Digital Europe 2030

Digital Europe 2030

Are traditional sector leaders coming to the rescue of digital Europe?

This report analyses four development scenarios for Digital Europe in 2030.

The purpose is to measure whether Europe can leverage its power in certain verticals that are poised to be radically altered by digital tech.

And to analyse its capacity to hold its own against, chiefly Chinese and American, players that dominate most digital segments.

The report draws on forward-looking analysis work from four workshops conducted with higher education establishment, CNAM, and some dozen participating companies (Accenture, Eiffage, Exfo, France Télévisions, Orange, TDF, Valeo, Vinci, etc.) and institutions (Arcep, CDC, Cigref, DGE).

1. Summary
1.1. Background and approach
1.1.1. European groups are leaders in some traditional sectors
1.1.2. Europe lagging behind in the digital sector
1.1.3. Why use foresight to create development scenarios?
1.2. Four future scenarios for digital Europe
1.3. Determinants identified
2. Four scenarios for digital Europe in 2030
2.1. “Low Cost” scenario
2.1.1. Consumers seeking the lowest prices
2.1.2. A dynamic digital services market dominated by OTT players
2.1.3. European vertical leaders, relegated to their core business, face the threat of OTT players encroaching on customer-related functions
2.1.4. A regulatory framework that is ultimately not very restrictive
2.2. “Hunting in Packs” scenario
2.2.1. A favourable economic and regulatory environment for European leaders
2.2.2. European champions form an alliance and position themselves in the digital market
2.2.3. Data sharing is fundamental to the alliance
2.2.4. A new healthy balance for all players
2.3. “Sovereignty” scenario
2.3.1. Crisis of confidence
2.3.2. Public authorities work to protect the system
2.3.3. A secure, less open future environment
2.4. “Start-up Continent” scenario
2.4.1. Tech-savvy citizens want personalised services that they control
2.4.2. Start-ups drive this scenario by collaborating with vertical leaders and championing openness
2.4.3. A more open Europe supporting the ecosystem
3. Methodology
3.1. General principles
3.2. The three steps of the process
3.2.1. Defining the foresight system
3.2.2. Exploring the hypotheses
3.2.3. Drawing up scenarios
3.3. Acknowledgements
List of tables and figures
Table 1: European groups that are global leaders
Table 2: European leaders by global ranking
Figure 1: Digital markets by region, 2017
Figure 2: Digital companies and their ranking
Figure 3: Car2go member growth
Figure 4: Four scenarios for digital Europe in 2030
Figure 5: Evolving trust and use of social media, 2010-2017
Figure 6: Willingness to share personal data in exchange for rewards, Europe
Figure 7: OTT platform share in hotel room reservations, Europe
Figure 8: C-V2X use cases
Figure 9: World’s top 10 media groups by turnover, 2017
Figure 10: World market share of container shipping companies
Figure 11: Cyberattacks worldwide
Figure 12: Feelings towards European certification among wary consumers
Figure 13: Feelings towards personalised services
Figure 14: Integration of the carpooling service on
Figure 15: Retail solution by Dunnhumby, a Tesco subsidiary
Figure16: Three steps of the foresight process
Figure17: Six dimensions of the foresight system for the scenarios of Digital Europe 2030

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