Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
We kept our GDP growth forecasts for Portugal broadly unchanged at 2.5% for 2025 and 2% for 2026. Portugal's government unexpectedly collapsed, with a snap election likely to occur in May. We don't think the renewed political crisis will derail an otherwise solid economic outlook supported b ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
The economy contracted by 0.4% in Q4 2024 following data revisions, the eighth consecutive quarterly decline, shrinking by 1.5% over the course of last year. The data paint a picture of an economy in recession, dragged down by a struggling export sector. In the last quarter, positive contributions c ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
We have kept our GDP growth forecast for Peru unchanged at 2.6% for 2025, down 0.7ppts from last year. Private consumption will continue to be the main driver, supported by low inflation, flexible financial conditions, and a stable labor market. However, we expect net trade to drag on the economy, g ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico
We have halved our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Mexico to 0.7% to reflect heightened tariff uncertainty. The economy could still narrowly avoid a technical recession in Q1 due to base effects, but activity will remain subdued. Our growth forecast is now marginally below the consensus projection of 0 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
We continue to expect the Eurozone's GDP will grow by 0.9% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. However, we have adjusted our assumption on EU military spending, which we think will gradually increase to 3% of GDP by end of the decade. This prompted us to raise our GDP projections slightly from next year. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kenya
The Kenyan government has raised its projected expenditure for the 2024/25 fiscal year (FY, July to June) to KSh3.98trn, underscoring ongoing difficulties in managing its public finances. Following the withdrawal of the 2024 Finance Bill, government spending was initially trimmed by 2.8% to KSh3.88t ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cambodia
We maintain our upbeat view on the Cambodian economy. We expect GDP growth of 6.3% y/y in 2025, up from an estimated 6% in 2024. Downside risks remain present, but we see the overall growth outlook as positive, given higher investment and the recovery of private consumption. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kazakhstan
We've increased our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan to 6.9% from 6.3% as some of last year's strong growth momentum will have spilled over to this year. Domestic demand rose quickly in H2 2024 on a combination of positive factors – the development of new transport and foreign trade l ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
The Zambian economy started the year on the back foot, clipped by elevated drought-related import needs, a weak kwacha exchange rate, and escalating inflation. Yet, a precipitation-induced economic recovery is possible. Despite a delayed start to the rainy season, water levels are rising, strengthen ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt
Geopolitical tensions and a reconstruction plan for Gaza took centre stage during the past month. At an emergency Arab League summit in Egypt on March 4, President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi and the leaders of several Arab nations presented a reconstruction plan for the Gaza Strip. The plan is a positive ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Ghana’s new finance minister, Cassiel Ato Forson, will present the 2025 Budget to Parliament on March 11. This will mark the first full-year budget under the new Mahama administration, following a GHȼ68bn provisional budget approved in January for first-quarter government spending. In February, an I ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
A North American trade war unfolded in dramatic fashion this week. Though the initial duties on March 4 were eventually watered down, tariff rates on Canada and Mexico have still ended up at double-digit levels, a substantial increase from before. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
Our forecast for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth in 2025 has been upgraded to 4.4%, up from the previous estimate of 3.9%. This revision follows OPEC+’s decision to increase supply from Q2 onwards, earlier than both our and market expectations of Q3 2025. However, non-oil activities will remain the p ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
We have revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast upward to 4.7%, driven entirely by the latest OPEC+ agreement to gradually unwind production cuts starting in Q2. Although oil prices remain under pressure, the increase in production will support growth in the oil sector, particularly as the UAE continue ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mali
Mali's real GDP growth last year surprised to the upside at 5.0% – higher than our prediction of 4.6%. Robust fixed investment inflows were the largest driver of the higher annual print, while a slowdown in exports dragged on growth. We forecast real GDP growth to slow over the next two years, r ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecast - Japan
We've nudged down our GDP growth forecasts for Japan by 0.1ppt to 1.1% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026. We expect the economy will be supported by gradual improvements in consumption alongside real income gains, but weaker external demand will weigh on the growth. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sudan
The ongoing war in Sudan is forecast to trigger the country's eighth consecutive annual economic contraction this year. After nearly two years of war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Sudan's main paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the chances of an end to the war ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belarus
We raised our GDP growth forecast for Belarus by 0.4ppts to 2.4% y/y for 2025 from 2% y/y. Our revisions reflect continuing momentum in domestic demand, exports, and private consumption. This trend is set to moderate as exports slow in H2 as Russian import-substitution weighs on exports from Belarus ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - China
Recent policy headlines suggest strong top-down guidance towards further coordinated easing between various economic agents this year. This, alongside hints that authorities could shift towards a more supportive stance on private entrepreneurship, have rallied onshore markets, despite prior rounds ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cyprus
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Cyprus by 0.3ppts to 2.4%, though this is still one of the fastest rates of expansion we project in the Eurozone this year. The downgrade was prompted by a soft end to 2024 and the likely start of a trade war with the US. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Morocco
On preliminary figures from the High Planning Commission, real GDP growth in Morocco was 3.1% in 2024, stronger than our previous estimate of 2.7%. The available numbers show real GDP growth of 4.3% y/y in Q3 2024, driven by persistently strong growth in mining & quarrying and accommodation & ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Luxembourg
We've revised our forecast for Luxembourg in 2025 and now expect the economy to grow by 2.2%, 0.3ppts lower than previously. This reflects the negative economic impact we expect from US tariffs and the repercussions in the Eurozone. We expect growth in business investment to be substantially low ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Bangladesh
We have cut our real GDP growth forecast for Bangladesh to 4.2% during FY2024/25 (ending in June 2025), down from 5.5% previously. This is the same pace as last year, as revised data for FY2023/24 show the economy only expanded by 4.2%. The new fiscal year has started on a much weaker footing due to ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe’s economy is expected to accelerate this year after the marked slowdown in 2024. Our economic growth forecast of 2.8% this year is below consensus, as we think last year's drought will continue to stifle electricity generation. Meanwhile, the ZiG has stabilised somewhat after last year’ ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Tanzania
The US aid freeze, effective from January 25, has disrupted over 60 non-governmental organisations operating in Tanzania's critical sectors such as healthcare and agriculture. The 90-day halt has raised concerns about the long-term repercussions, as many essential services rely heavily on foreig ... Read More
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