Ghana Agribusiness Report Q1 2013Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Nov. 14, 2012 - 66 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractBMI View: Ghana’s cocoa sector will remain a vital part of the country’s agricultural industry in thecoming years. After registering a significant year-on-year decline in 2011/12 production, we areforecasting a mild improvement in 2012/13 on the basis of better weather conditions. Elsewhere, we seethe country’s overall food security remaining fairly stable despite recent increases in global prices and,to some extent, local prices. The 2012/13 corn harvest is under way, and we expect production toincrease only slightly year-on-year, to 1.65mn tonnes. Over the long term, production could seeconsiderable growth should genetically modified seeds be adopted. This is now possible after changes tobio-safety laws in 2011. We believe that poultry production and consumption will see the most growthamong the livestock complex owing to price competitiveness and local preferences.Key forecasts Cocoa production growth to 2016/17: 15.1% to reach 990,000 tonnes. Yield gains are likelyto continue. Rising GDP will allow easier credit access to cocoa farmers wanting to expandproduction. Corn production growth to 2016/17: 40.0% to 2.24mn tonnes. Ghanaian corn yields remainlow in relative terms, with production still dominated by smallholders making limited use offertilisers, mechanisation, improved seeds and post-harvest facilities. However, a 50% fertilisersubsidy introduced by the government in 2008 is improving the situation. Industry Outlook Even with stagnant production, and our expectation for a mild increase in consumption, we see thecountry’s food security remaining broadly stable. Despite food price inflation, the country’s food securityhas generally remained stable in recent months owing to adequate supplies, as prices rose in line withglobal prices. The north of the country, bordering the Sahel region, remains the least food-secure of allregions. Looking forward, we see average production and weakening global prices to constrain food priceinflation over the coming months, assuming the country avoids dry weather. The 2012/13 season appearsless vulnerable to dry weather than the 2010/11 season, which faced a second consecutive year of dryweather owing to La Niña (which brings dry weather to Africa). For the 2012/13 season, we are expectinga mild El Niño weather pattern, which is likely to bring wetter weather. Although this could delayplantings, it could also increase yields. The death of Ghanaian President John Atta Mills on July 24 came largely as a surprise. However, eventssubsequent to Atta Mills’ death bode well for political stability. Vice President John Dramani Mahamawas sworn into office as caretaker president just hours after the announcement of Atta Mills’ death,demonstrating that the constitution is being respected and that Ghana’s political institutions arefunctioning smoothly. Furthermore, the atmosphere has been calm and respectful. For its part, theopposition New Patriotic Party suspended its campaigning immediately and put on hold the celebration ofits 20th anniversary, illustrating that the party does not intend to stir up tensions by capitalising on theloss of the ruling National Democratic Congress’s leader. Get full details about this report >> |
|
|
|
About MarketResearch.com
|
||
|
|
On the WEB
1/17/2013 - 32