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The Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017–2022

The Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017–2022

Total telecoms retail revenue in emerging Asia–Pacific will grow at a CAGR of 2%, mainly driven by mobile handset data, fixed broadband and IPTV. This report examines key trends and drivers, and provides comprehensive telecoms market forecasts for emerging Asia–Pacific and for six individual countries.


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Executive summary

Telecoms retail revenue for EMAP will increase over the forecast period, but the CAGR will fall from 5.3% (2012–2016) to 2.0% (2016–2022)

Telecoms retail revenue growth in EMAP over the forecast period will mainly be driven by mobile handset data, fixed broadband and IPTV

Fixed and mobile telecoms retail revenue will see similar CAGRs of around 2% in EMAP over 2016–2022

Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets

Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators

Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison

Geographical coverage: 4G launches in Myanmar, Nepal and Vietnam in 2016 and 2017 will further increase the 4G share of connections in EMAP

Market context: Malaysia had the highest SIM population penetration and China the highest fixed broadband household penetration in 2016

Revenue and ARPU: An increase in subscriber numbers will compensate for a slight decline in ARPU, leading to stable growth in retail revenue

Mobile penetration: Active mobile SIM penetration in EMAP will grow from 85% in 2016 to 99% in 2022

Mobile connections: 4G will become the dominant technology over the forecast period, accounting for 64% of mobile connections in 2022

Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone penetration in EMAP will grow from 52% in 2016 to 81% in 2022 due to technology improvements

Mobile broadband: Technology migration and improvements will drive the rapid growth of mobile broadband connections

Mobile ARPU: Overall ARPU will continue to fall at a CAGR of -2.2% during the forecast period and stabilise around USD5 towards the end

Data and revenue by generation: Mobile network construction and will drive revenue growth and boost data traffic

Fixed upgrades services: There will be over 472 million fixed broadband connections in EMAP by 2022 and FTTP/B will account for 87% of these

Fixed broadband: Fixed broadband will grow strongly due to operator investments, government initiatives and service bundles

Key drivers at a glance for each emerging Asia–Pacific market

Key drivers at a glance table: methodology
Individual country forecasts

China: China will continue to lead technology improvements in EMAP

China – mobile: Fast 4G take-up and innovative products drive cellular data usage, and 5G is expected to launch around 2020

China – fixed: China Mobile’s entrance to the fixed market has stimulated subscriber growth, but affected fixed ASPU

Indonesia: Fixed broadband and mobile data services will be the main contributors to total service revenue growth

Indonesia – mobile: Intensified competition will lead to more innovative product offerings and result in 4G penetration growth

Indonesia – fixed: Broadband and IPTV revenue will grow due to increases in subscriber numbers and upgraded services

Malaysia: Total telecoms retail revenue will decline slowly due to market saturation in Malaysia

Malaysia – mobile: Intense competition limits data revenue growth – operators focus on postpaid offerings for higher margins

Malaysia – fixed: Operators focus on higher speed plans and more convergence bundles

Philippines: Total service revenue will grow at a CAGR of 1.3% during the forecast period due to data revenue growth

Philippines – mobile: Intensified competition will hamper operators’ profitability and revenue growth will be marginal

Philippines – fixed: Fixed broadband connections will grow strongly, due to operators’ efforts to expand coverage

Thailand: Rapid adoption of 4G and increasing FTTP penetration will be the main contributors to total service revenue growth

Thailand – mobile: Improved network speeds will drive growth in 4G mobile subscriber numbers and data revenue

Thailand – fixed: National initiatives will contribute to coverage expansion and increase broadband penetration

Vietnam: Technology improvements will drive growth in both mobile and fixed markets

Vietnam – mobile: The number of 4G subscribers will grow exponentially after the launch of the technology in 2017

Vietnam – fixed: Both fixed broadband connections and revenue will increase during 2017–2022, due to an extensive FTTP roll-out

About the authors and Analysys Mason

About the authors

Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned

Research from Analysys Mason

Consulting from Analysys Mason

 

 

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2016–2022

Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, emerging
Asia–Pacific, 2016–2022

Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for emerging
Asia–Pacific

Figure 5: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2022

Figure 6: Metrics for the 13 countries modelled individually in emerging
Asia–Pacific, 2016

Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2016–2022

Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, emerging Asia–Pacific,
2016–2022

Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G’s share of connections, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2016 and 2022

Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, emerging
Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 19: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2012) and future trajectory (2017–2022) by country, emerging Asia–Pacific

Figure 20: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), China, 2012–2022

Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, China, 2016–2022

Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, China, 2016–2022

Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, China,
2012–2022

Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, China, 2012–2022

Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, China

Figure 27: Fixed penetration rates by service type, China, 2012–2022

Figure 28: Fixed ASPU by service type, China, 2012–2022

Figure 29: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, China

Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Indonesia, 2012–2022

Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Indonesia, 2016–2022

Figure 32: Connections by type, and growth rates, Indonesia, 2016–2022

Figure 33: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Indonesia,
2012–2022

Figure 34: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Indonesia, 2012–2022

Figure 35: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Indonesia

Figure 36: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Indonesia, 2012–2022

Figure 37: Fixed ASPU by service type, Indonesia, 2012–2022

Figure 38: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Indonesia

Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Malaysia, 2012–2022

Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Malaysia, 2016–2022

Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Malaysia, 2016–2022

Figure 42: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Malaysia,
2012–2022

Figure 43: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Malaysia, 2012–2022

Figure 44: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Malaysia

Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Malaysia, 2012–2022

Figure 46: Fixed ASPU by service type, Malaysia, 2012–2022

Figure 47: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Malaysia

Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Philippines, 2012–2022

Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Philippines, 2016–2022

Figure 50: Connections by type, and growth rates, Philippines, 2016–2022

Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Philippines, 2012–2022

Figure 52: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Philippines, 2012–2022

Figure 53: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Philippines

Figure 54: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Philippines, 2012–2022

Figure 55: Fixed ASPU by service type, Philippines, 2012–2022

Figure 56: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Philippines

Figure 57: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Thailand, 2012–2022

Figure 58: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Thailand, 2016–2022

Figure 59: Connections by type, and growth rates, Thailand, 2016–2022

Figure 60: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Thailand,
2012–2022

Figure 61: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Thailand, 2012–2022

Figure 62: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Thailand

Figure 63: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Thailand, 2012–2022

Figure 64: Fixed ASPU by service type, Thailand, 2012–2022

Figure 65: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Thailand

Figure 66: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Vietnam, 2012–2022

Figure 67: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Vietnam, 2016–2022

Figure 68: Connections by type, and growth rates, Vietnam, 2016–2022

Figure 69: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Vietnam,
2012–2022

Figure 70: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Vietnam, 2012–2022

Figure 71: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Vietnam

Figure 72: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Vietnam, 2012–2022

Figure 73: Fixed ASPU by service type, Vietnam, 2012–2022

Figure 74: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Vietnam

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