Australia Renewables Report Q1 2013Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Oct. 31, 2012 - 33 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractBMI View: The short to medium-term outlook for renewable energy in Australia is extremely positive,driven by growth in both small and large capacity installations. That said, we note that a review of thecountry's renewable energy target currently being carried out by regulators poses significant risks to ourforecasts, as we currently believe that no changes will be made to the target. We have also downgradedlong-term growth in solar energy on the back of new capacity information, but continue to expectsignificant growth for the sector.We are forecasting non-hydro renewable generation to grow by 15.7% in 2013 to reach 9.3 terawatt hours(TWh). This growth performance is significantly higher than the five-year moving average of 13.1%,which we attribute to new data on rooftop solar capacity and to a number of large projects coming online. One of these projects is the 420 megawatt (MW) Macarthur Wind farm in Victoria, which will be thelargest wind farm in Australia if completed. We expect wind energy to account for 59% of 2013 nonhydropowerrenewable generation. Our long-term forecasts for the renewables sector are relatively bullish, and we expect the nonhydropowerrenewable generation to grow by an average of 10.4% per annum between 2013 and 2017. We expect wind to be the dominant form of renewable energy, accounting for 62.2% of non-hydropowerenergy in 2017. Solar power will grow considerably as well, driven by a mixture of large- and small-scalecapacity, and will reach 18% of non-hydropower energy in 2017, while Biomass will account for 20%. Here are the key trends and regulatory changes in the industry: Carbon Tax Scheme - Australia’s parliament amended the country’s carbon tax scheme passedin 2012. The scheme will no longer have a price floor when it transitions to a free trade systemin 2015, and will involve greater integration with the European Union emissions trading scheme. Feed-in Tariffs (FiTs) were reduced in Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and WesternAustralia (WA). Several utilities have stepped up to fill the gap, and Horizon Power will bepaying AUD0.1-0.5 to customers who feed renewable energy back in WA. Plans to build the 150MW Moree solar PV farm were cancelled in February this year after theconsortium developing the project failed to secure a power purchase agreement. The project wasinitially proposed under the government’s Solar Flagships programme, but since its closure, thegovernment has awarded the funds to AGL to develop 159MW of solar power. Get full details about this report >> |
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