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The Global M2M/IoT Communications Market – 3rd Edition

The Global M2M/IoT Communications Market analyses thelatest trends and developments in cellular IoT and low powerwireless networking.

This strategic research report from Berg Insight provides youwith 170 pages of unique business intelligence including 5-yearindustry forecasts and expert commentary on which to base yourbusiness decisions.

Highlights from this report:

360-degree overview of the cellular IoT communicationecosystem.
Update on the adoption of NB-IoT and LPWA standards forM2M/IoT networking.
Reviews of the IoT strategies of leading mobile operators.
Summary of industry trends in all world regions.
Statistical data on cellular IoT subscribers in all world regions.
Extensive global and regional market forecasts lasting until 2022.

This report answers the following questions:

How will the global cellular IoT market evolve over the next fiveyears?
How will Chinese government policies shape the global IoTmarket?0Which are the main market trends in Europe and NorthAmerica?
What is the status of cellular IoT in emerging markets?
What are the leading global mobile operators’ strategies for theIoT market?
How much revenues did leading telecom groups generate fromIoT in 2017?
When will NB-IoT replace GPRS in mass-market applications?
What is the outlook for emerging low power wireless networkingtechnologies?


Executive summary

Berg Insight estimates that the global number of cellular IoT subscribers increased by 56percent during 2017 to reach 647.5 million at the end of the year – corresponding to around 8percent of all mobile subscribers. Until 2022, the number of cellular IoT subscribers isforecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.1 percent to reach2,700.1 million at the end of the period. During the same period, cellular IoT networkrevenues are forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.3 percentfrom € 6.3 billion in 2017 to approximately € 21.2 billion in 2022. Meanwhile the monthlyARPU is expected to drop to € 0.65.

The global cellular IoT market is going through a massive change, driven by the Chinesegovernment’s policies for accelerating adoption. China has set the ambitious goal of reaching600 million NB-IoT connections in 2020, three years after the launch of the first commercialnetworks. Berg Insight believes that the target must be seen as realistic in light of the 150million net additions and almost 100 percent yearly growth rate in 2017, the year before lowcostNB-IoT devices were even available. China has embarked on one of the world’s largestdigital infrastructure projects that will result in billions of new connected devices in the comingfive years. The massive effort will be a catalyst for reducing the price of cellular IoT chipsetsand modules below US$ 2 and driving the global transition from 2G to 4G networks. China’schoice of NB-IoT as the country’s preferred LPWA technology will elevate the emergingstandard to global dominance. It will also change the structure of the global cellular IoTsubscriber base.

The next wave of cellular IoT adoption is focused on new vertical segments like smart citiesand infrastructure, smart industrial supply chains and connected consumer products. BergInsight believes the new wave will start in China, where government authorities andmanufacturing companies will be first in the world to deploy connected devices using NB-IoTtechnology on a massive scale. Berg Insight does not expect to see similar levels of adoptionin any other world region in the coming five years. Most new connected consumer productswill launch first in China and get exported if successful. Berg Insight finds it likely thatembedded cellular IoT connectivity will become a standard feature in mass-marketwhitegoods and similar high-volume consumer goods.

China Mobile is the world’s largest provider of cellular IoT connectivity. At the end of Q2-2017,the operator reported 150 million IoT subscribers and a year-on-year growth rate of 87percent. Vodafone ranked second with 59 million IoT subscribers and a yearly growth rate of43 percent. China Unicom captured the third spot with 50 million, surpassing AT&T at close to36 million. China Telecom grew at an exceptional 250 percent year-on-year to reach 28million cellular IoT subscribers in the period. Deutsche Telecom, Softbank/Sprint, Verizon andTelefónica currently have in the range of 15–20 million cellular IoT subscribers, which aregrowing at yearly rates of 15–30 percent. Telenor was the last player in the top ten withapproximately 12 million cellular IoT subscribers. With an aggregate base of 407 millionconnections in mid-2017, the top ten mobile operators had a combined global market shareof 76 percent. IoT is starting to make a substantial contribution to the revenues of the world’smobile operators. Top international players such as AT&T, Verizon and Vodafone generate inthe order of € 1 billion in sales from IoT. Overall, the share of mobile operator revenues fromIoT is in the range of 1 percent. This is consistent with IoT’s share of total mobile data trafficreported by telecom regulators in Scandinavia.

Cellular IoT communication providers are at the forefront of adopting next generation networktechnology. Global IoT connectivity platforms aggregate cellular and non-cellular networks inevery part of the world on a shared core network infrastructure. Some players have evendeveloped complete mobile core networks based on virtualized network infrastructure andoperated as a service on commercial clouds. From a technical perspective, networkaggregation has intrinsic advantages in terms of coverage and flexibility. Any provider ofinternational IoT connectivity must rely on external radio networks. Being tied to a single radionetwork in the domestic market can sometimes be a disadvantage. The main competitiveadvantages of traditional telecom operators in IoT are not technical but commercial. In theend, any technical platform will only be as good as the underlying commercial relationshipsbetween the connectivity provider and the radio network operators.

