Netherlands Renewables Report Q1 2013

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Nov. 21, 2012 - 27 Pages


Table of Contents

BMI View
SWOT Analysis
Netherlands Renewables SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Netherlands Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017
Table: Netherlands Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2014 -2021
Table: Netherlands Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017
Table: Netherlands Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
Renewables Projects Database
Table: Renewables Key Projects
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure
Targets (Renewables and Emissions)
Subsidies
Table: Renewable Feed-In Tariffs In 2009
Infrastructure
Ratings
Netherlands Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Competitive Landscape
Royal Dutch Shell (Shell)
Nuon Energy
Essent
Delta NV
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology and Sources
Industry Forecasts
Renewables Industry - Data Methodology
Generation Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
Sources

Abstract

BMI View: Our short-term outlook for renewable energy in the Netherlands remains bearish, as a newgovernment has yet to be formed and no changes have been made to regulatoryframeworks. Alternatively, our long-term outlook remains clouded due to a high level of politicaluncertainty. At this juncture, we believe that a pro-Eurozone coalition will be formed, but are unsure ofthe stance that the government will take on renewables. That said, our long-term outlook is buttressed byexpectations of a mild economic recovery.

We are forecasting non-hydropower renewable generation in the Netherlands to grow by 3.7% in 2013,representing a marked slowdown from the 10-year average of 10.4%. We attribute this drastic slowdownto the unsupportive regulatory environments introduced by the previous government and ongoingausterity and budget-deficit concerns fielded by the current government.

Our long-term outlook is slightly more clouded, as the political environment in the country appearsextremely uncertain. Many of the regulations implemented by the previous government could beoverturned by the new administration. Additionally, we believe that the Dutch economy is set toexperience a mild recovery from 2013 onwards. These expectations lead us to forecast average nonhydropowergeneration growth of 5.8% per annum between 2013 and 2017.

Here are the key trends and regulatory changes in the industry:

The Dutch government cut renewable energy subsidies from EUR4bn to EUR1.5bn in 2011, butraised it to EUR1.7bn in 2012. Renewable energy targets were also reduced from 20% to 14% oftotal energy mix.

The country’s fiscal deficit is currently estimated to be approximately 4.5% of GDP. The newgovernment would have to cut spending substantially to achieve this target.

Biomass generation growth continues to disappoint, following the new government’sunsupportive stance on the energy.

Development of offshore wind potential has ground to a halt, following the removal of offshorewind energy from the existing FiT scheme. The only project currently being developed is the600MW Gemini project, which is expected to begin construction this year.

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