
Strategic Intelligence - NATO
Description
Strategic Intelligence - NATO
Summary
NATO is part of GlobalData's Strategic Intelligence series of reports on cybersecurity and its impacts across different industries. NATO is essential in the defense industry, as a the political and military Alliance includes many of the largest spenders on defense. To overcome an era of heightened geopolitical risk, companies, nations, and militaries are increasingly adopting a collaborative approach. This approach involves acquisitions, sharing information on threats with their NATO Allies, and reporting overall defense spending.
This report explores emergent trends within the NATO market, examining use cases and the implementation of emerging technologies such as drones, and what challenges must be considered in pursuing effective strategies for brand building in this market.In 2025, NATO faces four significant challenges stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the rise of isolationist sentiments in America. Recent years have created several challenges for the North Atlantic, including defense spending complacency, defense industrial supply chain issues, a disjointed approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine, and a wavering commitment from the most powerful member of the Alliance. While a supermajority of NATO’s 32 members spends more than 2.0% of GDP on defense, some of the largest members do not meet NATO’s target or spend the minimum to do so. Moreover, widespread low economic growth has limited defense spending and austerity has often slowed the growth of defense budgets.
The transatlantic defense industry has shrunk since the Cold War and NATO Allies have struggled to put together a defense industrial base to deter aggression from Russia, as well as threats in NATO’s “southern neighborhoods” and the wider world. Russia’s war in Ukraine is the driving factor for NATO’s recent resurgence in importance. By the start of 2025, Europe and the US had contributed $180 billion in military aid to Ukraine. Despite this, the Alliance’s messaging about the war has been fragmented, particularly since the reelection of US President Donald Trump in November 2024. The victory raised questions about US commitment to the Alliance. During his campaign, President Trump did not pledge his commitment to the Washington Treaty’s Article 5 which stipulates an obligation to collective defense, and said he would “encourage” aggressors “to do whatever the hell they want” to Allies that, in his eyes, did not spend enough on defense.
There are positives for NATO. At its summer 2025 summit, members are expected to agree to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035.
Key Highlights
Summary
NATO is part of GlobalData's Strategic Intelligence series of reports on cybersecurity and its impacts across different industries. NATO is essential in the defense industry, as a the political and military Alliance includes many of the largest spenders on defense. To overcome an era of heightened geopolitical risk, companies, nations, and militaries are increasingly adopting a collaborative approach. This approach involves acquisitions, sharing information on threats with their NATO Allies, and reporting overall defense spending.
This report explores emergent trends within the NATO market, examining use cases and the implementation of emerging technologies such as drones, and what challenges must be considered in pursuing effective strategies for brand building in this market.In 2025, NATO faces four significant challenges stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the rise of isolationist sentiments in America. Recent years have created several challenges for the North Atlantic, including defense spending complacency, defense industrial supply chain issues, a disjointed approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine, and a wavering commitment from the most powerful member of the Alliance. While a supermajority of NATO’s 32 members spends more than 2.0% of GDP on defense, some of the largest members do not meet NATO’s target or spend the minimum to do so. Moreover, widespread low economic growth has limited defense spending and austerity has often slowed the growth of defense budgets.
The transatlantic defense industry has shrunk since the Cold War and NATO Allies have struggled to put together a defense industrial base to deter aggression from Russia, as well as threats in NATO’s “southern neighborhoods” and the wider world. Russia’s war in Ukraine is the driving factor for NATO’s recent resurgence in importance. By the start of 2025, Europe and the US had contributed $180 billion in military aid to Ukraine. Despite this, the Alliance’s messaging about the war has been fragmented, particularly since the reelection of US President Donald Trump in November 2024. The victory raised questions about US commitment to the Alliance. During his campaign, President Trump did not pledge his commitment to the Washington Treaty’s Article 5 which stipulates an obligation to collective defense, and said he would “encourage” aggressors “to do whatever the hell they want” to Allies that, in his eyes, did not spend enough on defense.
