Philippines Agribusiness Report Q1 2013Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Dec. 19, 2012 - 65 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractOne of the long-term ways in which the Philippine government aims to improve the standard of thecountry's agriculture sector is through education. In recent years, one of the main strategies to equipstudents with increased agricultural and agribusiness knowledge has been a Joint Venture between theDepartment of Agriculture and the Department of Education offering increased opportunities invocational schools, technical skills training and scholarships. We believe this is a step in the rightdirection towards remedying the core problem of poor agriculture technology and employmentdiscrepancies in the larger economy.Key Forecasts Rice production growth to 2016/17: 14.0% to 12.1mn tonnes. One of the latest attempts toincrease production has been the introduction of the early cropping scheme. This is estimated toincrease output by 10% within the first year of implementation. Pork production growth to 2016/17: 12.8% to 1.47mn tonnes. This growth will be driven byan increase in commercial farming, as well as rising domestic consumption. 2013 real GDP growth: 4.4% (down from 5.0% in 2012; predicted to average 4.5% over 2013-2017). 2013 wholesale price inflation: 5.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) (down from 5.6% y-o-y in2012; predicted to average 5.2% over 2013-2017). 2013 central bank policy rate: 3.5% (same as in 2012; predicted to average 3.8% over 2013-2017). Industry Developments Domestic corn prices have on the whole, risen over September and October 2012 due to higher farm gateprices and import prices. According to the Mindanao Grain Processing Co Inc, imported corn costPHP18/kg (tax not included) in October while local corn prices are about 25% higher by year-end thanthey were at the beginning of 2012. Since receiving compliance approval from South Korea that poultry from the Philippines conforms withinternational safety and regulatory standards, the Philippines has restarted exporting medium- and largesizedchickens into South Korea. This reinforces the US Department of Agriculture's forecast that exportswill rise by 29.4% y-o-y to 22,000 tonnes in 2013. We believe that the South East Asian country has thepotential to leverage this status as it is one of the few Asian countries free from both avian influenza virusand foot-mouth disease. According to industry sources, exports of sugar into the US will begin earlier than usual, in November2012 instead of January 2013. The authorities hope to ease the domestic supply glut of the sweetener byallowing shipments sooner. As of October 2012, there was a national surplus of 40,900 tonnes of grade'A' sugar (for the US quota) and 55,800 tonnes of grade 'D' sugar (for world markets) ready for export. At the time of writing, nine sugar mills are operating in full swing, up from three in 2011. Given thestrong production prospects for sugar in 2012/13, we continue to expect strong exports out of thePhilippines for the new season. Get full details about this report >> |
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