The Danish Defense Industry - Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2017

Published by: Strategic Defence Intelligence

Published: Oct. 20, 2012 - 139 Pages


Table of Contents

1 Introduction
1.1 What is this Report About?
1.2 Definitions
1.3 Summary Methodology
1.4 SDI Terrorism Index
1.5 About Strategic Defence Intelligence
2 Executive Summary
3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1 Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1 Danish defense expenditure expected to register a CAGR of XX% during the forecast period
3.1.2 Peacekeeping, counter-piracy, and counter-terrorism operations drive defense spending
3.2 Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1 Majority of defense budget allocated for revenue expenditure
3.2.2 Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP to be XX% in the forecast period
3.2.3 Per capita defense spend to decline during the forecast period
3.2.4 Equipment expenditure share to increase marginally during the forecast period
3.2.5 Decrease in equipment expenditure is anticipated during the forecast period
3.2.6 Budget allocation for other capital expenditure to fall during the forecast period
3.2.7 Share of personnel expenditure to improve during the forecast period
3.3 Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1 Homeland security budget to increase during the forecast period
3.3.2 Extremism, espionage, drug trafficking, and cyber security to drive the homeland security market
3.3.3 Denmark experienced low terror activity during the review period
3.4 Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1 Danish defense budget expected to record a CAGR of XX% during the forecast period
3.4.2 Danish military expenditure is limited compared to leading global defense spenders
3.4.3 The country allocates a lower percentage of GDP to defense than other NATO members
3.5 Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers
3.5.1 Modernization of the armed forces will create demand for self-propelled artillery vehicles
3.5.2 Demand for Armored Personnel Carriers (APC) will experience surge in demand
3.5.3 Armored wrecker vehicles are expected to increase in demand
3.5.4 Increasing demand for Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) expected
3.5.5 Increased demand for armored vehicles expected
3.5.6 Ship-based helicopters open new market opportunities
3.5.7 Advanced communication systems will provide attractive market opportunities
3.5.8 Demand for advanced targeting pod is expected to increase
4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1 Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1 Defense imports expected to register negative growth during the forecast period
4.1.2 The majority of defense imports were from the US and Sweden
4.1.3 Aircraft, Armored vehicles, and sensors constitute majority of Danish arms imports
4.2 Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1 Defense exports grew significantly during the review period
4.2.2 Lithuania and Brunei are the largest importers of Danish arms
4.2.3 Sensors and ships account for majority of exports
5 Industry Dynamics
5.1 Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1 Bargaining power of supplier: low
5.1.2 Bargaining power of buyer: high
5.1.3 Barrier to entry: low
5.1.4 Intensity of rivalry: medium to high
5.1.5 Threat of substitution: high
6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1 Market Regulation
6.1.1 Offset policy aids the development of the domestic defense industry
6.1.2 Denmark permits XX% foreign direct investment in defense sector
6.2 Market Entry Route
6.2.1 Forming subsidiaries or acquiring Danish companies are good market entry opportunities
6.2.2 Forming consortiums and product development agreements open new market entry strategy choices
6.2.3 Joint weapon development programs are a viable market entry opportunity
6.3 Key Challenges
6.3.1 Low defense budget and limited technological capability hinder market entry by foreign companies
6.3.2 Preference to procurement from US and Nordic companies challenging for other suppliers
7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1 Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2 Key Foreign Companies
7.2.1 Systematic A/S: overview
7.2.2 Systematic A/S: products and services
7.2.3 Systematic A/S: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.4 Systematic A/S: alliances
7.2.5 Systematic A/S: recent contract wins
7.2.6 Systematic A/S: financial analysis
