Cameroon Agribusiness Report Q4 2012

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Sep. 26, 2012 - 72 Pages


Table of Contents

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Cameroon Agriculture SWOT
Cameroon Business Environment SWOT
Supply & Demand Analysis
Cameroon Cocoa Outlook
Table: Cameroon Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Cameroon Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Cameroon Coffee Outlook
Table: Cameroon Coffee Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Cameroon Coffee Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Cameroon Sugar Outlook
Table: Cameroon Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Cameroon Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Cameroon Grains Outlook
Table: Cameroon Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Cameroon Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Grains Update
Wheat: Little Potential For Export Restrictions
Corn: US Downgrades Tighten Market Further
Soybean: South America In The Spotlight
Rice: The Only Well-Supplied Grain Market
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Monthly Softs Update
Cocoa: Looking Supported
Coffee: Supported In Short Term
Palm Oil: Heading Back To Support
Sugar: Searching For Support
Cotton: Still In A Downward Trend Channel
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Africa GM Seeds Outlook
Table: Select Countries – Global Rank By Corn Yields In 2011/12
EMEA Machinery Outlook
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Food
Table: Cameroon – Food Consumption, 2010-2016
Table: Cameroon – Confectionery, 2010-2016
Drink
Table: Cameroon – Alcoholic Drinks, 2010-2016
Table: Cameroon – Soft Drinks, 2010-2016
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Cameroon – Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2016
Country Snapshot
Table: Cameroon’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: Cameroon’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Cameroon’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Cameroon’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

BMI View: The figures starting to come in for 2011/12 harvests across the agricultural sectors coveredin this report suggest a somewhat disappointing performance. Cocoa farmers in particular have had adifficult year due to the impact of unfavourable weather conditions and an associated increase inoutbreaks of pests and disease. Sugar output has stagnated, and corn has registered a slight downturn asproduction struggles to recover from a severe year-on-year decline in 2010/11. Coffee stands out as theone commodity to have registered growth – impressive growth at that – as better access to herbicides andan ‘on-year’ for the country’s robusta plants resulted in big gains. That said, this has yet to translate intoincreased exports, as farmers have hoarded stocks in response to lower prices. The medium- and longertermpicture is much more encouraging, as increased investment and strong GDP growth will seeincreased production across the board.

Key Forecasts

Corn consumption growth to 2016: 16.5% to 1.5mn tonnes. Demand for corn will recover asprices moderate in the medium term and solid economic growth drives demand for corn-fedlivestock.

Coffee production growth to 2015/16: 74.0% to 1.1mn 60kg bags. Production is expected torecover from 2011’s slump, and the sector will benefit from investment in pesticides, fertilizersand infrastructure.

Cocoa production growth to 2015/16: 7.2% to 257,300 tonnes. Government and private sectorinvestment will improve yields and quality leading to increased exports.

Sugar consumption growth to 2015/16: 42.4% to 299,000 tonnes. Significant increases inGDP per capita, rapid population growth and a fast expanding food and drink sector will supportstrong growth.

2012 real GDP growth: 4.7% (up from 4.2% in 2011 and averaging 4.8% between 2011 and2015).

2012 consumer price inflation: 2.7% (down from 2.9% in 2011).

Industry Outlook

Although 2012 may not have been a standout year for agribusiness in Cameroon as far as production isconcerned, several important investment projects suggest that the outlook is positive. The African CocoaInitiative, a major collaboration between the World Cocoa Foundation, the US Agency for InternationalDevelopment, the government of the Netherlands and leading international cocoa buyers, was launched inCameroon in July. The initiative aims to increase productivity and sustainability in the sector by fosteringpublic-private cooperative investments in cocoa and agriculture, improving the genetic quality andproductivity of the cocoa varieties under cultivation, expanding farmer education and trainingprogrammes, and improving the agriculture input supply chains that serve farmers. The budget for theproject stands at US$13.8mn (CFA7.3mn) with plans to leverage at least US$25mn from the privatesector over the duration of the initiative.

Further private sector support for the cocoa sector comes in the form of Swiss chocolate manufacturerBarry Callebaut’s ‘Cocoa Horizons’ scheme in cooperation with NGO Rainforest Alliance. Theprogramme aims to boost farm productivity, increase quality and improve family livelihoods. Thecompany has begun training members of five farmer cooperatives in central Cameroon to enable them tobecome independently certified by the Rainforest Alliance. Approximately 1,000 farmers will receivetraining in the next 12 months. Barry Callebaut staff in Cameroon will deliver training in goodagricultural practices and provide support in setting up internal control systems and improvingadministrative procedures at the cooperatives with support of the Rainforest Alliance.

Cameroon’s sugar sector received a potentially transformative intervention as Justin Sugar Mills, ajointly owned Indian and Cameroonian enterprise, announced the start of work on a sugar cane plantationand processing complex. The firm hopes to produce 60,000 tonnes of refined sugar a year by 2014 withthe aim to produce much more than that in the future. This would provide much-needed competition forformerly state-run Sosucam, which has struggled to increase output in response to soaring demand.

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