Sweden - Telecommunication Services: Highly protected market (Strategy, Performance and Risk Analysis)
Sweden’s telecom market is saturated. Mobile user penetration reached 80%, with growth potential due to increase with the adoption of new technologies through innovation. Mobile subscription base increased from 14.3 million in 2012 to 14.9 million in 2016, and had a subscription penetration level of 148.6% in 2016. It is expected to reach 16.9 million in 2021 with a corresponding penetration level of 158.1% in 2021 due to increased adoption of mobile phones and data usage.
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Data revenue to increase
Higher demand and usage of mobile data, along with the simultaneous adoption of smartphones, are expected to drive the rise in total mobile service revenues at a CAGR of 7.5% during the forecast period, to reach US$1,909 million by 2021. Given a penetration of 80% in 2016, the Sweden telecom market is still developing with mobile voice revenues at US$2,960.1 million in 2016, as opposed to mobile data revenues which registered US$1,331.4 million in the same year. Increased usage is expected to increase data revenues at a CAGR of 7.5% during the forecast period, while voice revenue is expected to decline at a CAGR of -4.0% over the same period.
Strong support from growth in postpaid subscriptions
Sweden is expected to have 16.9 million mobile subscriptions by 2021, growing at a CAGR of 2.6% during over the forecast period. This translates to the subscription density (% of population) increasing from 148.6% in 2016 to 158.1% in 2021. Postpaid mobile subscriptions at 11.3 million outnumbered prepaid at 3.5 million in 2016. Also, postpaid subscriptions are expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.0% during 2016-21, while prepaid are expected to decline at a CAGR of -2.5% over the same period.
Increase in adoption of LTE
UMTS is currently the leading technology platforms for mobile subscription. Many players have already adopted these platforms to offer better services. However, with increase in penetration and auction of the 1800MHz band, subscriptions based on the Long Term Evolution (LTE) platform are expected to pick up. In 2016, there were more than 3.5 million LTE users in the country and this is expected to increase to 10.0 million in 2021.
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