There are positives for NATO. At its summer 2025 summit, members are expected to agree to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035.
Key Highlights
- Studies of emerging technological trends and their broader impact on the defense market.
- Analysis of the various NATO solutions, programs and projects currently under development
- The key defense challenges that forces and defense sector suppliers face are covered.
- The investment opportunities for armed forces, suppliers, and institutional investors, across the whole NATO value chain are covered.
- Highlights from the range different NATO Allies and their progress toward NATO spending goals
- Determine potential investment companies based on trend analysis and market projections.
- Gaining an understanding of the market challenges and opportunities surrounding the NATO in defense theme.
- Understanding how spending on NATO and related segments will fit into the overall market and which spending areas are being prioritized.
Table of Contents
57 Pages
- Executive Summary
- Players
- Thematic Briefing
- What is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and why does it exist?
- What have NATO Allies agreed to?
- When has Article 5 been invoked?
- What has NATO accomplished in recent years?
- NATO today
- What might NATO accomplish in the coming years?
- Tasks and organizational structure
- NATO and the defense industry
- Four Challenges for NATO
- Defense spending
- Defense industrial supply chain issues
- A disjointed approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine
- The United States’ wavering commitment
- Trends
- Technology trends
- Macroeconomic trends
- Regulatory & organizational trends
- Industry Analysis
- Market size and growth forecasts
- NATO at-large
- NATO’s growth rate (%), 2015–25
- NATO Europe & Canada
- NATO 2035: 5.0% of GDP?
- Use cases
- The Baltic states
- Italy
- Germany
- Poland
- Scandinavia
- Ukraine
- Timeline
- Value Chain
- Companies
- Public companies
- Private companies
- Sector Scorecards
- Aerospace, defense & security sector scorecard
- Who’s who
- Thematic screen
- Valuation screen
- Risk screen
- Glossary
- Further Reading
- GlobalData reports
- Our Thematic Research Methodology
- About GlobalData
- Contact Us
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Technology trends
- Table 2: Macroeconomic trends
- Table 3: Regulatory & organizational trends
- Table 4: Public companies
- Table 5: Private companies
- Table 6: Glossary
- Table 7: GlobalData reports
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: NATO’s 32 Allies and the year they joined the Alliance
- Figure 2: NATO’s 32 Allies on the map
- Figure 3: Map of NATO’s European Allies
- Figure 4: NATO’s organizational structure
- Figure 5: The NSPO/NSPA organizational outlay
- Figure 6: 2024 defense spending as a % of real GDP (2015 prices)
- Figure 7: 2024 defense spending as a % of real GDP (2015 prices) and total spend ($B), top 20 spenders by value
- Figure 8: NATO’s regional defense spending as a percentage of the total budget, 2015–25
- Figure 9: The United States defense budget as a percentage of GDP, 2021–30
- Figure 10: NATO’s total defense budget ($B) and growth rate (%), 2015–25
- Figure 11: NATO’s defense budget ($B) by region, 2015–25
- Figure 12: Annual growth rates of NATO region defense budgets (%)
- Figure 13: NATO Europe and Canada spending ($B) and breakdown (%), 2025* forecast
- Figure 14: NATO spending ($B) and as a share of the total (%), 2035* forecast, (2015 prices)
- Figure 15: US defense spending ($B), 2025 estimate vs. 2035 estimate (2015 prices)
- Figure 16: NATO Europe & Canada spending by country ($B), 2035 estimate vs. 2025 estimate (2015 prices)
- Figure 17: NATO’s top six spenders by % of GDP (2024-2026)
- Figure 18: GlobalData Polling: “How much confidence do you have that Ukraine and Russia will agree to a long-term, US-led ceasefire within the next six months?
- Figure 19: The NATO story
- Figure 20: The defense supply chain’s tier system
- Figure 21: Who does what in the aerospace & defense space?
- Figure 22: Thematic screen
- Figure 23: Valuation screen
- Figure 24: Risk screen
- Figure 25: Our five-step approach for generating a sector scorecard
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