7.2.7 Terma A/S: overview
7.2.8 Terma A/S: products and service
7.2.9 Terma A/S: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.10 Terma A/S: alliances
7.2.11 Terma A/S: recent contract wins
7.2.12 Terma A/S: financial analysis
7.2.13 AP Services A/S: overview
7.2.14 AP Services A/S: products and services
7.2.15 AP Services A/S: recent contract wins
7.2.16 Arenalogic ApS: overview
7.2.17 Arenalogic ApS: products and services
7.2.18 Arenalogic ApS: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.19 Arenalogic ApS: alliances
7.2.20 Copenhagen Sensor Technology ApS: overview
7.2.21 Copenhagen Sensor Technology ApS: products and services
7.2.22 Copenhagen Sensor Technology ApS: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.23 Copenhagen Sensor Technology ApS: alliances
7.2.24 Copenhagen Sensor Technology ApS: recent contract wins
7.2.25 Danish Aerotech A/S: overview
7.2.26 Danish Aerotech A/S: products and services
7.2.27 Danish Aerotech A/S: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.28 Danish Aerotech A/S: alliances
7.2.29 Danish Aerotech A/S: recent contract wins
7.2.30 Falck Schmidt Defence Systems A/S: overview
7.2.31 Falck Schmidt Defence Systems A/S: products and services
7.2.32 Falck Schmidt Defence Systems A/S: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.33 Falck Schmidt Defence Systems A/S: alliances
7.2.34 Falck Schmidt Defence Systems A/S: recent contract wins
7.2.35 IFAD TS A/S: overview
7.2.36 IFAD TS A/S: products and services
7.2.37 IFAD TS A/S: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.38 IFAD TS A/S: alliances
7.2.39 IFAD TS A/S: recent contract wins
7.3 Key Foreign Companies
7.3.1 Alcatel-Lucent Denmark A/S: overview
7.3.2 Alcatel-Lucent Denmark A/S: products and services
7.3.3 Alcatel-Lucent Denmark A/S: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.3.4 Alcatel-Lucent Denmark A/S: recent contract wins
7.3.5 Cobham Surveillance (Spectronic Products): overview
7.3.6 Cobham Surveillance (Spectronic Products): products and services
7.3.7 Cobham Surveillance (Spectronic Products): alliances
7.3.8 Lockheed Martin Denmark: overview
7.3.9 Lockheed Martin Denmark: products and services
7.3.10 Lockheed Martin Denmark: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.3.11 Lockheed Martin Denmark: alliances
7.3.12 Lockheed Martin Denmark: recent contract wins
7.3.13 TenCate Advanced Armour Denmark A/S: overview
7.3.14 TenCate Advanced Armour Denmark A/S: defense products
7.3.15 TenCate Advanced Armour Denmark A/S: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.3.16 TenCate Advanced Armour Denmark A/S: alliances
7.3.17 TenCate Advanced Armour Denmark A/S: recent contract wins
8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1 Demographics and Social Statistics
8.1.1 Population – Female
8.1.2 Population - Male
8.2 Economic Performance
8.2.1 Construction Output, Current Prices, Local Currency
8.2.2 Construction Output, Current Prices, US Dollars
8.2.3 Current Account Balance as Percentage of GDP
8.2.4 Exports of goods and services, current prices
8.2.5 Exports of services, current prices
8.2.6 Fiscal Balance as a percentage of GDP
8.2.7 Foreign Direct Investment
8.2.8 GDP at Purchasing Power Parity
8.2.9 GDP, Constant Prices (Local Currency)
8.2.10 GDP, Constant Prices (US$)
8.2.11 GDP, Current Prices (Local Currency)
8.2.12 GDP, Current Prices (US$)
8.2.13 General Government Final Consumption Expenditure
8.2.14 Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Current Prices
8.2.15 Imports of goods and services
8.2.16 Imports of services
8.2.17 Inflation, average consumer prices
8.2.18 Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (Local Currency Bn)
8.2.19 Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (US$ Billions)
8.2.20 US$ Exchange Rate (Annual Average)
8.2.21 Wholesale Price Index
8.3 Energy and Utilities
8.3.1 Fossil Fuel Proved Natural Gas Reserves
8.3.2 Fossil Fuel Proved Oil Reserves
8.3.3 Hydroelectricity Installed Capacity
8.3.4 Natural Gas Consumption
8.3.5 Natural Gas Imports
8.3.6 Net Conventional Thermal Electricity Generation
8.3.7 Net Geothermal, Solar, Wind, and Wood Electric Power Generation
8.3.8 Net Hydroelectric Power Generation
8.3.9 Petroleum, Consumption
8.3.10 Petroleum, Production
8.4 Labor
8.4.1 People Employed in R & D
8.5 Minerals
8.5.1 Coal Consumption
8.6 Social & Political Risk
8.6.1 Political Stability Index
8.6.2 Transparency Index
8.7 Technology
8.7.1 Fixed Broadband Internet Subscribers
