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The Wireless network data traffic in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2015–2020

The Wireless network data traffic in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2015–2020


This report presents 5-year forecasts of wireless data traffic for developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP as a whole and for four selected countries: Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. It analyses the key trends in, and drivers and inhibitors of, data traffic.


Executive summary

Worldwide trends

Worldwide: 4G and emerging economies are driving traffic growth, but mobile will remain a sub-10% share of data traffic

Worldwide: Traffic growth in advanced LTE markets looks linear – not exponential – and may even turn into s-curves

Worldwide: Investment in FTTx may slow the very rapid growth in emerging markets

Worldwide: The value of a gigabyte is falling by about 30% per year, but the gross margin on mobile data remains very high

Worldwide: There is now little correlation between traffic growth and revenue growth, especially in advanced markets

Worldwide: Within 2 years after launch, 4G smartphones generate at least 3 times more traffic than 3G

Worldwide: Wi-Fi is already the default at-home network, and could become the default public indoor network

Worldwide: The availability of licensed spectrum will become a less important factor in determining the volume of traffic

Regional trends

Developed Asia–Pacific: Pricing discipline and saturation has meant subdued growth in most regional markets

Developed Asia–Pacific: The pattern of growth in traffic will be linear, not exponential

 

Country-level trends

Hong Kong: Volume-based pricing and limited competition has impeded the growth of LTE data traffic

Japan: Maturity in LTE usage and the growth of HD content is driving traffic to Wi-Fi

South Korea: The case for 5G has to go beyond just data capacity and speed

Taiwan: Operators have increased 4G allowances, which has inflated data traffic on cellular networks

Forecast methodology and assumptions

Forecast methodology and assumptions

Definition of geographical regions [1]

Definition of geographical regions [2]

About the author and Analysys Mason

About the author

Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned

Research from Analysys Mason

Consulting from Analysys Mason


List of Figures

Figure 1: Summary of report coverage

Figure 2: Cellular data traffic, developed Asia–Pacific, by market, 2013–2020

Figure 3: 4G and higher device share of traffic, worldwide, emerging and developed economies, 2013 – 2020

Figure 4: Cellular data traffic, by region, 2013–2020

Figure 5: Mobile share of total worldwide Internet traffic, 2013–2015

Figure 6: Annual growth multiples, total mobile data traffic selected advanced LTE markets, 4Q 2011–2Q 2015

Figure 7: Average usage per data SIM, normalised to 4Q 2011, selected advanced LTE markets, 4Q 2011–2Q 2015

Figure 8: Cellular data traffic, worldwide, developed economies and emerging economies, 2013–2020, Analysys Mason 2014 and 2015 forecasts

Figure 9: Data revenue per used GB, handset-only, by region, 2012–2015

Figure 10: Typical range of network and wholesale costs, and revenue sold and consumed, Western Europe, 2015

Figure 11: Mobile data traffic growth, overall retail revenue growth and data revenue growth, worldwide, 2012–2015

Figure 12: Year-on-year retail mobile revenue growth, selected advanced LTE markets, 3Q 2013–2Q 2015

Figure 13: Ratio of average 4G and average 3G smartphone usage, worldwide and selected markets

Figure 14: US device penetration and average usage, 2010– 2014

Figure 15: Smartphone users who connected to Wi-Fi by category of hotspot and the average amount of their total Wi-Fi data usage attributable to that category, Android users (n = 1211)

Figure 16: Convergence of fibre access and mobile

Figure 17: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected developed Asia- Pacific markets, 2013–2016

Figure 18: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, developed emerging Asia-Pacific markets, 2014 and 2015

Figure 19: Cellular data traffic, developed Asia-Pacific, by market, 2013–2020

Figure 20: Cellular data traffic, by type, Hong Kong, 2015–2020

Figure 21: Cellular data traffic, by type, Japan, 2015–2020

Figure 22: Cellular data traffic, by type, South Korea, 2015–2020

Figure 23: Cellular data traffic, by type, Taiwan, 2015–2020

Figure 24: Regional breakdown used in this report

Figure 25: Regional breakdown used in this report

 

 

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