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The Global M2M/IoT Communications Market – 4th Edition

The Global M2M/IoT Communications Market analyses thelatest trends and developments in cellular IoT and low powerwireless networking.

This strategic research report from Berg Insight provides youwith 180 pages of unique business intelligence including 5-yearindustry forecasts and expert commentary on which to baseyour business decisions.

Highlights from the report:

360-degree overview of the cellular IoT communicationsecosystem.
Update on the adoption of NB-IoT and LPWA standards forM2M/IoT networking.
Reviews of the IoT strategies of leading mobile operators.
Summary of industry trends in all world regions.
IoT business KPIs for leading global mobile operators.
Statistical data on cellular IoT subscribers in all world regions.
Extensive global and regional market forecasts lasting until 2023.

This report answers the following questions:

How will the global cellular IoT market evolve over the next fiveyears?
Why has China become the world’s largest market for cellularIoT?
Which are the main market trends in Europe and NorthAmerica?
What is the status of cellular IoT in emerging markets?
What impact will 5G have on the IoT market?
What are the leading global mobile operators’ strategies for theIoT market?
How much revenues did leading telecom groups generate fromIoT in 2018?
What is the outlook for emerging low power wireless networkingtechnologies?


Executive summary

Berg Insight estimates that the global number of cellular IoT subscribers increased by 70percent during 2018 to reach 1.21 billion at the end of the year – corresponding to around 13percent of all mobile subscribers. Until 2023, the number of cellular IoT subscribers isforecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49.4 percent to reach 9.03billion at the end of the period. During the same period, cellular IoT network revenues areforecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.4 percent from € 6.7billion in 2018 to approximately € 29.4 billion in 2023. Meanwhile the monthly ARPU isexpected to drop to € 0.27.

East Asia was the largest region with 848.0 million IoT subscribers at the end of 2018, farahead of Western Europe and North America with 157.6 million and 111.7 millionrespectively. Altogether the main regions accounted for over 95 percent of the global installedbase. Latin America, South Asia, Southeast Asia and Russia & CIS had in the range of 19–32million cellular IoT subscribers each, while Africa, Middle East, Central Eastern Europe, andAustralia & Oceania were in the span 7–19 million.

China is the world’s largest market for cellular IoT connectivity services by volume. Accordingto operator subscriber data, the installed base grew by 124 percent year-on-year to reach 767million at the end of 2018. This corresponded to 63 percent of the global installed base. Thespectacular numbers reported by the domestic mobile operators leave no doubt that China isleading the global adoption of massive IoT. The country has surpassed Europe and NorthAmerica in terms of penetration rate – 54.7 IoT connections per 100 inhabitants at the end of2018 – and is on track to reach 1 billion IoT connections during 2019. The Chinesegovernment is actively driving adoption as a tool for achieving domestic and economic policygoals, at the same time as the private sector implements IoT technology to improve efficiencyand drive innovation. Berg Insight believes that the role of the government is the mainexplanation for why China is ahead of the rest of the world in the adoption of IoT. Like otheradvanced economies, the country has widespread adoption of connected cars, fleetmanagement, smart metering, asset monitoring and other traditional applications for cellularIoT. It has also given rise to new consumer services enabled by connectivity like bike sharing.The most distinctive characteristic of the Chinese IoT market is however the way that thegovernment is systematically using new technology to implement its vision for urban life in the21st century.

China Mobile is the world’s largest provider of cellular IoT connectivity. At the end of 2018, theoperator reported 551 million IoT connections and a year-on-year growth rate of 141 percent.China Unicom and China Telecom ranked second and third with 110 million and 106 millionconnections respectively. Vodafone ranked first among the Western operators and fourthoverall with 81 million connections, followed by AT&T in fifth place with 51 million. Verizon,Deutsche Telekom and Telefónica had in the range 25–35 million cellular IoT connections.Softbank/Sprint and Telenor were the last players in the top ten with 21 million and 17 millionconnections respectively. Year-on-year growth rates for the mentioned operators were in thespan 20–35 percent, except for Softbank/Sprint that only grew 3 percent.