8.7.2 Gross Domestic Expenditure on Research and Development as % of GDP
8.7.3 Investment in Telecommunication
8.7.4 Patents Granted
8.7.5 Fixed line calling cost local
8.7.6 Fixed Line Calling Cost National
9 Appendix
9.1 Contact Us
9.2 About SDI
9.3 Disclaimer
List of Tables
Table 1: Danish Defense Expenditure, 2008–2012
Table 2: Danish Defense Expenditure, 2013–2017
Table 3: Danish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2008–2012
Table 4: Danish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013–2017
Table 5: Danish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2008–2012
Table 6: Danish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013–2017
Table 7: Danish Per Capita Defense Spend (US$), 2008–2012
Table 8: Danish Per Capita Defense Spend (US$), 2013–2017
Table 9: Danish Capital Budget Breakup (%), 2008–2012
Table 10: Danish Capital Budget Breakup (%), 2013–2017
Table 11: Danish Equipment Expenditure (US$ billion), 2008–2012
Table 12: Danish Equipment Expenditure (US$ billion), 2013–2017
Table 13: Danish Other Capital Equipment (US$ million), 2008–2012
Table 14: Danish Other Capital Equipment (US$ million), 2013–2017
Table 15: Danish Revenue Budget Breakup (%), 2008–2012
Table 16: Danish Revenue Budget Breakup (%), 2013–2017
Table 17: Danish Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2008–2012
Table 18: Danish Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2013–2017
Table 19: SDI Terrorism Index, 2011
Table 20: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2008–2012 vs. 2013–2017
Table 21: Offset Regulations in Denmark
Table 22: Systematic A/S – Product Focus
Table 23: Systematic: Alliances
Table 24: Systematic: Recent Contract Wins
Table 25: Terma A/S – Product Focus
Table 26: Terma A/S: Alliances
Table 27: Terma A/S: Recent Contract Wins
Table 28: AP Services A/S – Product Focus
Table 29: AP Services A/S: Recent Contract Wins
Table 30: Arenalogic ApS – Product Focus
Table 31: Arenalogic ApS: Alliances
Table 32: Copenhagen Sensor Technology ApS – Product Focus
Table 33: CST: Alliances
Table 34: CST: Recent Contract Wins
Table 35: Danish Aerotech A/S – Product Focus
Table 36: Systematic: Alliances
Table 37: Danish Aerotech A/S: Recent Contract Wins
Table 38: Falck Schmidt Defence Systems A/S – Product Focus
Table 39: Falck Schmidt Defence Systems: Alliances
Table 40: Falck Schmidt Defence Systems: Recent contract wins
Table 41: IFAD TS A/S – Product Focus
Table 42: IFAD TS A/S: Alliances
Table 43: IFAD TS A/S: Recent Contract Wins
Table 44: Alcatel-Lucent Denmark A/S – Product Focus
Table 45: Alcatel-Lucent Denmark A/S: Recent Contract Wins
Table 46: Cobham Surveillance (Spectronic Products)– Product Focus
Table 47: Cobham Surveillance (Spectronic Products): Alliances
Table 48: Lockheed Martin Denmark – Product Focus
Table 49: Lockheed Martin Denmark: Alliances
Table 50: Lockheed Martin Denmark: Recent Contract Wins
Table 51: TenCate Advanced Armour Denmark A/S – Product Focus
Table 52: TenCate Advanced Armour Denmark A/S: Alliances
Table 53: TenCate Advanced Armour Denmark A/S: Recent Contract Wins
List of Figures
Figure 1: Danish Defense Expenditure, 2008–2012
Figure 2: Danish Defense Expenditure, 2013–2017
Figure 3: Danish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2008–2012
Figure 4: Danish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013–2017
Figure 5: Danish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2008–2012
Figure 6: Danish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013–2017
Figure 7: Danish Per Capita Defense Spend (US$), 2008–2012
Figure 8: Danish Per Capita Defense Spend (US$), 2013–2017
Figure 9: Danish Capital Budget Breakup (%), 2008–2012
Figure 10: Danish Capital Budget Breakup (%), 2013–2017
Figure 11: Danish Equipment Expenditure (US$ billion), 2008–2012
Figure 12: Danish Equipment Expenditure (US$ billion), 2013–2017
Figure 13: Danish Other Capital Equipment (US$ million), 2008–2012
Figure 14: Danish Other Capital Equipment (US$ million), 2013–2017
Figure 15: Danish Revenue Budget Breakup (%), 2008–2012
Figure 16: Danish Revenue Budget Breakup (%), 2013–2017
Figure 17: Danish Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2008–2012
Figure 18: Danish Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2013–2017
Figure 19: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2011
Figure 20: SDI Terrorism Index, 2011
Figure 21: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2008–2012 vs. 2013–2017
Figure 22: Benchmarking with World’s Largest Defense Spenders (US$ Billion), 2012 and 2017
