5G & profitability - Market variables shaping rollouts
5G is coming at a time when mobile data use shows no signs of waning, in markets where value is not always easy to maintain.
5G also ushers in new rollout constraints, notably with the advent of new (mmWave) frequencies.
This report looks into the following questions:
Can 5G meet expectations tied to heavier use?
Does the economic equation hold up in terms of value in a mobile market that is mature – if not saturated – in some countries?
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Modelling 5G network costs
- 2.1. Two market development scenarios
- 2.2. Breakdown of the hypotheses by area
- 2.3. Network modelled on an existing system
- 3. Understanding market data
- 3.1. ARPU that depends on the intensity of market competition
- 3.2. Mobile revenue holding steady in three-operator markets
- 3.3. Data consumption depends on sales strategies
- 3.4. IoT not yet a major factor in altering data consumption
- 4. Impact of increased use
- 4.1. Current scenario: consumption driven by video and increasingly widespread use
- 4.2. Disruptive scenario: new devices and/or data rate
- List of tables and figures
- Figure 1: Two scenarios based on market hypotheses
- Figure 2: The main hypotheses influencing equipment costs
- Figure 3: How network modelling works
- Figure 4: Median ARPU with purchasing power parity
- Figure 5: ARPU progression in Italy
- Figure 6: Annual growth of mobile revenue depending on the number of operators
- Figure 7: Estimated average regional 3G & 4G data consumption, per smartphone
- Figure 8: Relationship between average 3G-4G data consumption per mobile subscriber and average revenue per Gb consumed
- Figure 9: Median 3G-4G data consumption per smartphone, by type of market, according to the year 4G was adopted
- Figure 10: Impact of different IoT types on network rollouts
- Figure 11: Progression of 5G revenue by application, 2020-2030, worldwide
- Figure 12: Current scenario: 5G cell site density per km2 by 2030, per operator
- Figure 13: Current scenario: average cost of the deployed network over 10 years, per 5G subscriber
- Figure 14: Disruptive scenario: 5G cell site density per km2 by 2030, per operator
- Figure 15: Disruptive scenario: average cost of the deployed network over 10 years, per 5G subscriber
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