Demographics - Thematic Intelligence

Demographics - Thematic Intelligence


Demographic mega-trends of rapidly aging and shrinking populations are unfurling, most notably in Western Europe and East Asia. They are shaping rising geopolitical tensions, de-globalization, and a new world order of inward-looking nations and blocs. Meanwhile, war and climate change threaten mass migrations from Central America, Africa, and South Asia that could overwhelm boundaries, nation-states, and infrastructures.

The next decade will see a massive transfer of power and wealth from the departing boomers to young cohorts with very different habits and values.

Key Highlights

  • The 2022 UN World Population Prospects report predicts that Sub-Saharan Africa will become the world’s most populous region in the late 2060s. In fact, between 2022 and 2050, the region’s population is expected to almost double, exceeding two billion inhabitants by the late 2040s. This global reshuffle of the world’s population will reconfigure migration pathways and policies as aging economies struggle to replenish their workforces.
  • History’s biggest-ever transfer of wealth and power is underway as the so-called ‘boomers’ retire and die, and the younger cohorts take over with very different experiences, assumptions, habits, and values. Cerulli Associates predicts that up to $68 trillion in assets will be transferred to younger generations within the next 25 years.
  • A study from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), found that an annual average of 21.5 million people were displaced due to weather-related events between 2008 and 2022. As the impacts of climate change become increasingly extreme, this number will grow significantly.
  • Aging populations and the increased buying power of millennials and Generation Z will see changes to product preferences across all consumer sub-sectors. As a result, companies’ strengths across ESG, ecommerce, cybersecurity, online delivery, and robotics will shape their exposure to the demographic shift.
  • This report provides an overview of the demographics theme.
  • It outlines the current distribution of the world’s population and projections for future population growth.
  • It identifies the key trends impacting growth of the theme over the next 12 to 24 months, classified into three categories: technology trends, macroeconomic trends, and regulatory trends.
  • It includes GlobalData’s Demographic framework, which maps out the different components driving demographic shift.
  • It includes generational profiles for the six living generations, which includes key characteristics.
  • The report also contains country demographic profiles with population forecasts up to 2025 for 7 major economies.
  • It includes government policy implications, spanning immigration, public sector spending, welfare policy, and regulation.
  • The report outlines demographic impact across seven sectors, identifies companies that will be positively or negatively impacted for each sector.
  • The report includes a company filings analysis for mentions of aging populations.
Reasons to Buy
  • Demographics will be one of the most impactful themes over the next decades. Overall changes to population size and distribution, the rise in financial power of Gen Z, and the deepening problem of aging populations in developed economies will create winners and losers across all sectors. This report identifies how both countries and companies are bracing themselves for demographic shift, ranging from policy mechanism to future technologies.

Executive Summary
Demographic Briefing
The current state of the world’s population
The rate of world population growth is slowing
Climate change will become one of the biggest drivers of immigration
The great wealth transfer is underway
Technology trends
Macroeconomic trends
Regulatory trends
Demographics Framework
Generational profiles
Country demographic profiles
Developed economies, aging population
Developed economies, young population
Developing economies, young population
Developing economies, aging population
Government policy implications
Immigration policy
Public sector spending
Welfare policy
Sector implications
Financial services
Materials and resources
Tech, media, and telecoms
Company Filings Analysis
Further Reading
GlobalData reports
Our thematic research methodology
About GlobalData
Contact Us
List of Tables
Table 1: Technology trends
Table 2: Macroeconomic trends
Table 3: Regulatory trends
Table 4: Glossary
Table 5: GlobalData reports
List of Figures/B>
Figure 1:The impact of demographic shifts will be far-reaching and span numerous sectors
Figure 2:A country can be categorized by its population structure
Figure 3:Asia is currently the world’s biggest population source, but growth in this region is slowing
Figure 4:The rate of population growth peaked in 1962 but has since halved
Figure 5:Large parts of the world are currently experiencing a collapse in the fertility rate
Figure 6:The economic impact of two degrees of warming will be extremely uneven
Figure 7:Intergenerational wealth transfer is expected to re8ach $68 trillion over the next 25 years
Figure 8:Our demographics framework has four key components:
Figure 9:What are the key characteristics of the different demographic cohorts that are alive today?
Figure 10:There are four key types of country demographic profiles
Figure 11:Japan’s projected population pyramid in 2025
Figure 12:Germany’s projected population pyramid in 2025
Figure 13:Canada’s projected population pyramid in 2025
Figure 14:The US’s projected population pyramid in 2025
Figure 15:India’s projected population pyramid in 2025
Figure 16:Nigeria’s projected population pyramid in 2025
Figure 17:China’s projected population pyramid in 2025
Figure 18:Demographics have a significant impact on government policies
Figure 19:The demographic shift will have a profound impact across all sectors
Figure 20:GlobalData’s breakdown of the consumer sector
Figure 21:A large number of companies within the consumer sector are ill-prepared for the demographic shift
Figure 22:GlobalData’s breakdown of the energy sector
Figure 23:Population growth and 0intensifying investor activism will impact energy players
Figure 24:GlobalData’s breakdown of the financial services sector
Figure 25:Players that capitalize on Gen Z’s digital skills will gain at the expense of traditional providers
Figure 26:GlobalData’s breakdown of the healthcare sector
Figure 27:Robotics, remote patient monitoring, and personalized medicine will be key future industries
Figure 28:GlobalData’s breakdown of the industrials sector
Figure 29:Robotics and battery technology will decide winners and losers in the industrials sector
Figure 30:GlobalData’s breakdown of the materials and resources sector
Figure 31:Materials and resources companies will need to cater to the demand and rising ESG expectations
Figure 32:GlobalData’s breakdown of the technology, media, and telecoms sector
Figure 33:Generation Z’s relationship with technology will create new winners and losers in the TMT sector
Figure 34:Mentions of aging populations increased between 2018 and 2020 but have since reduced
Figure 35: Our five-step approach for generating a sector scorecard

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