Category: Financial Services
Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia
Our GDP growth upgrade for 2025 to 2.6% doesn't reflect stronger growth prospects for Estonia this year but rather that the economy had more momentum at the end of 2024 than data had previously suggested. We don't expect the trade war launched by the US to directly impact Estonia's growt ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Because there are so few if any winners in a trade war, we slashed our EM GDP growth forecasts by 0.4ppts to 3.7% in 2025 and by 0.2ppts to 3.7% in 2026. These are the largest downgrades we've made to our EM growth projection since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
The impact of President Donald Trump's trade war is more visible in some data than others. While tariffs had their fingerprints all over Q1 GDP, it was only in the details of the April jobs report that some tariff effects could be discerned. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia
We have raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Colombia by 0.2ppts to 2.2%. Although the February ISE print saw momentum slowing for a second consecutive month, upside surprises to growth since the turn of the year imply a strong Q1 GDP figure. However, US reciprocal tariffs will cool exports and a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Hong Kong SAR
Risks to our downwardly-revised 2025 forecast are still skewed to the downside, given organic domestic demand has been weak since the removal of Covid-era stimulus and investors could remain on the sidelines for longer amid the global uncertainty. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania
We've downgraded our Romanian growth outlook following a substantial increase in US tariffs. The increased cost of importing Romanian goods into the US will directly drag on Romanian exports. Weaker global growth will indirectly weigh on demand from the rest of the world, while a prolonged perio ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine
We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Ukraine by 0.7ppts to 2.6% y/y for 2025 and by 1.5ppts to 3.5% y/y for 2026. The revisions mainly reflect the expected direct and indirect effects of US President Donald Trump's hostile trade policy. GDP growth of 2.9% y/y in 2024 also disappointed as i ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
We have lowered our GDP growth forecast for the Czech Republic to 2.2% in 2025. Growth in Q1 was in line with our predictions at 0.5% q/q and, coupled with a solid carryover effect, it should provide a solid impetus this year. But the drag from US tariffs and the associated trade policy uncertainty ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Rwanda
Real GDP growth is forecast to slow to 6.9% in 2025, down from 8.9% in 2024. We primarily attribute this decline to the possibility of sanctions and funding withdrawals because of the regional tensions in eastern DRC. Additionally, a potential reduction in agricultural output due to predicted below- ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland
We have lowered our sporting event-adjusted GDP forecasts for Switzerland to 1% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026, from 1.2% in both years in last month's baseline. The downgrade reflects our expectation of substantially weaker global growth and the negative impact that the tariff-induced higher uncertai ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines
The turbulence in financial markets caused by the on-again, off-again US tariff announcements in early April has settled down, for now. We have lowered our forecast for the Philippines' GDP growth by 0.3ppts to 5.7% y/y for 2025, reflecting the heightened uncertainty and its adverse effect on in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
We expect the 10% US tariff on Saudi Arabia, currently paused for 90 days, to have only a limited domestic economic impact. Energy exports – over 85% of Saudi exports to the US – are exempt, and the US accounted for just 8% of total Saudi exports in 2023. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malaysia
We've downgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Malaysia by 0.3ppts to 3.8%. The revision reflects US trade policy-induced disruptions to the global economy, which will keep Malaysia's growth momentum subdued. That said, possible inflationary pressures from domestic measures could prevent ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea
We downgraded our 2025 growth forecast to 0.7% y/y after last week's Q1 GDP numbers, though this will only be reflected in May's base release. Economic activity was weak, at -0.1% y/y and -0.2% q/q sa, dragged down by exports and investment. We expect both to remain weak for the rest of 2025 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
We've cut our GDP growth forecast for Poland by 0.1ppt to 3.4% this year and by 0.2ppts to 3% for 2026. The downward revision stems from the heightened uncertainty that the fast-changing US trade policy has triggered. Moreover, following a solid January, subsequent Q1 data indicated that sequent ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Indonesia
We expect Indonesia’s GDP growth will slow slightly to 4.8% y/y in 2025 and 2026, following a 5% expansion in 2024. Uncertainties surrounding US trade policy, heightened geopolitical risks, and weaker global growth are weighing on the country’s near-term outlook. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for China by 0.5pts to 4.1% in 2025 and by 0.2ppts to 3.9% in 2026 to reflect the effects of the trade war with the US. We expect peak economic drag from the exogenous demand shock of higher tariffs in Q2 and Q3 this year. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary
We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Hungary by 0.1ppt to 1.5% for 2025 and by 0.5ppts to 2.8% for 2026. The downside revision stems primarily from the economic uncertainty triggered by the ongoing trade war and the imposition of a 25% levy on cars the US imports from Hungary – a key export it ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
We’ve raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Argentina by 0.2ppt to 4.1% to reflect strong January and February data but have cut our 2026 projection by 0.5ppts to 2.1%. Although Argentina has limited exposure to US tariffs, the global economic slowdown will weigh on growth in next year. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malawi
We forecast Malawi's real GDP growth to recover modestly to 2.7% this year from 1.8% in 2024. Better rainfall compared with last year's severe drought will increase overall agricultural production; that said, heavy rains in some areas have adversely affected the quality of crops, moderating ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We've lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Kuwait by 1.4ppts to 1.9% to reflect our more pessimistic outlooks for government consumption and the manufacturing sector. The downward revision was also driven by potential fiscal spending cuts resulting from lower oil revenues, as well as mandato ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
We have lowered our GDP growth forecast Croatia to 2.1% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. Despite minimal direct trade exposure to the US, the trade-reliant economy is vulnerable to weaker global demand as US President Donald Trump's trade war escalates. But Croatia should remain one of the fastest-grow ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovak Republic
We expect Slovakia's economy will grow 1.1% this year, outperforming the Eurozone average of 0.9% but falling behind CEE peers. Slovakia's large manufacturing sector is vulnerable to US tariffs, while lingering trade policy uncertainty will weigh on capital spending. The domestic economy wil ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan
We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Japan by 0.2ppts to 0.8% in 2025 and by 0.4ppts to 0.2% in 2026. Higher US tariffs and global trade policy uncertainty have prompted us to downgrade our projections for exports and business investment. We now think Japan's economy will barely grow in 20 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
Our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Chile remains unchanged at 2.4%, primarily driven by private consumption and supported by declining inflation and flexible financial conditions. Yet, we slightly revised our 2026 GDP growth forecast down by 0.1ppt to 2.3%. The abrupt global increase in tariffs and es ... Read More
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