Executive summary
1 Wide area networks for the Internet of Things
1.1 3GPP family of cellular technologies
1.1.1 3GPP Release 13 – Introducing LTE-M and NB-IoT
1.1.2 3GPP Release 14 – IoT enhancements and V2X
1.1.3 3GPP Release 15 – The first 5G specifications
1.1.4 Network footprint
1.2 LPWA and satellite technologies
1.2.1 LoRa
1.2.2 Sigfox
1.2.3 Satellite networks
1.3 IoT networking platforms
1.3.1 IoT connectivity management platforms
1.3.2 SIM solutions and embedded UICC
1.4 International coverage and alliances
1.4.1 Roaming and international coverage
1.4.2 Mobile operator alliances
2 Europe
2.1 Regional market trends
2.1.1 Western Europe
2.1.2 Regional market trends in Western Europe
2.1.3 Central Eastern Europe
2.1.4 Russia & CIS
2.2 Mobile operators
2.2.1 Vodafone
2.2.2 Deutsche Telekom
2.2.3 Telefónica
2.2.4 Orange
2.2.5 Telenor
2.2.6 3 Group Europe
2.2.7 A1 Telekom Austria
2.2.8 Bouygues Telecom
2.2.9 BT Group
2.2.10 JT Group
2.2.11 KPN
2.2.12 Megafon
2.2.13 MTS
2.2.14 POST Luxembourg
2.2.15 Proximus
2.2.16 SFR
2.2.17 Telecom Italia
2.2.18 Telia Company
2.2.19 Tele2
2.2.20 UtilityConnect
2.3 IoT managed service providers
2.3.1 Arkessa
2.3.2 Com4
2.3.3 Cubic Telecom
2.3.4 EMnify
2.3.5 Eseye
2.3.6 Sierra Wireless
2.3.7 Stream Technologies
2.3.8 Telit
2.3.9 Wireless Logic
2.3.10 Others
2.4 LPWA networks
2.4.1 LoRa networks
2.4.2 Sigfox and network partners
3 The Americas
3.1 Regional market trends
3.1.1 United States and Canada
3.1.2 Brazil
3.1.3 Rest of Latin America
3.2 Mobile operators
3.2.1 AT&T
3.2.2 Verizon
3.2.3 Sprint
3.2.4 T-Mobile USA
3.2.5 Rogers Communications
3.2.6 Bell Canada
3.2.7 América Móvil
3.2.8 Vivo and Telefónica Latin America
3.2.9 Other mobile operators in Latin America
3.3 IoT managed service providers
3.3.1 Aeris Communications
3.3.2 KORE Wireless
3.3.3 Numerex
3.4 Satellite networks
3.4.1 Orbcomm
3.4.2 Inmarsat
3.4.3 Iridium
3.4.4 Globalstar
3.5 LPWA networks
3.5.1 LoRa networks
3.5.2 Sigfox and network partners
4 Asia-Pacific
4.1 Regional market trends
4.1.1 China
4.1.2 Japan and South Korea
4.1.3 Australia and New Zealand
4.1.4 Southeast Asia
4.1.5 India and South Asia
4.2 Mobile operators
4.2.1 China Mobile
4.2.2 China Unicom
4.2.3 China Telecom
4.2.4 Softbank
4.2.5 NTT Docomo
4.2.6 KDDI
4.2.7 SK Telecom
4.2.8 KT
4.2.9 Singtel
4.2.10 Telstra
4.3 IoT managed service providers
4.3.1 Soracom
4.3.2 Unlimit
4.4 LPWA networks
5 Middle East & Africa
5.1 Regional market trends
5.1.1 Middle East
5.1.2 Africa
5.2 Mobile operators
5.2.1 Etisalat
5.2.2 FastNet
5.2.3 Ooredoo
5.2.4 MTN
5.2.5 Turkcell
5.2.6 Vodacom
5.2.7 Zain
5.3 LPWA networks
6 Market forecasts and trends
6.1 Geographic markets
6.1.1 Global market summary
6.1.2 Europe
6.1.3 North America
6.1.4 Latin America
6.1.5 Asia-Pacific
6.1.6 Middle East & Africa
6.2 Vertical markets
6.2.1 Connected cars reach an inflection point
6.2.2 Steady growth in the fleet management industry
6.2.3 Governments and utilities leverage IoT to address critical challenges
6.2.4 Industry 4.0 gains momentum
6.2.5 Redefining consumer experiences through connectivity
6.3 Technology trends
6.3.1 China’s economic planning will make 2G obsolete by 2020
6.3.2 Global sunset for 2G/3G networks ahead
6.3.3 Network virtualisation decouples cellular IoT from physical infrastructure
6.4 Industry trends
6.4.1 China Mobile first to reach 100 million cellular IoT subscribers
6.4.2 IoT accounts for less than 1 percent of mobile operator revenues
6.4.3 IoT managed service providers focus on high-end segments and platforms
Glossary
Index
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Comparison of LTE MTC enhancements in 3GPP Release 13
Figure 1.2: LTE-M network deployment plans (Q3-2017)
Figure 1.3: NB-IoT network availability by country (Q3-2017)
Figure 1.4: Examples of network operators deploying LoRaWAN
