Satellite's Growth Engines

Satellite's Growth Engines

UHDTV - HTS and LEO constellations - Inflight Connectivity

The space industry seems confident in the future of the sector, especially according to manufacturers' forecasts, which show that about 20 telecommunications satellite orders per year are anticipated until 2020.

This study aims to analyse the growth potential of three market segments that seem particularly promising sources of innovation and growth: UHDTV, inflight broadband Internet connectivity and inflight mobile communications.

For each of these market segments, the report seeks an understanding of what trade-offs exist in terms of range of services, player strategies, business models and technology solutions.

The expected impact of these market segments on the space industry is also evaluated and illustrated as market forecasts for 2020.

This study aims to answer the following questions in particular:

  • Will Ultra HD drive the future of satellite TV broadcasting?
  • Will LEO constellation projects bear fruit and will they revolutionise the broadband satellite market?
  • Does the inflight connectivity market represent a real growth driver for satellite or is it to suffer from competition from terrestrial solutions, particularly LTE?

1. Executive Summary
1.1. Ultra HD, a new growth driver for satellite TV broadcasting
1.2. Satellite broadband Internet benefiting from HTS technology and challenged by LEO constellations projects
1.3. Rapid development of the inflight connectivity market
2. Methodology & definitions
2.1. General methodology of IDATE's reports
2.2. Methodology specific to this report and forecasting methodology
2.2.1. Note regarding the methodology for forecasting the satellite broadband market
2.2.2. Note regarding the methodology for forecasting the inflight connectivity market
2.2.3. Note regarding the methodology for forecasting the Ultra HD TV market
3. Ultra HD, breathing new life into the satellite TV broadcast market
3.1. Developments in TV technologies
3.1.1. UHD and related technologies
3.1.2. Quantum Dot (QDots) technology
3.1.3. OLED technology
3.1.4. TVs, primary driver of market growth in a diverse technological context
3.1.5. UHD, a growth driver for the TV set market
3.2. Player strategies
3.2.1. Audiovisual industry more confident about the future of UHD
3.2.2. OTT video services are driving the 4K content distribution market, especially on TVs
3.2.3. Manufacturers looking to partner with content producers and video service publishers to promote their UHD TVs
3.2.4. Could 4K Blu-ray help push UHD for the movie industry?
3.2.5. First announcements of UHD channels from secondary players
3.2.6. Major FTA players continuing tests but not considering commercial launch... before moving to 8K?
3.2.7. Distributors also actively testing
3.2.8. Signs that the market is structuring around players that complement each other
3.3. Satellite positioned well for distributing UHD
3.3.1. Satellite networks provide high quality distribution of video content
3.3.2. Growth drivers and barriers to UHD development
3.3.3. Ultra HD, a growth driver for satellite operators: market forecasts for 2020
4. New market opportunities for satellite broadband access services
4.1. Broadband Internet benefiting from HTS technology
4.1.1. The new generation of HTS satellite systems
4.1.2. North America the primary market driver, but Europe taking off
4.1.3. Good market potential, but challenges remain
4.2. Will LEO constellations disrupt the sector?
4.2.1. Projects designed to complement global Internet coverage
4.2.2. Considerable challenges for these new constellations
4.3. Growth of satellite broadband: Market forecasts for 2020
5. The flourishing market of inflight mobile communications
5.1. State of the market: services and business models
5.1.1. Rapid growth of services
5.1.2. Slower uptake of new usages
5.1.3. Differentiated business practices and models
5.2. Player strategies and technology choices
5.2.1. Satellite, the traditional technology
5.2.2. The use of terrestrial technologies: Air-to-ground and LTE
5.2.3. What about hybrid satellite and LTE solutions?
5.3. The growing market of inflight connectivity: Market forecasts for 2020
Table 1: The three main LEO constellation projects
Table 2: UHD TV sales, 2015-2019
Table 3: Satellite compatibility with UHD using HEVC (36 MHz equivalent transponder)
Table 4: Positioning comparison between different broadcast networks
Table 5: Advances in satellite broadband technology
Table 6: Broadband coverage by speed in a selection of European countries, 2013
Table 7: Features of Verizon's LTE fixed access plans
Table 8: Features of Vodafone Germany's LTE fixed access plans
Table 9: Key triple play marketing practices on satellite
Table 10: The three main LEO constellation projects
Table 11: Comparison of inflight connectivity offerings from various airline companies
Figure 1: UHD TV penetration rates
Figure 2: Number of transponders used for broadcasting UHD TV services and UHD market valuation, in Europe and the United States, 2014-2020
Figure 3: Capacity of various Ka-band satellites
Figure 4: Forecasts for satellite broadband subscribers in Europe and the United States, 2014-2018
Figure 5: Number of broadband-connected commercial airlines, 2014-2020
Figure 6: Resolution comparison for different generations
Figure 7: UHD TV deployment phases
Figure 8: Calendar for adoption of the HEVC codec
Figure 9: Future TV technology roadmap
Figure 10: TV sales by region, 2015-2019
Figure 11: Connectable and non-connectable TVs sold worldwide
Figure 12: Share of connectable and non-connectable TVs sold worldwide, by region, 2015
Figure 13: Distribution of Ultra HD TV sales worldwide by geographical region in 2019
Figure 14: UHD TV installed base
Figure 15: UHD TV penetration rates
Figure 16: The impact of HDR on perceived image quality
Figure 17: DishTV's new 4K Joey STB
Figure 18: Number of UHD channels broadcast by satellite in Europe and the United States, 2014-2020
Figure 19: Number of transponders used for broadcasting UHDTV services and UHD market valuation, Europe and the United States, 2014-2020
Figure 20: Triple play satellite architecture
Figure 21: Capacity of various Ka-band satellites
Figure 22: Coverage of the Epic platform
Figure 23: Satellite broadband offered by Viasat: WildBlue subscriptions in Texas
Figure 24: Tooway satellite broadband subscription plans
Figure 25: Hourly download speed performance as % of theoretical speed advertised by ISPs, September 2013
Figure 26: Broadband coverage in Europe (EU28) by technology, 2012 and 2013
Figure 27: Broadband coverage in Europe (EU28) by technology in rural areas, 2012 and 2013
Figure 28: Residential LTE vs satellite price positioning in Germany, August 2014
Figure 29: SES's installation Guide for the 'Point and Play' modem
Figure 30: Illustration of the LeoSat constellation
Figure 31: Illustration of a OneWeb satellite
Figure 32: OneWeb's user terminal
Figure 33: Satellite broadband subscribers' forecasts, in North America and in Europe, 2014-2018
Figure 34: Satellite and latency
Figure 35: Gimballed antenna vs phased array antenna
Figure 36: Difference between wide and spot beams
Figure 37: Coverage of Gogo's ATG network
Figure 38: Summary of the ATG proposal made by Qualcomm
Figure 39: Bands identified by Alcatel-Lucent in 2012
Figure 40: Solution tested by Deutsche Telekom with Airbus and Alcatel-Lucent
Figure 41: Prototype of an LTE antenna mounted on the aircraft and used for the trial flight
Figure 42: Arguments put forward by Deutsche Telekom for LTE
Figure 43: Huawei's eWBB solution
Figure 44: Evolution of technologies used by Gogo and proposed connectivity performance
Figure 45: Frequency, speeds and coverage of Gogo's ATG4 technology
Figure 46: 2Ku system with two antennas
Figure 47: Number of broadband-connected commercial airlines, 2014-2020

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