Figure 23: Benchmarking with Large Defense Spenders as % of GDP – 2012
Figure 24: Danish Defense Imports (US$ million), 2007–2011
Figure 25: Danish Defense Imports by Country (%), 2007–2011
Figure 26: Danish Defense Imports by Category, 2007–2011
Figure 27: Danish Defense Exports (US$ million), 2007–2011
Figure 28: Danish Defense Exports by Country (%), 2007–2011
Figure 29: Danish Defense Exports by Category (%), 2007–2011
Figure 30: Industry Dynamics: Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
Figure 31: Systematic: Revenue Trend Analysis (EUR Million), FY2007–2011
Figure 32: Systematic: Operating Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), FY2007–2011
Figure 33: Systematic: Net Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), FY2007–2011
Figure 34: Terma A/S: Revenue Trend Analysis (DKK Million), FY2007–2011
Figure 35: Terma A/S: Operating Profit Trend Analysis (DKK Million), FY2007–2011
Figure 36: Terma A/S: Net Profit Trend Analysis (DKK Million), FY2007–2011
Figure 37: Danish Population – Female (In Millions), 2008–2017
Figure 38: Danish Population – Male (In Millions), 2008–2017
Figure 39: Danish Construction Output, Current Prices, Local Currency (Billions), 2001–2010
Figure 40: Danish Construction Output, Current Prices, US Dollars (In Billions), 2001–2010
Figure 41: Danish Current Account Balance as Percentage of GDP, 2008–2017
Figure 42: Danish Exports of goods and services, current prices (US$ Billion), 2001– 2010
Figure 43: Danish Exports of services, current prices (Local Currency Billion), 2003– 2012
Figure 44: Danish Fiscal Balance as a percentage of GDP, 2001–2009
Figure 45: Danish Foreign Direct Investment(US$ Billion), 2001–2010
Figure 46: Danish GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (US$ Billion), 2006–2015
Figure 47: Danish GDP at Constant Prices (Local Currency Billion), 2006–2015
Figure 48: Danish GDP at Constant Prices (US$ Billion), 2006–2015
Figure 49: Danish GDP at Current Prices(Local Currency Billion), 2006–2015
Figure 50: Danish GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2006–2015
Figure 51: Danish General Government Final Consumption Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2001–2010
Figure 52: Danish Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Current Prices(US$ Billion), 2001–2010
Figure 53: Danish Imports of goods and services (current US$ Billion), 2001–2010
Figure 54: Danish Imports of services (current local currency billion), 2003–2012
Figure 55: Danish Inflation, average consumer prices, 2008–2017
Figure 56: Danish Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (Local Currency Billion), 2001–2010
Figure 57: Danish Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2001–2010
Figure 58: Danish US$ Exchange Rate, 2002–2011
Figure 59: Danish Wholesale Price Index, 2000–2009
Figure 60: Danish Fossil Fuel Proved Natural Gas Reserves (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2002–2011
Figure 61: Danish Fossil Fuel Proved Oil Reserves (Billion Barrels), 2002–2011
Figure 62: Danish Hydroelectricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2000–2009
Figure 63: Danish Natural Gas Consumption (Billion Cubic Feet), 2001–2010
Figure 64: Danish Natural Gas Production (Billion Cubic Feet), 2001–2010
Figure 65: Danish Net Conventional Thermal Electricity Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001–2010
Figure 66: Danish Net Geothermal, Solar, Wind, and Wood Electric Power Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001–2010
Figure 67: Danish Net Hydroelectric Power Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001–2010
Figure 68: Danish Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2002–2011
Figure 69: Danish Petroleum Production (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2002–2011
Figure 70: Danish People Employed in R & D (Number of researchers per million people), 2001–2009
Figure 71: Danish Coal Consumption (Thousand Short Tons), 2001–2010
Figure 72: Danish Political Stability Index, 2002–2010
Figure 73: Danish Transparency Index, 2002–2011
Figure 74: Danish Fixed Broadband Internet Subscribers (Thousands), 2001–2010
Figure 75: Gross Domestic Expenditure on Research and Development as % of GDP, 2001–2009
Figure 76: Danish Investment in Telecommunication (EUR Million), 2000–2009
Figure 77: Patents Granted, 2002–2011
Figure 78: Fixed line calling cost local, 2001–2010
Figure 79: Fixed Line Calling Cost National, 2001–2010

