Mobile Value-added Services (VAS) in 4G: Market Analysis and Forecasts for LTE-based VAS 2013 - 2018
In the pre-LTE marketplace, the biggest mobile value-added services (VAS) are mobile apps and mobile advertising. This does not change simply with the introduction of LTE, as there will only be roughly 184 million LTE subscribers globally against 7.2 billion subs overall by year end 2013. A transformation will occur over a period of years in which certain key mobile VAS applications will establish a sustainable market position for the network operators. In fact, this must occur for carriers to establish new revenue streams for business growth beyond core voice and data services as well as anticipated margin squeeze.
The first part of this report assesses the current state of LTE. The report then analyzes value-added services (VAS) in the post LTE era. The research takes an umbrella approach as it evaluates data, mobile advertising, and mobile apps first, and then considers market verticals. Mind Commerce explains how revenues are realized in each market. Mind Commerce examines Rich Communications Suite (RCS) and Voice over LTE (VoLTE). The report describes how the market will develop, in general, and also evaluate what countries are likely to adopt VoLTE by taking a detailed look at infrastructure, spectrum, and the competitive landscape in each country.
The report includes forecasts for 2013 – 2018 for every major VAS application category including:
- Mobile Data
- Voice over LTE (VoLTE)
- Rich Communication Suite (RCS)
- Mobile Advertising
- API-based Apps
- Social Networking
- Coupons and Loyalty
- Mobile Gaming
- Mobile Virtual Goods
- Video, TV, and Second Screen
- Mobile Health
- Mobile Entertainment
- Machine-to-Machine (M2M)
- Connected Vehicles
- Public Safety
- Messaging (non RCS)
- Small Cell Targeted Advertising
The report includes conclusions and recommendations for network operators, content providers, application developers, and infrastructure providers. The Report also includes vendor analysis from selected companies including Empirix, OpenCloud, Openmind Networks, Samsung, and Tropo.
Challenges to carrier business include existing concerns, such as Over-the-Top (OTT) service providers, as well as emerging threats such as Direct (Peer-to-Peer) Communications, which shall ironically be enabled via LTE.
Network operators must deal with the threat of these “dial around” voice over wireless IP (or VoIP over Wireless OTT) OTT service providers by offering their own “dialable” VoIP. Dialable VoIP is enabled through Voice over LTE (VoLTE). Network operators must also offer Rich Communications Suite (RCS) as a multimedia VAS application to combat OTT competition. Carriers must also embrace API integration with various third-parties to offer their own VAS.
It is our strong recommendation to incumbent carriers that they recognize that core bearer based revenues will go down over time. They must leverage LTE infrastructure and capabilities to offer their own differentiating capabilities including premium-priced VAS applications
- Global and regional forecast for key apps: VoLTE and RCS
- Forecasts for 2013 – 2018 for every major LTE VAS application
- Identify challenges and opportunities for LTE services providers
- Understand the business drivers and key success factors for VoLTE and RCS
- Identify opportunities for infrastructure providers and application developers
- Understand LTE technology and supporting next generation network infrastructure
- Identify emerging opportunities including Connected Vehicles and Small Cell Advertising
- OSS/BSS Solution Providers
- Mobile Network Operators
- Mobile Software Developers
- Mobile Payment Service Providers
- Handset and Tablet Manufacturers
- Content and Applications Mediators
- Social Commerce Vendors and providers
- Mobile Marketing and Advertising Providers
- Telecommunications Infrastructure Providers
Mind Commerce Publishing's research methodology encompasses input from a wide variety of sources.
We rely heavily upon our Subject Matter Experts (SME) in terms of their market knowledge, unique perspective, and vision. We utilize SME industry contacts as well as previous customers and participants in our market surveys and interactive interviews.
In addition, we rely upon our extensive internal database, which contains modeling, qualitative analysis, and quantitative data. We review secondary sources and compare to our primary sources to update previous findings (for prior version reports) and/or compile baseline information for technology and market modeling.
We share preliminary models with industry contacts (select previous clients, experts, and thought leaders) to verify the veracity of initial modeling. Prior to final report production (analysis, findings, and conclusions), we engage in an internal review with internal SMEs as well as cross-expertise, senior staff members to challenge results.
We believe that forecasts should be prepared as part of an integrated process which involves both quantitative as well as qualitative factors. We follow the following 3-step process for forecasting.
Step 1 - Forecasts Input:
The inputs for the present and historical revenues are derived from industry players. Financial and other quantitative data for individual sub-market categories are derived from original research and tested with interviews with major industry constituents.
Step 2 - Forecasting of Future Years:
Mind Commerce extends forecasts based on a variety of factors including demand drivers as well as supply side data. Key success factors and assumptions are considered.
Step 3 - Validation of Data:
The final step is to validate projections, which is accomplished in consultation with both internal and external industry experts, including both topic and regional experts. Adjustments are made to the forecasts based on factors identified throughout this process.