Category: Financial Services
Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine
Despite Donald Trump's efforts, a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine remains elusive, with Russia so far rejecting the proposed 30-day partial ceasefire by making it conditional on sanctions relief. Even if achieved, this type of ceasefire would be largely symbolic. We therefore base our Ukrai ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay
We have revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Uruguay down by 0.1ppt to 2.4%, while maintaining our estimate for next year at 2.3%, broadly in line with consensus. We expect domestic demand to strengthen, driven by robust private consumption, supported by higher real wages. This should offset a n ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Kuwait by 1ppt to 3.3% to reflect our more optimistic outlooks on both oil production and non-oil sector growth. OPEC+'s announcement of an earlier-than-expected unwinding schedule of oil production cuts and the recent approval of Kuwait's de ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
We have kept our GDP growth forecast for the Czech Republic unchanged at 2.3% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026. However, we will likely upgrade our outlook, particularly over the medium term, in light of the nascent German fiscal stimulus. This is expected to generate both positive and negative spillovers f ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Romania by 0.5ppts to 2.1%. This reflects our view that delays stemming from the presidential election re-run and a larger-than-expected deficit at the start of this year mean that the government will have to implement additional consolidation measures ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary
We've nudged up our GDP growth forecasts for Hungary by 0.1ppt to 1.6% for 2025 and 3.3% for 2026. Still, we think that looming US tariffs and weak external demand will weigh on growth in the near term. But the solid pre-electoral stimulus will support activity in Hungary later this year, and th ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria
We've nudged up our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Bulgaria by 0.1ppt to 3%. Fourth-quarter data came in stronger than expected, with the economy growing by 0.9% q/q. After extensive parliamentary discussions, Bulgaria's 2025 Budget was approved on March 21. However, we think the government ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka's economy gained 5.0% y/y in 2024, representing the strongest rebound since 2018. The services sector was the biggest contributor to 2024 growth (1.5ppts), followed by the manufacturing and construction sectors. We've maintained our 2025 GDP forecast of 3.8% y/y, but have revised d ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
We have revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Chile down by 0.1ppt to 2.4% y/y, driven by a downward revision to investment amid the global uncertainty. However, we believe the impact of the international outlook will be more pronounced next year, prompting a larger reduction in our 2026 forecast ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Israel
We haven't changed our Israel forecasts this round, despite the country's defence forces resuming their military operations against Hamas. That said, we view a further weakening of the second stage of the ceasefire, which could delay an end to the war by several months, as a heightened risk ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique
The Mozambican economy entered 2025 severely weakened: fiscal revenues have declined, inflation has increased, and investor confidence has dented in the wake of October's disputed general elections. The spate of violent protests and strikes caused hundreds of deaths and a sharp contraction in GD ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Indonesia
We maintain our forecast that Indonesia's GDP will grow by 5% this year, sustaining its steady growth trajectory. Although risks to growth are skewed to the downside, economic activity is likely to be supported by a more accommodative monetary policy, as inflation is expected to remain within th ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini
Eswatini's recent budget projects a wide fiscal deficit for the 2025/26 fiscal year (FY), driven by an increase in recurrent and capital spending. On the revenue side, a large decline in Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) receipts in the upcoming FY is expected to be offset by rising tax reve ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines
We forecast the Philippines' economy will expand by 6% y/y this year, following a 5.6% y/y increase in 2024, which is below the government's target of a 6%-6.5% GDP growth. Growth this year will be supported by more accommodative monetary policy and well-contained inflation. While the easing ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland
We've cut our sporting event-adjusted GDP growth forecasts for Switzerland by 0.2ppts to 1.2% in 2025 and 2026. Although current indicators are in line with our expectations, we now believe highly uncertain US tariff policy will weigh more on business investments in the coming months than initia ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Japan by 0.1ppt to 1% due to the worse external demand outlook and maintain our projection for 2026 at 0.6%. We continue to think that the Bank of Japan will raise the policy rate in July, but a hike in June is possible. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Togo
Togo’s economic prospects, which include a mix of opportunities and challenges, require proactive navigation. Growth remains robust, accelerating to 6.6% in 2024 from 6.4% in 2023. This performance was largely driven by agricultural output, port activity, and infrastructure investment. Sustaining th ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burkina Faso
IMF support, favourable commodity price movements, and improved weather conditions are sustaining Burkina Faso despite ongoing political instability. Considering these factors, we forecast the economy to expand by 3.6% this year, up from an estimated 3.5% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2023. Our projection is ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Bahrain's economy is set to accelerate in 2025, propelled by an oil sector recovery and the sustained growth of non-oil industries, especially financial services, manufacturing, and tourism. We predict real GDP growth of 2.8% in 2025, decreasing to 2.2% in 2026. We expect non-oil GDP growth to i ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chad
Following an update to historical figures, our 2025 real GDP growth forecast of 2.7% is little changed from the previous round and remains lower than the IMF's projection of 3.5%. That said, we still anticipate a slowdown in Chad's economic growth this year due to lower oil prices. Domestic ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Hong Kong SAR
We slightly revised our below-consensus growth forecast for Hong Kong down to 1.9%, following 2.5% export-driven growth last year. This revision reflects our assessment of the recent tenuous global trade environment. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Taiwan
We have revised Taiwan's 2025 inflation forecast up to 1.9% from 1.7% to reflect the impact of the anticipated price hikes in public transportation and utilities. Although we've adjusted our year-end policy rate forecast to 1.875% from 1.625% prior, we continue to believe that emerging downs ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Argentina by 0.3ppts to 3.9% but lowered our projection for 2026 by 0.5ppts to 2.6%. The 2025 revision reflects strong consumption momentum in Q1, while the 2026 cut is due to base effects. The threat of droughts due to the La Niña weather patte ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
We've maintained our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Singapore at 2.8%. Still, we acknowledge that the risks are shifting to the downside due to a worsening outlook for the external sector. With momentum set to slow, the Monetary Authority of Singapore is likely to ease policy again. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uzbekistan
We maintain our forecast of 5.9% GDP growth for Uzbekistan this year and expect growth to slow only marginally to 5.8% in 2026. We think activity will remain supported by strong exports and robust domestic consumption. Ongoing structural reforms and solid domestic demand will keep the rate of expans ... Read More
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