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Cellular and LPWA IoT Device Ecosystems – 2nd Edition

Cellular and LPWA IoT Device Ecosystems – 2nd Edition

Cellular and LPWA IoT Device Ecosystems gives acomprehensive overview of the main wide area networkingtechnologies for the Internet of Things – 2G/3G/4G/5Gcellular, LoRa, Sigfox and 802.15.4 WAN.

This strategic research report from Berg Insight providesyou with 120 pages of unique business intelligence including5-year industry forecasts and expert commentary on whichto base your business decisions.

Highlights from the report:

360-degree overview of the main IoT wide area networkingecosystems.
Comparison of technologies and standards.
Updated profiles of the main suppliers of IoT chipsets andmodules.
Cellular IoT module market data for 2017.
Early adoption trends for emerging LPWA technologies.
Cellular and non-cellular LPWA IoT device market forecastuntil 2023.

This report answers the following questions:

How will the IoT wide area networking technology marketevolve over the next five years?
Who are the new challengers in the cellular IoT module market?
Which new mass-volume segments can be addressed by lowcostLPWA technologies?
Why are the new standards LTE-M and NB-IoT so significantfor the cellular IoT ecosystem?
How are Chinese national policies driving the migration from2G to 4G?
When will 5G appear in the cellular IoT market?
What is the current installed base of LoRa and Sigfox?
What are the prospects for emerging LPWA technologystandards?


Executive summary

The Internet of Things is weaving a new worldwide web of interconnected objects. By the endof 2018, approximately one billion devices will be connected to wide area networks based oncellular or LPWA technologies. The market is highly diverse and divided into multipleecosystems. This report will focus on the four most prominent technology ecosystems for widearea IoT networking – the 3GPP ecosystem of cellular technologies, the emerging LPWAtechnologies LoRa and Sigfox and the 802.15.4 ecosystem.

The 3GPP family of cellular technologies support the biggest ecosystem in wide area IoTnetworking. Berg Insight estimates that the global number of cellular IoT subscribers increasedby 56 percent during 2017 to reach 647.5 million at the end of the year – corresponding toaround 8 percent of all mobile subscribers. Yearly shipments of cellular IoT devices increasedby 82.2 percent in to 318.1 million units. Growth was fuelled by an exceptional marketexpansion in China, where the installed base of cellular IoT connections more than doubled.

The cellular IoT technology landscape is in a phase of rapid transformation. Developments inChina accelerate a global shift from 2G/3G to 4G technologies. As the initial focus for 5G willbe high-bandwidth applications, Berg Insight believes that 4G will become the preferredplatform for industrial IoT in the foreseeable future. The move from 2G to 4G began in NorthAmerica with 3G as an intermediate technology. The region has seen rapid uptake of LTE CAT-1 since 2017 and CAT-M starting in 2018 at the same time as GPRS and CDMA are fadingaway. Europe will begin to see adoption of LTE CAT-1 in 2018, followed by an accelerateduptake of LTE-M and NB-IoT in 2019. China is moving fast from GPRS to NB-IoT in the massmarketsegment with deployments expected to exceed 100 million units by the end of 2018. Atthe same time there will also be fast-growing demand for LTE CAT-1 and LTE-M, as well as LTECAT-3+. 2G and 3G will be in steady decline in all developed markets with demand shifting todeveloping countries with limited availability of 4G networks. Berg Insight expects that 5G willbecome commercially available for IoT applications such as automotive in 2020.

LoRa is gaining momentum as a global connectivity platform for IoT devices. According toSemtech, the global installed base of LoRa devices was approximately 50 million at thebeginning of 2018. The first major volume application segments are smart gas and watermetering, where LoRa’s low power consumption matches the requirements for long-life batteryoperation. LoRa is also gaining traction for metropolitan area and local area IoT deploymentsas a platform for networking smart sensors in cities, buildings, manufacturing plants andsimilar. Semtech has stated that it generated in the range of US$ 42 million in revenues fromLoRa chipsets in 2017 and expects to reach US$ 80–100 million in 2018. Berg Insight estimatesthat yearly shipments of LoRa devices were 17.1 million units in 2017. Until 2023, yearlyshipments are forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.6 percentto reach 89.1 million units.

