Bangladesh Agribusiness Report Q1 2013Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Nov. 14, 2012 - 59 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractBMI View: According to the agriculture ministry, Bangladesh loses about 80,000 hectares of arable landowing to the impact of climate change, such as through droughts, salinity and floods. Indeed, we viewBangladesh’s extreme weather as a major risk to our outlook for the country’s agriculture sector. In fact,as crop cultivation is gradually pushed southward due to climate changes, a key factor for survival willbe adapting crop varieties to different cultivation environments.Key Forecasts Wheat production growth to 2016/17: 40.9% to 1.6mn tonnes. The main driver is animprovement in yields. We note that in Bangladesh, wheat cultivation remains a preferred optionfor non-irrigated land given the low farm input use (fertiliser, insecticides and labour). Sugar production growth to 2016/17: -45.6% to 68,000 tonnes by 2016/17. With farmersincreasingly planting more profitable cash crops such as cotton, we do not foresee the trend ofdeclining sugar production to reverse any time soon. Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 17.2% to 232,000 tonnes. Better economic conditionsand higher disposable incomes will help to drive demand for meat. Better disease control is alsoexpected to support the recovery of the sector. 2013 real GDP growth: 6.6%, from 4.9% in 2012. Predicted to average 6.3% from 2012 to2017. 2013 consumer price inflation: 5.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) average, from 10.8% y-o-y in2012. Predicted to average 6.4% from 2012 to 2017. 2013 real lending rates: 7.8% average, from 2.8% in 2012. Predicted to average 6.0% from2012 to 2017. Key Developments The International Rice Research Institute has recently found that large quantities of Bangladesh-grownrice have higher-than-usual levels of arsenic, as there are many parts of Bangladesh where water withhigh arsenic levels is used in rice cultivation. Through breeding new rice varieties and helping farmers toadopt improved crop management strategies, the International Rice Research Institute is working withfarmers on the ground in developing rice production techniques that reduce arsenic intake. In September 2012, the government of Bangladesh issued a statement to allow for a resumption of sugarexports after a two-year ban. Private companies have reportedly doubled sugar production, thus boostingthe domestic surplus of the sweetener. Coupled with the fact that state-run mills also had sufficient sugarin stock, there is an estimated total surplus of 2.0mn tonnes available for exports. Having said that, wemaintain our long term view for a continual decline of sugar production in Bangladesh on the back ofcrop conversion and lack of government support for the sector. Get full details about this report >> |
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