Mexico Tourism Report Q1 2013

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Dec. 19, 2012 - 74 Pages


Table of Contents

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Mexico Tourism SWOT
Mexico Political SWOT
Mexico Economic SWOT
Mexico Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals, 2010-2017
Accommodation
Table: Hotels Data, 2010-2017 ('000, unless stated)
Expenditure
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2010-2017
Inbound Tourism
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2010-2017
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2010-2017
Market Overview - Travel
Commercial Airlines
Low-Cost Airlines
Cruises
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts And Bloomberg Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
Accommodation
H1N1 Virus
Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Latin America Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
BMI's Regional Security Ratings
Table: Latin America Security Ratings
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings
Mexico's Security Risk Ratings
Latin America Security Overview
Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
Latin America In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Security
The Role Of Outside Powers
Key Factors To Consider In The 2010s
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2011-2017
Table: Global & Regional Real GDP Growth, % chg y-o-y
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2014
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2014
Developed States
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2014 (%)
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2014 (%)
Table: BMI v Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecast, 2012-2013 (%)
Company Profiles
Aeroméxico
Meliá Hotels International
Demographic Outlook
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Mexico's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Mexico's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings - Methodology
Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources

Abstract

The Mexico Tourism Report examines the enormous long-term potential of the market, given itsproximity to the US, but flags up short-term concerns about rising levels of insecurity and the negativeimage this is sending to potential tourists.

We examine how best to maximise returns in the Mexican tourism market, capitalising on the country'sconsiderable attractions and benefiting from its well established position in the region. The report alsoassesses the impact of the slow recovery in the US, which is feeding through to affect demand in Mexico.The report also analyses the key domestic and foreign players in the Mexican market and thedevelopment strategies they are employing to maximise returns during the economic slowdown.

Key Findings

Official figures released by the Ministry of Tourism (Sectur) in October 2012 showed that tourist arrivalsto Mexico continued to decline in the year to August. Total tourist arrivals totalled 15.5mn in the firsteight months of the year, representing a fall of 1.5% year-on-year (y-o-y). August itself saw a particularlysharp drop, with tourist arrivals falling 7.2% y-o-y to only 1.7mn. However, revenues have continued tohold up well, with January to August tourist revenues totalling US$7.2bn, growing by 6.3% y-o-y.

A key factor behind the decline has been lower arrivals from the US, partly because of economicconcerns north of the border and also because of fears of violence in the US-Mexico border areas.Tourism arrivals from the US dropped by 1% in the first half of the year. However, Mexico is makingstrong efforts to market itself to other destinations, which appears to be paying off. Between January andJune, tourist arrivals from Russia grew by 77%, those from Brazil by 66% and Venezuelan arrivals by38%. These should help to compensate for slowing arrivals from the US. Arrivals in general should pickup towards the end of the year as Mexico enters its traditional high season. BMI therefore expects arrivalsto post overall growth for 2012, despite the subdued figures in the first eight months.

Mexico's outgoing secretary of tourism Gloria Guevara released a report in October 2012 showing thatinvestment in the tourism industry grew by an impressive 53% between 2006 and 2012, her party's termin government. The report stated that investment rose to MXN20.2bn in 2012, from MXN12.8bn in 2006.The sector's five key targets continue to be: tourism growth within Mexico; international tourism growth;investment in tourism from the public sector; investment in tourism from the private sector, anddiversification away from a reliance on the US as the major source of tourism.

Key Changes

BMI analyses the implications of the drop in tourist arrivals in the first eight months of the yearand prospects for a recovery in the final quarter.

BMI assesses the growing competitiveness in the airline sector, with low-cost carrier Volarismaking a strong bid to increase its share of the domestic market, while rival Interjet concentrateson opening up routes into the US.

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