IoT connectivity revenues are growing at a considerably slower rate than the number ofconnections. Berg Insight’s analysis of the IoT business KPIs released by mobile operators indifferent parts of the world suggests that global IoT revenues increased by around 19 percentduring 2018, while the monthly APRU dropped by 30 percent. Excluding China, the trend wasless dramatic with revenues growing by 16 percent and ARPU declining 7 percent. Indeed,there is a negative correlation between growth in connections and monthly ARPU as the bulkof net additions are cost sensitive devices.

Verizon reported the highest IoT revenues of € 1.4 billion (US$ 1.6 billion) in 2018 and thehighest monthly ARPU of an estimated € 3.65. Around 60 percent of sales derived from theVerizon Connect fleet management and telematics business. China Mobile ranked secondwith yearly IoT sales of € 964 million but had the lowest monthly ARPU of just € 0.21.Vodafone and AT&T were not far behind. Annual IoT revenues for the Vodafone group in 2018were approximately € 830 million, with a monthly ARPU of € 0.82. AT&T does not report IoTrevenues but is believed to have generated approximately € 750–800 million.

Executive summary
1 Wide area networks for the Internet of Things
1.1 3GPP family of cellular technologies
1.1.1 3GPP Release 13 – Introducing LTE-M and NB-IoT
1.1.2 3GPP Release 14 – IoT enhancements and V2X
1.1.3 3GPP Release 15 and 16 – 5G Phase 1 and 2
1.1.4 Network footprint
1.2 LPWA and satellite technologies
1.2.1 LoRa
1.2.2 Sigfox
1.2.3 Satellite networks
1.3 IoT networking platforms
1.3.1 IoT connectivity management platforms
1.3.2 SIM solutions and embedded UICC
1.4 International coverage and alliances
1.4.1 Roaming and international coverage
1.4.2 Mobile operator alliances
2 Europe
2.1 Regional market trends
2.1.1 Western Europe
2.1.2 Central Eastern Europe
2.1.3 Russia & CIS
2.2 Mobile operators
2.2.1 Vodafone
2.2.2 Deutsche Telekom
2.2.3 Orange
2.2.4 Telefónica
2.2.5 Telenor
2.2.6 3 Group Europe
2.2.7 A1 Telekom Austria
2.2.8 Altice Europe
2.2.9 Bouygues Telecom
2.2.10 BT Group
2.2.11 JT Group
2.2.12 KPN
2.2.13 Megafon
2.2.14 MTS
2.2.15 POST Luxembourg
2.2.16 Proximus
2.2.17 Telecom Italia
2.2.18 Telia Company
2.2.19 Tele2
2.2.20 UtilityConnect
2.3 IoT managed service providers
2.3.1 1NCE
2.3.2 1oT
2.3.3 Arkessa
2.3.4 Arm ISG
2.3.5 BICS
2.3.6 Com4
2.3.7 Cubic Telecom
2.3.8 EMnify
2.3.9 Eseye
2.3.10 Freeeway
2.3.11 iBASIS
2.3.12 Matooma
2.3.13 Sierra Wireless
2.3.14 Thingstream
2.3.15 Transatel
2.3.16 Wireless Logic
2.4 LPWA networks
2.4.1 LoRa networks
2.4.2 Sigfox and network partners
3 The Americas
3.1 Regional market trends
3.1.1 United States and Canada
3.1.2 Brazil
3.1.3 Rest of Latin America
3.2 Mobile operators
3.2.1 AT&T
3.2.2 Verizon
3.2.3 T-Mobile USA
3.2.4 Sprint
3.2.5 Rogers Communications
3.2.6 América Móvil
3.2.7 Vivo and Telefónica Latin America
3.2.8 Other mobile operators in Latin America
3.3 IoT managed service providers
3.3.1 Aeris
3.3.2 KORE Wireless
3.3.3 Twilio
3.4 Satellite networks
3.4.1 Orbcomm
3.4.2 Inmarsat
3.4.3 Iridium
3.4.4 Globalstar
3.5 LPWA networks
3.5.1 LoRa networks
3.5.2 Sigfox and network partners
4 Asia-Pacific
4.1 Regional market trends