Sigfox has very ambitious plans for establishing the technology bearing the company’s nameas the leading global platform for ultra-narrow band IoT networks. In order to meet its strategicgoals, Sigfox must be able to break into entirely new mass-volume device segments and proveits capability to create value by adding connectivity to things that never communicated before.

At the end of 2017, Sigfox reported 2.5 million connected devices and issued a forecast toreach 6.0 million in 2018. In a positive scenario where early trials ramp up to large-scalecommercial deployments, Berg Insight forecasts that shipments of Sigfox devices will grow ata compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 94.3 percent from 1.2 million units in 2017 to 64.6million units by 2023.

802.15.4 WAN is an established connectivity platform for private wide area wireless meshnetworks used for applications such as smart metering. Faced with increasing competition fromemerging LPWA standards, 802.15.4 WAN is however only expected to grow at moderate ratein the coming years. Berg Insight forecasts that shipments of 802.15.4 WAN devices will growat a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.2 percent from 16.2 million units in 2017 to46.6 million units by 2023. Smart metering is expected to account for the bulk of demand. Wi-SUN is the leading industry standard for smart electricity metering networks in North America,with adoption also spreading to Asia-Pacific and Europe.

Executive summary
1 Wide area networks for the Internet of Things
1.1 Which things will be connected to wide area networks?
1.1.1 Utility meters
1.1.2 Motor vehicles
1.1.3 Buildings
1.1.4 Low value assets – Industry 4.0 and consumer products
1.1.5 Future opportunities in smart cities and agriculture
1.2 What are the technology options?
1.2.1 Network architectures
1.2.2 Unlicensed and licensed frequency bands
1.3 Which are the leading technology ecosystems?
2 3GPP ecosystem
2.1 Technology characteristics
2.1.1 3GPP Release 13 – Introducing LTE-M and NB-IoT
2.1.2 3GPP Release 14 – IoT enhancements and V2X
2.1.3 3GPP Releases 15 and 16 – 5G phase 1 and 2
2.1.4 Network footprint
2.1.5 2G mobile networks
2.1.6 3G/4G mobile networks
2.1.7 4G-MTC mobile networks (eMTC/LTE-M and NB-IoT)
2.1.8 5G networks
2.2 Chipset vendors
2.2.1 Qualcomm
2.2.2 Mediatek
2.2.3 Unigroup Spreadtrum & RDA
2.2.4 Intel
2.2.5 HiSilicon
2.2.6 Sanechips Technology
2.2.7 Altair Semiconductors
2.2.8 Sequans Communications
2.2.9 Nordic Semiconductor
2.3 Module vendors
2.3.1 Sierra Wireless
2.3.2 Gemalto M2M
2.3.3 Telit
2.3.4 Quectel
2.3.5 Sunsea Telecommunications (SIMCom/Longsung)
2.3.6 u-blox
2.3.7 Huawei
2.3.8 ZTE WeLink (Gosuncn)
2.3.9 Neoway
2.3.10 Fibcocom
2.3.11 Other cellular module vendors
3 LoRa ecosystem
3.1 Technology characteristics
3.2 Network footprint
3.2.1 Europe
3.2.2 Asia-Pacific
3.2.3 The Americas and Middle East & Africa
3.3 Chipset and module vendors
3.3.1 Semtech
3.3.2 LoRa module vendors
4 Sigfox ecosystem
4.1 Technology characteristics
4.2 Network footprint
4.2.1 Europe
4.2.2 The Americas
4.2.3 Asia-Pacific
4.2.4 Middle East & Africa
4.3 Chipset and module vendors
4.3.1 Chipset vendors
4.3.2 Sigfox module vendors
5 802.15.4 WAN ecosystem
5.1 Technology characteristics
5.1.1 IPv6 connectivity stacks based on 802.15.4
5.1.2 Wi-SUN
5.1.3 ZigBee
