IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Banking 2023 Predictions

IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Banking 2023 Predictions

This IDC study provides IDC's 2023 top 10 predictions for banking. Predicting the future of banking and the implications of technology strategies at financial institutions has become more and more difficult over the past three years. But IDC believes that the predictions in this document will enable banks to overcome the challenges of rigid architectures and strategies and put those institutions in a better position to navigate the dynamic, and sometimes chaotic, market environments of the future. "Today's goal for banking worldwide is to overcome the immediate challenges in the markets, while mapping out a longer-term strategy for growth and innovation during calmer times," said Jerry Silva, research vice president, IDC Financial Insights. "The banks that can map out strategic investments, leveraging appropriate technologies, will be best prepared to remain resilient and profitable in any situation."

Please Note: Extended description available upon request.


IDC FutureScape Figure
Executive Summary
IDC FutureScape Predictions
Summary of External Drivers
Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers
Prediction 1: By 2026, 40% of Global Banks Will Have a Strategy of Standing Up a Digital Core Banking System Alongside Its Current Application, Without the Urgency of Replacing the Legacy System Entirely
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 2: In an Effort to Increase Global Resiliency and Scale, 30% of the World's Top Banks Will Be Sharing Data, Applications, and Operations in Multi-Industry Ecosystem Environments by 2025
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 3: By 2027, One in Five Global Banks Will Abandon the CSAT as a Measure of Customer Experience and Adopt the CES — Customer Effort Correlated to Outcomes as a Key Indicator of Journey Satisfaction and Success
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Business Impact
Guidance
Prediction 4: Ransomware and Other Cybersecurity Attacks Will Remain a Serious Threat and Will Increase by 20% from 2022 Through 2024, Mostly Because of Phishing Attacks and Weak Password Construction
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 5: By 2027, 10% of Attempted Identity Fraud Will Be Reduced Because of More Sophisticated AI/ML and Deep Learning Algorithms by Leveraging Available Data Through Open Banking Sources
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 6: Driven by Increasing Technical Complexity and Growing Numbers of Payment Rails, 50% of Global Banks Will Adopt Payments as a Service for Some or All Payment Processing Workloads by 2028
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 7: Fueled by Mobile BNPL Applications and Mobile Wallets, BNPL and Similar Installment Payment Methods Will Capture 7% of Online Purchase Transactions by 2026
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 8: By 2028, 50% of Corporates Will Practice Enterprise Liquidity Management Requiring Banks to Deliver API-Based, Real-Time Data Services and Transactional Services to Centralize Treasury Operations
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 9: By 2027, 50% of New Securities Issued Globally Will Be Issued as NFTs (or Blockchain-Based Tokens), as a Technology Channel for Private and Public Equities and Debt
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 10: By 2025, 50% of Lending Portfolios of Tier 1 Global Banks Will Be Clearly Linked to Sustainability
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Advice for Technology Buyers
External Drivers: Detail
Storms of Disruption — Accelerating, Interconnected Uncertainty
Cybersecurity and Risk — Scaling and Evolving Threat Environment
Digital Business — Stepping Stone to the Future Enterprise
Meaningful Intelligence — Differentiated Decision Power
Ecosystem-Based Innovation — Driving Enterprise Value
Mainstream ESG — Sustainability Is Measured and Mandatory
Everything as a Service — Thriving Through the Change
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