This is Analysys Mason's first comprehensive forecast of mobile operator capex spending and provides an invaluable companion to our wireline network capex forecasts, at a time when investment in fibre and wireless are increasingly co-dependent.
Note: This report is delivered as a zip file containing, PPTX, PDF and Excel files.
5G spending will help to drive a 23% rise in capex from 2018 to - 2025, but its pattern will be radically different from 3G and 4G
Five types of operator – each with a distinctive capex profile – will dominate regional mobile investment as the MNO model diversifies
Fragmentation of the operator models means new patterns of investment
5G will be deployed in phases over a decade, initially led by integrated operators, but increasingly introducing disruptors with new economics
Different operator types will have different investment strategies within these new capex norms; emerging markets will drive growth
Prior to the deployment of 5G radio, most operators are investing in foundations that will alter the economics of the new network
The need for a lower cost base for 5G will increase sharing and wholesaling, creating a split between utility and capex-light MNOs
New software-driven architectures, in tandem with increased sharing and outsourcing, will represent significant capex, reducing future costs
Developed market integrated: Integrated operators will use their fibre to transform the network cost base and move to a more wholesale-driven model
Developed market integrated: Early moves to 5G and new architectures will create a heavy capex burden in 2020, before efficiencies have an impact
DM mobile-centric: The heavy spending to assure a lead in 4G is slowing as operators pursue RoI and fibre partnerships
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