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The Developed Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

The Developed Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

Technological developments, a good economic outlook and high GDP per capita in developed Asia–Pacific will result in revenue growth in almost all service segments apart from traditional voice services. In this report we examine key trends and drivers, and provide comprehensive telecoms market forecasts for the region and for seven individually modelled countries.

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Executive summary and recommendations
The total telecoms retail revenue in developed Asia–Pacific will grow steadily in all segments apart from traditional voice The overall retail revenue growth rate in the region will be low; Japan, New Zealand and South Korea will see the most growth Geographical coverage: by 2023, the 4G/5G and NGA share of connections will approach 100% in most DVAP countries Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets Key recommendations for telecoms operators
Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
Market context: operators in developed Asia–Pacific benefit from a relatively high GDP per capita, which drives retail spending on telecommunications services Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries Key drivers at a glance for each developed Asia–Pacific market Market overview: mobile data will drive revenue growth in DVAP; fixed broadband revenue will not offset declining fixed voice revenue Mobile: 99.5% of mobile connections in DVAP will use 4G or 5G in 2023 Mobile: the demand for data services will help to reduce ARPU declines Mobile: 5G roll-out plans are gathering pace while operators are aiming to capitalise on opportunities in the IoT segment Fixed: the vast majority of households in DVAP will use NGA broadband connections by 2023 Fixed: increasing competition in New Zealand will result in a rapid increase in fixed broadband household penetration and will contribute to ASPU declines
Fixed: the fixed market in DVAP is very competitive and operators will focus on consumer experience and churn reduction Business services: growth in the business service segment in DVAP will slow down IoT: the automotive and smart building segments will generate a significant share of IoT revenue by 2023 Pay TV: traditional pay-TV revenue growth will be slow as markets are saturated and OTT competition is growing quickly
Individual country forecasts
Australia: fixed broadband revenue growth will be faster than the revenue growth in the mobile handset segment Australia: the number of high-speed broadband connections is increasing quickly as the roll-out of NBN gathers pace Australia: competition in both fixed and mobile market segments will intensify, resulting in a slight decline in total telecoms revenue by 2023 Australia: forecast changes Hong Kong: IoT will account for the overwhelming majority of new connections, but its impact on revenue will remain negligible Hong Kong: FTTP/B will continue to be the key broadband access technology Hong Kong: competition in the fixed broadband segment has declined and the mobile segment is now following suit Hong Kong: forecast changes Japan: the number of mobile IoT connections will grow rapidly, while handset penetration will remain relatively stable Japan: the number of FBB connections will increase due to continued fibre take-up; FBB revenue will grow at a CAGR of 2% up to 2023
Japan: operators are placing a focus on churn reduction strategies across the fixed and mobile sectors Japan: forecast changes New Zealand: fixed services revenue will remain almost flat due to strong competition in the fixed broadband market New Zealand: MNOs are focused on migrating subscribers from prepaid to contract plans New Zealand: unlimited mobile data plans were launched in 2017 New Zealand: forecast changes Singapore: mobile service revenue will decline at a CAGR of 0.5% between 2018 and 2023 Singapore: the number of DSL and cable connections will drop to 0 by the end of 2019 Singapore: the mobile market is experiencing structural changes and a fourth MNO will enter the market in 2019 Singapore: forecast changes South Korea: telecoms revenue will increase modestly, largely thanks to growth in mobile data and fixed broadband revenue South Korea: South Korea will have the highest share of 5G mobile connections in the DVAP region in 2023 South Korea: MNOs plan to launch consumer 5G offers in 2019; 10Gbps broadband services were launched in 4Q 2018 South Korea: forecast changes Taiwan: service revenue in both fixed and mobile segments will decline mildly due to saturated markets and stiff competition Taiwan: rapid growth in mobile data usage and strong 5G take-up will not prevent the continued decline in mobile ARPU
Taiwan: the prevalence of unlimited mobile data packages will dampen revenue growth in both the fixed and mobile segments Taiwan: forecast changes
Methodology
Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge Examples of forecast input drivers Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1] Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned Research from Analysys Mason Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of figures:
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV1 retail revenue by type and total service revenue, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023 Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2017–2023 Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2017 and 20231 Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for developed Asia–Pacific Figure 5: Metrics for the seven countries modelled individually in developed Asia–Pacific, 2017 Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in developed Asia–Pacific Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018–2023), by country, developed Asia–Pacific Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, developed Asia–Pacific (USD billion), 2013–2023 Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023 Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023 Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023 Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023 Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, developed Asia–Pacific (USD