity. While tourism revenue prospects for the short term are improving, tourist arrivals still fall short of pre-pandemic levels. Incr ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Iraq by 0.6ppts to 2.5%. We mainly attribute our upward revision to the overproduction of oil since January, supported by expansionary fiscal policy. But we've lowered our forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Jordan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Jordan We've revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Jordan to 1.6% down from 2.6% in 2023, underpinned by the ongoing regional conflict. Data for Q1 2024 shows a continued contraction in GDP for the second consecutive quarter on quarterly terms. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Madagascar
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Madagascar High-frequency indicators suggest that economic growth in Madagascar was robust in Q2 2024. The central bank's Indicator of Business Activities (IAE) recorded a 17.2% y/y expansion in the second quarter, primarily driven by improved tertiary sec ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The Federal Reserve will kick off its rate-cutting cycle at next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the only outstanding question being whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps. We think the data only justifies a 25bp cut. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guinea
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guinea Real GDP growth came in above our expectations at 7.1% in 2023, largely driven by robust growth in total fixed investment. We now project the Guinean economy to grow by 5.4% this year, higher than our previous estimate of 4.6%. Given the better-than-exp ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Economic policy uncertainty is rising earlier than normal for a presidential election year, and this has implications for the Q4 growth profile. Because of heightened uncertainty, we will adjust our forecast for Q4 business investment in nonresidential structures and eq ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The July Federal Open Market Committee minutes and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole provided another clear signal that the Fed will cut rates in September. We think it would take a large, negative surprise in the labor market data between ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Since the release of the July employment report, financial markets have been focused on the labor market and the implications for Federal Reserve policy, but the other side of the central bank's dual mandate will come back into view during the week ahead. Some of th ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine The severe energy shortages and the intensifying war, accompanied by a new wave of mobilisation, have dampened Ukraine's economic recovery to only 1.1% y/y of GDP growth in June, from 3.7% y/y in May. But due to stronger growth in Q1, GDP reached a de ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong SAR
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong SAR A strong export-led start to the year led us to revise up our 2024 forecast for Hong Kong's growth to 3.6%. In 2025, while we've pencilled in sequential moderation in growth, favourable base effects will push y/y growth to 4.1%. This is cons ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The lull in the economy during the first three months of the year proved to be temporary. The reacceleration in GDP growth in Q2 should help temper concerns about the durability of the expansion and quiet chatter that the Federal Reserve needs to cut inte ... Read More
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