Category: Financial Services
Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone
Declining global iron ore prices, slower mining production, weak governance and high inflation weakened Sierra Leone's economic growth in 2024. Furthermore, weak domestic demand and threats to global trade activity are key short-term risks. The country's agricultural sector also remains expo ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
We’ve cut our aggregate 2025 GDP growth forecast for EMs by 0.4ppts to 3.7% owing to the adverse impact of recently announced US tariffs on world trade. We've also lowered our EM growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2ppts to 3.7% to reflect a permanently weaker path for global trade, as well as reduced ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
This week's data offered very mixed signals on the pace of UK activity growth. Retail sales rose again in March, but the composite PMI plunged in April. In our view, both measures are deeply flawed. The retail data appears to suffer from seasonal adjustment problems, while the results of the S&a ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Front-loading ahead of tariffs will create a lot of volatility in the economic data released next week. There are mounting signs in the forward-looking data that a crunch in activity is coming. That helps to explain some of the moderation in the language on tariffs from the administration, suggestin ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger
Despite the closed Beninese-Nigerien border, Niger continues to transport oil to international markets. On February 24 this year, the government said it had successfully shipped 14.1 million barrels of oil through the 2,000-km pipeline that connects the Agadem oilfield in Niger with the Beninese Por ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Taiwan
We've downgraded Taiwan's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.8% y/y from 3.1% in light of the US administration's tariff announcements on April 2. The additional 32% tariff on Taiwan, and the tariffs on other major trading partners of the US (albeit subject to a 90-day suspension until early ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
We forecast the Belgian economy will expand by 1.1% this year and 1.6% next. Trade uncertainty will make businesses reluctant to invest. Not only will tariffs lower Belgium's direct exports to the US by making them more expensive, they will also affect demand for Belgian-produced inputs for othe ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Vietnam
We've lowered our forecasts for Vietnam's GDP growth by 0.7ppts to 6.2% y/y in 2025 and by 0.4ppts to 6.2% in 2026. Growth prospects have been downgraded due mainly to tariff-related concerns. Closer Chinese cooperation shouldn't fully offset these headwinds, too. Still, upside risks to ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania
Our real GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 3% y/y for 2025. Growth in 2024 slightly exceeded expectations at 2.7%, supported by a strong Q4 performance driven by resilient consumer spending and a rebound in fixed investment, following two consecutive quarters of contraction. We think that str ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil
We continue to expect GDP will expand by 1.2% this year, but have raised our projection for 2026 by 0.2ppts to 1.4% growth. Our updated forecast reflects developments in domestic fiscal policy and the reignited US trade war. President Lula da Silva's 2026 income tax reform is likely to lift hous ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
We kept our Norwegian 2025 mainland GDP growth forecast at 1.2%. Excluding petroleum, the economy has minimal direct trade exposure to the United States. Weaker global demand as US President Donald Trump ratchets up his global trade war will weigh on goods exports, but it doesn't overly impact t ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
We forecast UAE GDP growth at 4.7% in 2025, supported by the expected easing of OPEC+ production cuts from May. Non-oil momentum remains positive but is softening, with the March PMI slipping to 54 from 55. Rising cost pressures, weaker global demand, and increased uncertainty arising from the US ta ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
We've lowered our Eurozone GDP growth forecasts by 0.1ppt to 0.8% in 2025 and 0.2ppts to 1% in 2026 in response to the US tariff hikes. Although our assumptions about US-EU tariffs have not materially changed, new US tariffs will weaken demand for Eurozone exports and will result in a prolonged ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lesotho
Lesotho's economic growth remained elevated in Q4 2024 following a strong third quarter, boosted by phase two of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP-II). However, the 10% tariff on Lesotho’s exports to the US ‒ previously tariff-free thanks to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
Global volatility and uncertainty have heightened, and oil producers will likely be worse off. International capital and commodity markets were shaken when US President Donald Trump announced extremely severe reciprocal tariffs on April 2. Algerian companies were poised to pay a 30% tariff on goods ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We have trimmed our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Turkey by 0.1ppt to 2.8% given headwinds to export and investment dynamics from the global tariff uncertainty and domestic political crackdown. Although incoming data show a stronger Q1 than we expected a month ago, this is countered by downward revis ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France
We've left our forecast for GDP growth in France in 2025 unchanged at 0.5%, as the 10% US tariffs on European exports broadly match what was already part of our baseline. We've revised GDP growth for next year down slightly, from 1.0% to 0.8%, since global growth will be weaker and higher un ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
We have lowered our GDP forecasts for Ireland to 2.6% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, from 3.1% and 2.5% last month. Our assumptions on US-EU tariffs have not materially changed, but we now assume Irish exports of pharmaceutical products to the US will soon be subject to a 25% tariff, similar to other sec ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
March retail sales showed consumers are acting rationally by front-loading spending, particularly on vehicles. The Manheim used vehicle price index has resumed rising. The Manheim index generally leads consumer prices by two months. Our April forecast is that tariff induced inflation peaks midyear a ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Australia
We have downgraded our forecasts for Australia due to the major disruptions to the global economy caused by changes to US trade policy. We now expect growth of 1.8% in 2025 (down from 2.1%), and 2.1% in 2026 (from 2.5%). Australia's direct exposure to higher US trade barriers is low. But weaker ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
We have raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Spain by 0.1ppt to 2.7% amid indications that economic activity remains strong despite the adverse global environment. Spain stands to be relatively more insulated from the current trade war with the US than other European countries, and activity will ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
We've slashed our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Denmark by 1.4ppts to 1.8%. We assume that the US government will impose a 25% tariff on its imports of pharmaceuticals in late Q2, which will significantly affect Denmark's growth outlook due to the importance of pharmaceutical production for t ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
We have trimmed our GDP growth forecasts for Portugal to 2.4% for 2025 and 1.9% for 2026, down from 2.5% and 2.0% previously. The stronger-than-expected increase in US protectionism and continued high uncertainty drove this revision. Still, our growth forecasts are consistent with Portugal continuin ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
This week's labour market and inflation releases reported continued stickiness in the Bank of England's favoured measure of inflation and in pay growth. Evidence on the likely impact of this month's national insurance and national living wage rises has been mixed. Redundancy notification ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
The US administration's erratic trade policy prompts a downward revision of our GDP growth forecast for Greece. This primarily reflects reduced goods exports and fixed investment, as tariff-related uncertainty persuades firms to delay investment projects. ... Read More
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