Abstract

Product Synopsis

This report is the result of SDI’s extensive market and company research covering the Danish defense industry. It provides detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values including key growth stimulators, analysis of the leading companies in the industry, and key news.

Introduction and Landscape

Why was the report written?
The Danish defense Industry - Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2017, offers the reader an insight into the market opportunities and entry strategies adopted by foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to gain market share in the Danish defense industry.

What is the current market landscape and what is changing?
During the review period, Denmark’s ministry of defense (MoD) allocated an average of 75.6% of its total defense budget to revenue expenditure, and the remaining 24.4% to capital expenses. Capital expenditure is estimated to increase to 25.5% of the total defense budget during the forecast period as a result of increasing investment in equipment as the country modernizes its armed forces. The share of revenue expenditure is, therefore, expected to decline to 74.5% of the overall defense expenditure.

What are the key drivers behind recent market changes?
Defense expenditure will be driven by peacekeeping, and counter-piracy and counter-terrorism operations. In support of NATO, Denmark mainly deploys its military forces in Afghanistan, Lebanon, Kosovo, and Iraq, and Denmark supports NATO in its efforts to combat piracy around the Horn of Africa (Operation Ocean Shield), and has contributed support ships, troops, and air surveillance systems. Terrorist activity has increased around the world, and in Europe in particular, countries are facing new terrorist threats; in 2009 alone, there were 294 failed, obstructed, or successfully executed terrorist attacks in EU member countries, and 587 arrests of suspects. To prevent and investigate security threats to the country, the Danish national security intelligence agency PET was created, with a budget of DKK549 million (US$102.8 million) in 2009.

What makes this report unique and essential to read?
The Danish Defense Industry - Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2017 provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2013to 2017, including highlights of key growth stimulators. It also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.
Key Features and Benefits

The report provides a detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2013to 2017, including highlights of key growth stimulators. It also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.

The report includes trend analysis of imports and exports, together with their implications and impact on the Danish defense industry.

The report covers five forces analysis to identify various power centers in the industry and how these are expected to develop in the future.

The report allows readers to identify possible ways to enter the market, together with detailed descriptions of how existing companies have entered the market, including key contracts, alliances, and strategic initiatives.

The report helps the reader to understand the competitive landscape of the defense industry in Denmark. It provides an overview of key defense companies, both domestic and foreign, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.

Key Market Issues

During the review period, Danish defense expenditure registered a CAGR of -2.32%, and in 2012 is valued at US$4.11 billion. Active participation in NATO and United Nations peacekeeping missions, counter-piracy operations, and measures against potential terrorist threats, stimulated expenditure during the review period. Such factors are expected to drive defense expenditure at a limited pace throughout the forecast period, with spending likely to decrease at a CAGR of -2.79% and to reach US$3.65 billion by 2017. The Danish defense budget stood at 1.3% of GDP in 2012, and is expected to decline to 1% of GDP by 2017 as the country’s GDP grows at a faster rate than its defense budget.

During 2009, Danish defense imports demonstrated significant growth, before recording a sharp decline in 2010 and 2011 due to the financial crisis and subsequent reduction in total defense expenditure. The significant growth during 2007 was mainly due to the higher costs of capital additions and equipment support for military operations in Afghanistan, and increased investment in logistics capabilities for the armed forces. However, as the MoD increased the budget expenditure in 2011, imports of defense equipment are expected to register a negative growth due to the country’s plan to reduce the defense budget for the forecast period.

Due to lower defense spending during the forecast period, per-capita defense expenditure is likely to decline from US$742.3 during the review period to US$677.2 during the forecast period. Denmark’s population is likely to increase from 5.5 million in the review period to 5.7 million by the end of the forecast period.

Key Highlights

Denmark’s defense exports are low compared to its defense imports; however, defense exports increased in 2011 with the country supplying sensors to Brunei. During 2007–2011, defense exports have shown significant growth, supported mainly by defense co-operation between Denmark and Lithuania as both countries are members of NATO and the EU. With increasing spending on modernization and offset contracts, Denmark is likely to moderately increase its defense exports over the forecast period.

The Danish homeland security market is represented by the budgets of the police services, fire protection services, law courts, prisons, and others. Denmark’s homeland security budget was US$3.35 billion in 2012and is estimated to increase to US$3.7 billion in 2017. As a consequence of increasing threats to national security in recent years, mainly from Islamist terrorist groups, the government is likely to spend more to counter these threats and allocate more to maintain public order and safety. To prevent and investigate security threats to Denmark, Politiets Efterretningstjeneste (PET) was established with an objective to procure as much information as possible on the capacity, determination, and ability of target persons and groups.

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