South Africa Tourism Report Q1 2013Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Dec. 26, 2012 - 74 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe South African Tourism Report looks at the recent performance of the tourism sector and considers itsprospects over the next five years. BMI believes the boost to the sector provided by the successfulhosting of the 2010 FIFA World Cup will continue to provide a fillip for foreign tourism, encouraginggrowth opportunities for arrivals outside more traditional source markets, such as India, China, Canadaand Brazil. Each of these segments recorded strong growth in the early part of 2012. Although annualgrowth in foreign tourist arrivals slowed to 3% in 2011, this was reasonable considering the high level ofthe base year, 2010.A pick-up in growth of foreign tourism is anticipated over the next few years, largely due to solideconomic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). On the downside, the tourism sector faces considerableheadwinds arising from expected weakness in the eurozone over the forecast period. Domestic tourismshould be bolstered by relatively strong economic growth in South Africa. Data for January-July 2012 show sound growth in foreign tourist arrivals of 10.5%, compared with thecorresponding period in 2011. Growth in visitor numbers from both Africa and Europe was equallyrobust, at close to 9% and 10% year-on-year (y-o-y) respectively. Of particular note, arrivals from NorthAmerica and Asia grew especially strongly, up 16% and 38% y-o-y respectively, with visitor numbersfrom China increasing a massive 66% (around 30,000 more tourists over the period in question). In the hospitality sector, latest figures record a reasonably strong outturn during the first eight months of2012, with the total number of foreign and domestic tourist room nights in all accommodationestablishments up by 9.5% y-o-y. Over the last quarter BMI have revised the following forecasts and views: BMI has raised the growth forecasts for foreign tourist arrivals over the extended period to 2017. Forecast economic growth in SSA - the main source region - is expected to remain relativelybuoyant over 2012 and 2013, but growth has been edged down to 5% and 5.6% y-o-yrespectively. BMI has lowered its eurozone real GDP growth forecast in 2012 to -0.7% (from -0.6%) and to0.6% in 2013 (from 0.7%). The y-o-y growth rate in arrivals from the eurozone in the first seven months of 2012 wassurprisingly strong, given the generally weak demand conditions in the region. Recent weaknessof the South African rand though probably stimulated inbound tourism. Get full details about this report >> |
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