per month), 2013–2023 Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023 Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, developed Asia–Pacific (MB per month), 2013–2023 Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023 Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023 Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023 Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, developed Asia–Pacific (USD billion), 2013–2023 Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023 Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, developed Asia–Pacific (GB per month), 2013–2023 Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023 Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023 Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023 Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023 Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay-TV, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023 Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Australia (AUD billion), 2013–2023 Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Australia (million), 2013–2023 Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Australia, 2013–2023 Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Australia (million), 2013–2023 Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Australia, 2013–2023 Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Australia (AUD per month), 2013–2023 Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Australia (MB per month), 2013–2023 Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Australia (million), 2013–2023 Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Australia, 2013–2023 Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Hong Kong (HKD billion), 2013–2023 Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Hong Kong (million), 2013–2023 Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Hong Kong, 2013–2023 Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Hong Kong (million), 2013–2023 Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Hong Kong, 2013–2023 Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Hong Kong (HKD per month), 2013–2023 Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Hong Kong (MB per month), 2013–2023 Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Hong Kong (million), 2013–2023 Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Hong Kong, 2013–2023 Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Japan (JPY trillion), 2013–2023 Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Japan (million), 2013–2023 Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Japan, 2013–2023 Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Japan (million), 2013–2023 Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Japan, 2013–2023 Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Japan (JPY per month), 2013–2023 Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Japan (MB per month), 2013–2023 Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Japan (million), 2013–2023 Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Japan, 2013–2023 Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, New Zealand (New ZealandD billion), 2013–2023 Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, New Zealand (million), 2013–2023 Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, New Zealand, 2013–2023 Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, New Zealand (million), 2013–2023 Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, New Zealand, 2013–2023 Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, New Zealand (New ZealandD per month), 2013–2023 Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, New Zealand (MB per month), 2013–2023 Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, New Zealand (million), 2013–2023 Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, New Zealand, 2013–2023 Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Singapore (SGD billion), 2013–2023 Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Singapore (million), 2013–2023 Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Singapore, 2013–2023 Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Singapore (million), 2013–2023 Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Singapore, 2013–2023 Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Singapore (SGD per month), 2013–2023 Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Singapore (MB per month), 2013–2023 Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Singapore (million), 2013–2023 Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Singapore, 2013–2023 Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, South Korea (KRW trillion), 2013–2023 Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, South Korea (million), 2013–2023 Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, South Korea, 2013–2023 Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, South Korea (million), 2013–2023 Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, South Korea, 2013–2023 Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, South Korea (KRW thousand per month), 2013–2023 Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, South Korea (MB per month), 2013–2023 Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, South Korea (million), 2013–2023 Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, South Korea, 2013–2023 Figure 81: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Taiwan (TWD billion), 2013–2023 Figure 82: Mobile connections by type, Taiwan (million), 2013–2023 Figure 83: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Taiwan, 2013–2023 Figure 84: Fixed connections by type, Taiwan (million), 2013–2023 Figure 85: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Taiwan, 2013–2023 Figure 86: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Taiwan (TWD per month), 2013–2023 Figure 87: Mobile data traffic per connection, Taiwan (MB per month), 2013–2023 Figure 88: Broadband connections by technology, Taiwan (million), 2013–2023 Figure 89: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Taiwan, 2013–2023 Figure 90: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores Figure 91: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

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