4.1.1 China
4.1.2 Japan and South Korea
4.1.3 Australia and New Zealand
4.1.4 India
4.1.5 Southeast Asia
4.2 Mobile operators
4.2.1 China Mobile
4.2.2 China Unicom
4.2.3 China Telecom
4.2.4 Softbank
4.2.5 NTT Docomo
4.2.6 KDDI
4.2.7 SK Telecom
4.2.8 KT
4.2.9 Telstra
4.2.10 Singtel
4.2.11 Vodafone Idea
4.3 IoT managed service providers
4.3.1 Plintron
4.3.2 Soracom
4.3.3 Tata Communications
4.3.4 Unlimit
4.4 LPWA networks
4.4.1 LoRa networks
4.4.2 Sigfox networks
5 Middle East & Africa
5.1 Regional market trends
5.1.1 Middle East
5.1.2 Africa
5.2 Mobile operators
5.2.1 Etisalat
5.2.2 MTN
5.2.3 Ooredoo
5.2.4 Turkcell
5.2.5 Vodacom
5.2.6 Zain
5.3 LPWA networks
6 Market forecasts and trends
6.1 Industry trends
6.1.1 Top ten mobile operators achieve 1 billion cellular IoT subscribers
6.1.2 IoT revenues continue to grow slower than connections
6.1.3 IoT managed service providers connect 40+ million cellular devices
6.1.4 International carriers enter the cellular IoT market
6.1.5 New entrants disrupt distribution channels
6.2 Geographic markets
6.2.1 Global market summary
6.2.2 Europe
6.2.3 North America
6.2.4 Latin America
6.2.5 Asia-Pacific
6.2.6 Middle East & Africa
6.3 Vertical markets
6.3.1 Connected cars on the rise
6.3.2 Telematics giants increasingly dominate the fleet management industry
6.3.3 Smarter grids and safer cities
6.3.4 Industry 4.0 gains momentum
6.3.5 Connected healthcare reaches the masses
6.4 Technology trends
6.4.1 Cellular technologies dominate wireless IoT
6.4.2 The 2G-era is coming to an end
6.4.3 China leads the adoption of NB-IoT
6.4.4 5G will have limited short-term impact on IoT
6.4.5 Cloud platforms are becoming the centre of gravity for IoT
Glossary
Index
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Comparison of LTE MTC enhancements in 3GPP Release 14
Figure 1.2: LTE-M network availability (Q4-2018)
Figure 1.3: NB-IoT network availability (Q4-2018)
Figure 1.4: Examples of network operators deploying LoRaWAN
Figure 1.5: Sigfox network operators by country
Figure 1.6: MSS operator data services and coverage
Figure 1.7: MNO IoT connectivity management platform, by vendor (Q4-2018)
Figure 1.8: Mobile operator M2M/IoT alliances (Q4-2018)
Figure 2.1: Europe cellular IoT connectivity market data (Q4-2018)
Figure 2.2: Western Europe cellular IoT connectivity market data (Q2-2018)
Figure 2.3: Germany cellular IoT connectivity market data (2016/2017)
Figure 2.4: Italy cellular IoT connectivity market data (2016–2018)
Figure 2.5: France cellular IoT connectivity market data (2014–2018)
Figure 2.6: UK cellular IoT connectivity market data (2013–2017)
Figure 2.7: Spain & Portugal cellular IoT connectivity market data (2014–2018)
Figure 2.8: Benelux cellular IoT market connectivity data (2014–2018)
Figure 2.9: Nordics cellular IoT market connectivity data (2014–2018)
Figure 2.10: Sweden cellular IoT data traffic and revenues (2014–2018)
Figure 2.11: Central Eastern Europe cellular IoT connectivity market data (Q2-2018)
Figure 2.12: Russia & CIS cellular IoT market connectivity data (2014–2018)
Figure 2.13: Vodafone Group IoT business KPIs (FY2016-FY2019)
Figure 2.14: Orange cellular IoT subscribers by country (2015–2018)