5.2 Network footprint
5.3 Chipsets and modules
6 Vertical market segments
6.1 Motor vehicles
6.1.1 OEM connected car applications
6.1.2 Aftermarket connected car applications
6.2 Energy & Infrastructure
6.2.1 Smart electricity metering
6.2.2 Smart gas and water metering
6.2.3 Smart cities
6.3 Industry & Transport
6.4 Other
6.4.1 Buildings & security
6.4.2 Consumer products
6.4.3 Payments
7 Market forecasts and trends
7.1 Market summary
7.2 3GPP family
7.2.1 Cellular IoT device market forecast
7.2.2 Europe
7.2.3 Americas
7.2.4 Asia-Pacific
7.2.5 Middle East & Africa
7.3 LoRa
7.4 Sigfox
7.5 802.15.4 WAN
Glossary
Index
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Top wide area IoT target segments (2018)
Figure 1.2: Building stock by category (EU/US 2015)
Figure 1.3: Unlicensed and reserved radio frequencies available for wireless IoT
Figure 2.1: Comparison of LTE MTC enhancements in 3GPP Release 13
Figure 2.2: 3GPP cellular network connections by generation (World Q3-2017)
Figure 2.3: LTE-M network deployment plans (Q1-2018)
Figure 2.4: NB-IoT network availability by country (Q1-2018)
Figure 2.5: Top cellular module vendors, by revenues and shipments (World 2017)
Figure 2.6: Sierra Wireless embedded modules and terminals (Q1-2018)
Figure 2.7: Gemalto M2M embedded modules (Q1-2018)
Figure 2.8: Telit M2M embedded wireless modules (Q1-2018)
Figure 2.9: Quectel embedded wireless modules (Q1-2018)
Figure 2.10: SIMCom and Longsung embedded wireless modules (Q1-2018)
Figure 2.11: u-blox embedded wireless modules (Q1-2018)
Figure 2.12: Huawei embedded wireless modules (Q1-2018)
Figure 2.13: ZTE WeLink embedded wireless modules (Q1-2018)
Figure 2.14: Neoway embedded wireless modules (Q1-2018)
Figure 2.15: Fibocom embedded wireless modules (Q1-2018)
Figure 3.1: LoRa wide area network architecture
Figure 3.2: LoRa network operators in Europe (Q4-2017)
Figure 3.3: LoRa network operators in Asia-Pacific (Q4-2017)
Figure 3.4: List of certified LoRa modules by vendor (Q1-2018)
Figure 4.1: Sigfox network architecture
Figure 4.2: Sigfox network partners in Europe (Q1-2018)
Figure 4.3: Sigfox networks in the Americas (Q1-2018)
Figure 4.4: Sigfox networks in Asia-Pacific and MEA (Q1-2018)
Figure 4.5: List of Sigfox module vendors by supported regions (Q1-2018)
Figure 5.1: Major 802.15.4 networking platforms for smart metering (2017)
Figure 6.1: OEM telematics attach rates in new vehicles, by region (2016/2021)
Figure 6.2: Projected smart meter penetration in key markets (2023)
Figure 7.1: Cellular/LPWA IoT device shipment forecast, by region (World 2017–2023)
Figure 7.2: Cellular/LPWA IoT device shipment forecast, by technology (2017–2023)
Figure 7.3: Cellular IoT device shipment forecast (World 2017–2023)
Figure 7.4: Cellular IoT device shipments, by network technology (World 2017–2023)
Figure 7.5: Cellular IoT device shipment forecast (Europe 2017–2023)
Figure 7.6: Cellular IoT device shipment forecast (Americas 2017–2023)
Figure 7.7: Cellular IoT device shipment forecast (Asia-Pacific 2017–2023)
Figure 7.8: Cellular IoT device shipment forecast (Middle East & Africa 2017–2023)
Figure 7.9: LoRa device shipments forecast (World 2017–2023)
Figure 7.10: Sigfox device shipments forecast (World 2017–2023)
Figure 7.11: 802.15.4 WAN device shipments forecast (World 2017–2023)

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