Category: Business Services & Administration
Business Services & Administration market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Costa Rica
We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Costa Rica by 0.4ppts to 3.6%. We expect private consumption will slow down due to the return of inflation to the lower bound of the central bank's target range, higher unemployment, and lower consumer confidence. Rate cuts in 2024 should support ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Côte d'Ivoire
We expect much of the Ivorian economy’s momentum to persist throughout 2025 due to robust secondary and tertiary sector activity. Increased oil and gas output and strong gold production will support industry growth this year. Concurrently, sustained expansions in trade and the financial and ICT indu ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Turkey at a below-consensus 1.9%, down from an estimated 2.7% expansion last year. The moderation in the January PMI and capacity utilisation rates suggests industry is not out of the woods despite a surge in output in December 2024. We don't think ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mauritius
Monetary authorities surprised with a 50-bps interest rate increase during its first meeting of the year. Committee members stated that central banks around the world are following divergent stances based on their own inflation and economic growth outlooks while flagging that the US Fed has followed ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Angola
Economic growth surpassed our expectations in 2024, but we still anticipate the Angolan economy to cool in 2025 due to a slower expansion in the oil sector. Elevated inflation, fiscal consolidation efforts, and continued dry weather conditions thwart the potential for higher real GDP growth. We fore ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Our GDP growth forecasts for Argentina are unchanged at a below-consensus 3.6% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. The strong recovery in Q3 2024 and resilience in Q4 2024 suggest a slowdown in the current quarter (0.0% q/q). The RIGI scheme to attract investment adds an upside risk to growth, while the La ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana
After a poor performance in the first half of last year, Botswana’s diamond industry continued to disappoint in Q3 2024, declining by 14.8% q/q. Although De Beers' latest production report indicates that Botswana’s diamond output rose in the final quarter of 2024, the production guidance for 202 ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
The narrative surrounding policymaking and its near-term economic impact has shifted dramatically from the January to February baseline forecast. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cameroon
The government's budgeted spending plans for the current fiscal year (FY, January to December 2025) are conservative. Yet, as is usually the case, we expect a supplementary budget to lift these spending targets halfway through the year. The budget also plans to reduce subsidies. While this is so ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malawi
We forecast Malawi's real GDP growth to recover to 2.6% this year from 1.7% in 2024. The improved forecast is based on an improved outlook for rainfall compared with last year's severe drought and the expected reopening of a uranium mine in September. However, the economy continues to be pla ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia
Namibia's economic growth slowed at the back end of last year because of cuts in diamond production and drought-induced losses in agricultural output. The external outlook has weakened somewhat since our previous forecast due to subdued expectations of global monetary policy easing and uncertain ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea
We think growth this year will likely fall back to a more moderate pace, after GDP growth in 2024 had likely continued the quick 3% pace from 2023. Long-term growth will stay weak due to sanctions and soft consumer demand from the country's main trading partner, China. The surge in ammunition an ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lesotho
Lesotho's economy recovered in Q3 2024, expanding by 3.6% y/y compared with 0.7% y/y in the previous quarter. The services and industrial sectors posted notable growth, especially in retail, construction, and water & electricity subsectors. We expect economic growth to accelerate to 2.8% in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Latvia by 0.4ppts to 2.3%. While we estimate a modest pick-up in activity in the final quarter of 2024 ended the year-long recession, the momentum at the turn of the year was soft. We expect recovery will proceed this year, setting the stage for the abo ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Vietnam
We expect Vietnam's GDP will grow by 6.9% this year, following a 7.1% expansion in 2024. Manufacturing exports will continue to be the main engine of growth this year, particularly electronics exports. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
Algeria's oil output remains below historical levels due to the country’s agreement to cut oil output within the Opec+ group. The group extended cuts through Q1 due to lower-than-expected global oil demand, but it could be even longer if the group again misses its demand forecast for the year. I ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman
We forecast Oman's GDP growth at 2.2% for this year, higher than the 1.5% estimate for 2024. In our 2025 growth outlook, we balance the delayed return to growth in the energy sector with a steady expansion of non-energy output, which we project at 3.0% (up from 2.8% previously). We think activit ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
We raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Croatia 0.8ppts to 2.6%. Sizeable historical revisions suggest that the economy was aggressively destocking last year. A gradual restocking process as industrial fortunes turn should support a quicker rebound than we expected. Over the next few years, GDP g ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Rwanda
Economic growth in Rwanda will likely lose momentum this year following a surprisingly better performance in 2024. We forecast real GDP to grow by 7.2% in 2025, following an estimated expansion of 8.7% last year. Below-average rainfall is predicted over H1 2025, which could diminish crop harvests wi ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Global EM
November activity data indicated economic activity in Brazil slowed significantly at the end of 2024, reinforcing our below-consensus GDP growth forecast of 1.8% for 2025. Monthly contractions in hard data indicators such as real retail sales, services revenue volumes, and industrial production sugg ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa
Economic conditions are mixed and modest positive momentum remains the order of the day. We have left South Africa's 2025 real GDP growth forecast unchanged at 1.5%, more than double the 2024 estimate of 0.7%. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
The data released this week confirmed the economy is still growing at a solid pace and inflation is gradually slowing, in line with our forecast. The big wild card remains the trade and immigration policies of the incoming administration. We will revise our February baseline to be in line with the i ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
We've kept our GDP growth forecasts for Portugal broadly unchanged at 1.9% for 2025 and 2.1% for 2026. Surging real disposable incomes and the EU's Recovery and Resilience Facility will support growth. The economy will also benefit from its continued strong tourism activity. But as tourism g ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We've kept our forecast for GDP growth in Turkey at a below-consensus 1.9%, although we see some upside risk given signs of slightly stronger activity at the turn of the year. The gradual slowdown in consumer spending is continuing according to credit card statistics, and we think the adjustment ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
There wasn’t much not to like in the December employment report and it increases the odds that we may have to remove the March 25bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve from the baseline. This wouldn’t significantly alter the contours of the forecast for GDP, inflation, or the labor market. ... Read More
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