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The Geopolitics of Supply Chains: From Globalization to Fragmentation

Publisher HHeuristics
Published Oct 15, 2025
Length 22 Pages
SKU # HHE20468971

Description

Geoeconomic realignment is reshaping production networks across semiconductors, energy, and advanced manufacturing. The analysis explores how national security, trade policy, and technological rivalry are driving supply-chain diversification and nearshoring. Scenarios through 2035 map the transition from a single global system to multiple regional industrial ecosystems, with implications for competitiveness, resilience, and corporate strategy.

Geopolitical tensions, technological sovereignty, and industrial strategy are reshaping the global supply-chain landscape. This report dissects the drivers of deglobalization, regionalization, and “friend-shoring,” analyzing impacts across manufacturing, energy, and technology sectors. It offers scenario forecasts through 2035 and strategic insights into how nations and corporations are reengineering trade and production systems for a more fragmented world.

Table of Contents

22 Pages
Executive Summary: The Strategic Reordering of Global Production
Overview of post-globalization dynamics and regional power shifts
Structural vulnerabilities revealed by the pandemic and geopolitical tension
Investment, trade, and national security dimensions of supply-chain realignment
Key strategic themes: resilience, redundancy, and regionalization
Introduction: The End of Hyper-Globalization
Historical evolution of global supply chains (1980s–2020s)
Drivers of globalization and subsequent fragmentation
The intersection of economic efficiency, sovereignty, and risk
Overview of new trade blocs and industrial power centers
Globalization Under Strain: The Shock Decade (2010–2025)
Key inflection points: trade wars, pandemics, and technological rivalry
The U.S.–China trade conflict and export control regimes
Energy shocks, shipping bottlenecks, and inflationary spillovers
Lessons learned from semiconductor, energy, and critical mineral shortages
Geoeconomics and Industrial Policy in the 21st Century
The resurgence of industrial strategy and state intervention
National initiatives: U.S. CHIPS and Science Act, EU Green Deal Industrial Plan, Japan’s reindustrialization
Fiscal tools for reshoring, friend-shoring, and supply diversification
Economic security frameworks and industrial competitiveness
Regionalization and Supply-Chain Realignment
North America: USMCA integration, IRA incentives, and nearshoring to Mexico
Europe: Strategic autonomy, green industrial policy, and Eastern European manufacturing growth
Asia-Pacific: China+, ASEAN, and India’s emergence as a global hub
Global South: The rise of Africa and Latin America in resource and manufacturing networks
Technology and Energy as Geostrategic Levers
Semiconductor supply chains as geopolitical infrastructure
Renewable energy and critical mineral dependencies
Digital infrastructure and cloud geopolitics
The strategic intersection of technology, energy, and national power
Security, Trade, and Alliance Formation
Reorganization of global alliances and trade corridors
The Quad, AUKUS, and EU–U.S. Trade and Technology Council (TTC)
Weaponization of trade and sanctions policy
Supply-chain diplomacy and friend-shoring frameworks
Corporate Strategy and Supply-Chain Adaptation
Business response to deglobalization: diversification and redundancy
Multi-sourcing and regional manufacturing ecosystems
Supply-chain transparency, traceability, and ESG compliance
Case studies: Apple, Tesla, and Foxconn regional shifts
Risks, Costs, and Economic Trade-Offs
Inflationary impacts of reshoring and duplication
Talent shortages and infrastructure gaps
Capital allocation, risk premiums, and long-term productivity effects
Balancing resilience with efficiency in corporate and policy decisions
Future Outlook: From Global Networks to Strategic Ecosystems
Scenario modeling for 2030–2040 supply-chain structures
The rise of regional industrial blocs
Implications for trade governance, logistics, and global finance
Strategic recommendations for governments and multinational firms

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