Figure 2.15: Telefónica IoT business KPIs (2015–2018)
Figure 2.16: Telefónica IoT subscribers by country (2015–2018)
Figure 2.17: Financial data for Telenor Connexion (2011–2017)
Figure 2.18: A1 Telekom Austria IoT subscribers by country (2016–2018)
Figure 2.19: KPN IoT business KPIs (2016–2018)
Figure 2.20: Telia Company IoT subscribers by country (2017–2018)
Figure 2.21: IoT managed service providers in Europe by installed base (2018)
Figure 2.22: Public LoRaWAN network operators in Europe (2018)
Figure 2.23: Sigfox network operators in Europe (2018)
Figure 3.1: The Americas cellular IoT connectivity market data (Q4-2018)
Figure 3.2: US cellular IoT connectivity market data (2014–2018)
Figure 3.3: Brazil cellular IoT market connectivity data (2016–2018)
Figure 3.4: Estimated number of IoT subscribers in Latin America ex. Brazil (2018)
Figure 3.5: Telefónica IoT subscribers in Latin America by country (2015–2018)
Figure 3.6: Satellite network operators by IoT subscriber base (Q4-2018)
Figure 3.7: LPWA network operators in the Americas (Q4-2018)
Figure 4.1: Asia-Pacific cellular IoT connectivity market data (Q4-2018)
Figure 4.2: China cellular IoT connectivity market data (2016–2018)
Figure 4.3: Japan cellular IoT connectivity market data (2014–2018)
Figure 4.4: Cellular IoT subscribers by application category (South Korea, Q4-2018)
Figure 4.5: China Mobile IoT business KPIs (2016–2018)
Figure 4.6: China Unicom IoT business KPIs (2016–2018)
Figure 4.7: China Telecom IoT business KPIs (2016–2018)
Figure 4.8: Telstra IoT business KPIs (2016–2018)
Figure 4.9: Public LoRaWAN network operators in Asia-Pacific (2018)
Figure 4.10: Sigfox network operators in Asia-Pacific (2018)
Figure 5.1: Middle East & Africa cellular IoT connectivity market data (Q2-2018)
Figure 5.2: Turkey cellular M2M market connectivity data (2014–2018)
Figure 5.3: Vodacom IoT business KPIs (FY2016–FY2018)
Figure 5.4: LPWA network operators in Middle East & Africa (2018)
Figure 6.1: Top 10 mobile operators by reported IoT connections (World Q4-2018)
Figure 6.2: Top 5 mobile operators by reported IoT revenues (World 2018)
Figure 6.3: IoT managed service providers, by installed base (2018)
Figure 6.4: Key regional markets for cellular IoT (Q4-2018)
Figure 6.5: Monthly ARPU data for cellular IoT by country (2018)
Figure 6.6: Cellular IoT subscriber forecast, by region (World 2017–2023)
Figure 6.7: Cellular IoT network revenue forecast, by region (World 2017–2023)
Figure 6.8: Cellular IoT communication market forecast (Europe 2017–2023)
Figure 6.9: Cellular IoT communication market forecast (North America 2017–2023)
Figure 6.10: Cellular IoT communication market forecast (Latin America 2017–2023)
Figure 6.11: Cellular IoT communication market forecast (Asia-Pacific 2017–2023)
Figure 6.12: Cellular IoT communication market forecast (MEA 2017–2023)
Figure 6.13: Cellular IoT communication market forecast, by vertical (2017–2023)
Figure 6.14: Top five cellular IoT connectivity providers for connected cars (Q4-2018)
Figure 6.15: Cellular IoT connections by technology (World 2017–2023)
Figure 6.16: Non-cellular IoT connections by technology (World 2017–2023)

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