Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador
We expect the economy to grow by 1.7% in 2015, a sharp slowdown from the strong pace of growth seen in 2011-13. The fall in government revenues from the oil sector resulting from the plunge in oil prices will inevitably force cutbacks to spending (otherwise the budget deficit will soar). And government spending accounts for a significant share of the economy (44% of GDP in 2013), so overall growth will be dampened. Moreover, in an effort to contain the fiscal and external deficits, the government is raising charges and tariffs, pushing up CPI inflation (to around 4%) and squeezing purchasing power. And there are downside risks to our forecast stemming from a potential balance of payments crisis if the adjustment process required to contain the 'twin' deficits is not handled well.
- : The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. - Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year