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Project Fi: Twenty Percent Carrier Market Share Loss in 20 Months

Project Fi: Twenty Percent Carrier Market Share Loss in 20 Months

Google positions Project Fi as a program to deliver a fast, easy wireless experience in close partnership with leading carriers, hardware makers, and our users. The company use will more than a million Wi-Fi hotspots that it will use as the foundation of its network, filling in the gaps with cellular based on deals with Sprint and T-Mobile.

Mind Commerce predicts that AT&T and Verizon will lose 20% of their cellular customers within 20 months of the launch of Google’s Project Fi. The immediate driver for that may be a simple churn of customers away from the number one and number two providers toward the number three (Sprint) and number four (T-Mobile). However, other market forces will contribute to that 20% loss of market share.

Two concepts support this premise: disruption and disaggregation. Verizon and AT&T's premium mobile services are disrupted and disaggregated by low cost Wi-Fi and VoIP offerings offered through competing mobile providers, cable providers and Wi-Fi-only services. All purchases of Mind Commerce reports includes time with an expert analyst who will help you link key findings in the report to the business issues you're addressing. This needs to be used within three months of purchasing the report.

Target Audience:

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General Methodology

Mind Commerce Publishing's research methodology encompasses input from a wide variety of sources.

We rely heavily upon our Subject Matter Experts (SME) in terms of their market knowledge, unique perspective, and vision. We utilize SME industry contacts as well as previous customers and participants in our market surveys and interactive interviews.

In addition, we rely upon our extensive internal database, which contains modeling, qualitative analysis, and quantitative data. We review secondary sources and compare to our primary sources to update previous findings (for prior version reports) and/or compile baseline information for technology and market modeling.

We share preliminary models with industry contacts (select previous clients, experts, and thought leaders) to verify the veracity of initial modeling. Prior to final report production (analysis, findings, and conclusions), we engage in an internal review with internal SMEs as well as cross-expertise, senior staff members to challenge results.

We believe that forecasts should be prepared as part of an integrated process which involves both quantitative as well as qualitative factors. We follow the following 3-step process for forecasting.

Forecasting Methodology

Step 1 - Forecasts Input: The inputs for the present and historical revenues are derived from industry players. Financial and other quantitative data for individual sub-market categories are derived from original research and tested with interviews with major industry constituents.

Step 2 - Forecasting of Future Years: Mind Commerce extends forecasts based on a variety of factors including demand drivers as well as supply side data. Key success factors and assumptions are considered.

Step 3 - Validation of Data: The final step is to validate projections, which is accomplished in consultation with both internal and external industry experts, including both topic and regional experts. Adjustments are made to the forecasts based on factors identified throughout this process.


1.0 Executive Summary
2.0 Introduction
2.1 The 80/80 Rule: What Drives Migration from Premium Cellular?
3.0 Introduction: VoWi-Fi - The 5th largest Mobile Provider?
4.0 Technology Overview
4.1 Cellular
4.2 Wi-Fi
4.3 VoIP
4.4 Wi-Fi FirstSM
4.5 Carrier Wi-Fi
4.6 Cable Wi-Fi
4.7 Hotspot 2.0
4.8 Softphone
5.0 Breakdown of the 20% Migration Away From AT&T and Verizon
6.0 Implications of Project Fi
7.0 Churn to Competing Cellular Providers With Aggressive Wi-Fi Strategy
8.0 Migration to Cable Quadruple Plays
8.1 Total Market Domination by Cable Providers: Wi-Fi = Quadruple Play
8.2 What If All Cable Providers Offered VowiFi?
9.0 Migration to VoWiFi Plays
9.1 Scratch
9.2 Republic Wireless
9.3 FreedomPop
9.4 Cablevision's Freewheel
10.0 Key Take Aways: Objections, Market Drivers, Predictions, Winners and Losers
10.1 Objections to VoWiFi
10.2 Market Drivers
10.3 Predictions
10.4 Winners
10.5 Losers
11.0 Conclusions
Figures
Figure 1: What Drives Migration – 80% of Time there is No Mobile Connection
Figure 2: Market Share by major cellular providers in US 2011 - 2014
Figure 3: Total Market Domination by Cable Providers via Quadruple Play
Figure 4: How Scratch Customers use Wi-Fi and Data
Figure 5: Profile of Scratch Customers - Use of VoWiFi and Cellular
Tables
Table 1: Subscriber Counts for Top Cellular Providers in USA
Table 2: Comparison of VoWiFi plays that challenge AT&T, Verizon Market Share
Table 3: Value comparisons AT&T, Verizon vs. cellular competitors and Project Fi;
Table 4: US Cable Providers with One Million or More Subscribers
Table 5: Objections to VoWiFi

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