Figure 1.5: Sigfox network operators by country
Figure 1.6: MSS operator data services and coverage
Figure 1.7: MNO IoT connectivity management platform, by vendor (Q2-2017)
Figure 1.8: Mobile operator M2M/IoT alliances (Q2-2017)
Figure 2.1: Europe cellular IoT connectivity market data (Q2-2017)
Figure 2.2: Western Europe cellular IoT connectivity market data (Q4-2016)
Figure 2.3: Italy cellular IoT connectivity market data (2016–2017)
Figure 2.4: France cellular IoT connectivity market data (2013–2017)
Figure 2.5: Germany cellular IoT connectivity market data (2014–2017)
Figure 2.6: UK cellular IoT connectivity market data (2013–2016)
Figure 2.7: Spain & Portugal cellular IoT connectivity market data (2014–2017)
Figure 2.8: Benelux cellular M2M market connectivity data (2014–2017)
Figure 2.9: Nordics cellular M2M market connectivity data (2013–2016)
Figure 2.10: Central Eastern Europe cellular IoT connectivity market data (Q4-2016)
Figure 2.11: Russia & CIS cellular IoT market connectivity data (2013–2017)
Figure 2.12: Telefónica M2M subscribers by country (2016–2017)
Figure 2.13: Orange M2M subscribers by country (2015–2017)
Figure 2.14: Financial data for Telenor Connexion (2011–2017)
Figure 2.15: A1 Telekom Austria M2M subscribers by country (2016–2017)
Figure 2.16: LoRa network operators Europe (Q4-2016)
Figure 2.17: Sigfox network partners in Europe (Q2-2017)
Figure 3.1: The Americas cellular IoT connectivity market data (Q2-2017)
Figure 3.2: US cellular IoT connectivity market data (2013–2017)
Figure 3.3: Brazil cellular M2M market connectivity data (2014–2017)
Figure 3.4: Estimated number of M2M subscribers in Latin America ex. Brazil (H1-2017)
Figure 3.5: Telefónica M2M subscribers in Latin America by country (2014–2017)
Figure 3.6: Satellite network operators by IoT subscriber base (Q3-2017)
Figure 3.7: LPWA network operators in the Americas (November 2017)
Figure 4.1: Asia-Pacific cellular IoT connectivity market data (Q2-2017)
Figure 4.2: Japan cellular IoT connectivity market data (2013–2017)
Figure 4.3: Cellular IoT subscribers by application category (South Korea, August 2017)
Figure 4.4: Planned LPWA network rollouts in Asia-Pacific (November 2017)
Figure 5.1: Middle East & Africa cellular IoT connectivity market data (Q2-2017)
Figure 5.2: Turkey cellular M2M market connectivity data (2014–2017)
Figure 5.3: Planned LPWA network rollouts in Middle East & Africa (November 2017)
Figure 6.1: Key regional markets for cellular IoT (Q2-2017)
Figure 6.2: Monthly ARPU data for cellular IoT by country (2016)
Figure 6.3: Cellular IoT subscriber forecast, by region (World 2016–2022)
Figure 6.4: Cellular IoT network revenue forecast, by region (World 2016–2022)
Figure 6.5: Cellular IoT communication market forecast (Europe 2016–2022)
Figure 6.6: Cellular IoT communication market forecast (North America 2016–2022)
Figure 6.7: Cellular IoT communication market forecast (Latin America 2016–2022)
Figure 6.8: Cellular IoT communication market forecast (Asia-Pacific 2016–2022)
Figure 6.9: Cellular IoT communication market forecast (MEA 2016–2022)
Figure 6.10: Cellular IoT communication market forecast, by vertical (2016–2022)
Figure 6.11: OEM telematics attach rates in new vehicles, by region (2016/2021)
Figure 6.12: Top 25 international providers of fleet management solutions (Q4-2016)
Figure 6.13: Projected smart meter penetration in key markets (2023)
Figure 6.14: NB-IoT device shipments and installed base forecast (China 2017–2020)
Figure 6.15: Top 10 mobile operators by cellular IoT subscriber base (World Q2-2017)
Figure 6.16: Annualised IoT revenues for mobile operator groups (2016/2017)
Figure 6.17: Major IoT managed service providers by subscriber base (H2-2017)

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