Mobile Network Providers - US - February 2016

Mobile Network Providers - US - February 2016

"What with most adults already being cellular service subscribers, there is little to no opportunity to increase the number of subscriber lines, outside of nominal additions related to overall population growth. Simultaneously, the amount consumers have typically paid per month for service has shown little increase in the 21st century in total, and when inflation is taken into consideration, monthly spend has actually fallen."

- Billy Hulkower, Senior Technology Analyst

This report discusses the following key topics:

Near universal penetration leaves little room for subscriber growth
Majority satisfied, not interested in switching
WiFi, sponsored data to keep data plans in check


OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Figure 1: Cell phone ownership among adults and teens, April 2010-September 2015*
Figure 2: Intent to change carrier in next year and incidence of changing carrier in past year, December 2015
Figure 3: Reasons not to switch carriers, December 2015
Figure 4: Use of phones via WiFi networks at home and out-of-home, December 2015
The opportunities
Figure 5: Reasons for wanting to switch service, December 2015
Figure 6: Daily use of video on mobile phones by type of content, December 2015
Figure 7: Use of phones as mobile hotspot, December 2015
What it means
THE MARKET
What you need to know
Sales stall 2012-15
ARPU in long-term decline
Connected devices route to volume growth
New challenges in WiFi, cap-free video
Market size
Growth a challenge in mature market
Figure 8: Monthly ARPU, 2000-14
Figure 9: Number of laptops and tablets subscribed to mobile service, 2010-15
Figure 10: Total US wireless service revenues and forecast, at current prices, 2010-18
Industry on firmer footing when equipment sales are considered
Figure 11: Total US wireless service and equipment sales, 2012-14
Market perspective
At 95% of adults, adoption nearly complete
Figure 12: Cell phone ownership among adults and teens, April 2010-September 2015*
Impact of forced upgrade to tiered plans has lingering impact on pricing
Figure 13: Average monthly spend on mobile phone service, 2011-15
WiFi usage weighing down need for data
Figure 14: Frequency of use of phones via WiFi networks at home and out-of-home, December 2015
Figure 15: Cablevision Freewheel direct marketing, September 2015
Mobile video moves out of data caps
Market factors
Smartphones headed toward universal penetration
Figure 16: Ownership of phones, tablets, and computers, August 2015
Connected devices, tethering increase data consumption
Figure 17: Use of mobile phone as wireless hotspot, December 2015
Mobile video revenue cutting in three directions
Figure 18: Frequency of viewing video on mobile devices, by type of video, December 2015
KEY PLAYERS
What you need to know
Verizon and AT&T retain leadership in face of T-Mobile gains
Three brands carry interest from a quarter of switchers
New launches in mobile video
5G arriving sooner than expected
What’s working?
Premium tier retains lead
T-Mobile coming on strong
Figure 19: Market share of wireless brands, by household income, December 2015
Installment/upgrade programs drive equipment revenue higher
Figure 20: Wireless carrier equipment sale revenues, 2012-14
Figure 21: Use of connected devices and early upgrade programs, by carrier, December 2015
Figure 22: T-Mobile Jump On Demand online ad, December 2015
What’s struggling?
Sprint lags in consideration
T-Mobile pulling consideration from Sprint’s potential customers
MVNOs not top-of-mind
Figure 23: Providers under consideration as next carrier, December 2015
What’s next?
Streaming entertainment exiting data restrictions
Hotspot access
Verizon launching 5G in 2017
THE CONSUMER
What you need to know
Healthy adoption of connected device, early upgrade plans
Interest in changing service limited to a select few
Half of switchers looking for better network, better service
Majority satisfied with carrier, vast majority with internet service
Growth areas – Connected devices and early upgrades
Connected devices, early upgrade plans show mainstream adoption
Figure 24: Use of connected devices and early upgrade programs, December 2015
Switchers more devoted to connected devices, upgrades
Figure 25: Use of connected devices and early upgrade programs, by interest in switching providers, December 2015
Age, combined with income, drives adoption
Figure 26: Use of connected devices and early upgrade programs, by age and income, December 2015
Hispanics top users for connected devices and early upgrade plans
Figure 27: Use of connected devices and early upgrade programs, by race and Hispanic origin, December 2015
Urban lifestyle lends to adoption
Figure 28: Use of connected devices and early upgrade programs, by area, December 2015
Interest in switching carriers
Focusing on the few who matter
Figure 29: Intent to change carrier, December 2015
Younger age groups more likely to switch
Figure 30: Intent to change carrier, by age, December 2015
Connected device users more interested in switching
Figure 31: Intent to change carrier, by use of connected devices and dissatisfaction with internet service, December 2015
Hispanics carry elevated intention to change carriers
Figure 32: Intent to change carrier, by race and Hispanic origin, December 2015
Parents top demos for switching
Figure 33: Intent to change carrier, by children in household, December 2015
Reasons for switching carriers
Half switching to save money
Half switching for better service
Figure 34: Reasons for wanting to switch service, December 2015
Reasons for staying with current carrier
Majority anchored by satisfaction
Figure 35: Reasons for not wanting to change carrier, December 2015
Internet speeds sufficient for majority of smartphone owners
Figure 36: Satisfaction with current internet speeds among smartphone owners, December 2015
Younger age groups more likely to feel pushed into cheaper carriers
Figure 37: Reasons for not wanting to change carrier, by age, December 2015
Lower-income groups buy what they can afford
Figure 38: Reasons for not wanting to change carrier, by household income, December 2015
More Hispanics and Blacks feel constrained by price points
Figure 39: Reasons for not wanting to change carrier, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2015
Consumption of mobile video content
One in four streams video daily
Figure 40: Daily use of video on mobile phones by type of content, December 2015
Young men top target for mobile video services
Figure 41: Daily use of video on mobile phones, by gender and age, December 2015
Urbanites more likely to be daily streamers
Figure 42: Daily use of video on mobile phones, by area, December 2015
Blacks a top audience for mobile video
Figure 43: Daily use of video on mobile phones, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2015
APPENDIX
Data sources and abbreviations
Data sources
Abbreviations and terms
Additional consumer data
Figure 44: Use of connected devices and early upgrade programs, by age and gender, December 2015
Figure 45: Daily use of video on mobile phones, by carrier, December 2015
Figure 46: Daily use of video on mobile phones, by number of devices on plan, December 2015
US Research Methodology
Consumer research
Social Media Research
Trade research
Statistical Forecasting

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