Satellite TV in Western Europe & North America - Will the future of satellite be guided by 3D?

Published by: IDATE

Published: Jun. 1, 2011

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1. Satellite holds its own against other broadcasting networks

1.2. Satellite still the undisputed market leader for high-quality TV broadcasting (HD and 3D)

1.3. What positioning should satellite operators adopt faced with the potential long-term threat of content migration to the Web?

1.4. Will the future of satellite be guided by its complementarity with other TV/video distribution networks?

1.5. Growing demand for satellite capacity for TV broadcasting

2. Methodology

2.1. IDATE market reports

2.2. Definition of indicators and sources

3. Major TV market trends

3.1. TV networks align their services with time-shifted viewing

3.1.1. Catch-up TV is everywhere

3.1.2. VoD as a means of boosting ARPU

3.1.3. Broadcasters’ other online initiatives

3.1.4. Wider availability of TV on mobile and roaming devices

3.2. Popularity of high-quality video: HDTV and 3D

3.2.1. HD broadcasting will soon be ubiquitous

3.2.2. Emergence of 3DTV

3.3. Set-top boxes: new customer loyalty tools

3.4. Web migration of content, a growing source of interactivity

3.5. What new sources of growth for satellite?

4. A host of technologies coveting the TV broadcasting market

4.1. Not all reception modes are progressing at the same pace

4.1.1. Terrestrial TV still leader in Western Europe, but on the decline

4.1.2. In North America, virtually the entire market is shared by cable and satellite

4.2. Digital TV makes real strides

4.2.1. Swift digitization of terrestrial and satellite subscribers, though still much to be done for cable customers

4.2.2. Disparate state of affairs in the different countries

4.3. The different networks’ place in the pay-TV market

4.3.1. Cable still the pay-TV leader but steadily losing ground

4.3.2. Satellite still holding up but must confront the IPTV surge

4.3.3. Terrestrial still marginal

4.3.4. State of competition between pay-TV providers

4.3.5. Strategies vary from player to player

4.4. Network coverage is key to success

4.5. Comparative analysis of the different networks’ broadcasting costs

4.5.1. Satellite transmission costs

4.5.2. Terrestrial transmission costs

4.5.3. Cable networks’ transmission costs

4.5.4. ADSL transmission costs

4.6. Satellite holds its own against other broadcasting networks

5. All networks are now ready for the switch to HD and arrival of 3D

5.1. Satellite still the main purveyor of HD content and a 3D pioneer

5.1.1. Clear improvements in the network’s technical performance

5.1.2. Satellite operators open up new orbital positions

5.2. The digital dividend will enable the development of HD on DTT

5.2.1. Not enough spectrum for HDTV on the terrestrial network, but the digital dividend will change the order of things from 2012 on throughout Western Europe

5.2.2. The digital dividend has already been allocated in the United States

5.2.3. ATSC: first HD standard in the United States

5.3. Cable networks' migration to ultra-fast broadband

5.3.1. Growing network capacity

5.3.2. New services affecting demand for capacity

5.3.3. The investments needed will mean choices and trade-offs

5.3.4. TV broadcasting switches to IP

5.4. The future of IPTV will be over superfast networks

5.4.1. In theory, ADSL 2 + is compatible with HDTV… in practice, this is less true

5.4.2. VDSL only resolves some problems

5.4.3. Optical fiber moves into premium IPTV (HD & 3D)

5.5. Growing selection of HD content online with a picture quality still poor but improving

5.5.1. Picture quality poor but improving

5.6. Satellite the undisputed leader for high-quality broadcasting in the short term

6. 3D broadcasting on the various networks

6.1. Status of 3D

6.1.1. Definition

6.1.2. The different 3D picture formats

6.1.3. First steps towards standardization

6.1.4. Rollouts

6.2. Developments in 3D broadcasting techniques on the various networks

6.2.1. Compression

6.2.2. Broadcasting

6.3. Impact on network capacity

6.3.1. Recap

6.3.2. IP networks

6.3.3. Broadcasting networks

6.3.4. Summary

7. Increase in satellite TV broadcasting capacity up to 2015

7.1. Main modeling assumptions

7.2. Forecast rise in the number of satellite transponders dedicated to TV broadcasting
for the period 2010-2015

List of Tables

Table 1: Comparative shares of the various TV broadcasting modes in North America and Western Europe,
at end-2010

Table 2: Performance of 3D broadcasting, by network

Table 3: Details of the main 3DTV satellite services deployed

Table 4: Main growth constraints on 3DTV

Table 5: Main features of pay-TV providers' set-top boxes

Table 6: Players in France show a penchant for connected TV

Table 7: Key characteristics of video usage

Table 8: TV household digitization by network and country, in 2010

Table 9: Operators of paid DTT services in Western Europe

Table 10: Obligations requiring major channel editors to supply the population with DTT, by category (France)64

Table 11: Comparative shares of different TV broadcast modes in North America and Western Europe, at end-2010

Table 12: Satellite HDTV compatibility in MPEG-4 AVC per 36 MHz frequency

Table 13: European countries where the analog switch-off is now complete

Table 14: European countries where the analog switch-off is to be completed by 2012

Table 15: HD compatibility on DTT networks

Table 16: HD compatibility on DTT networks

Table 17: Characteristics of cable modem standards

Table 18: Some examples of DOCSIS 3.0 deployments

Table 19: Several country-specific plans in Europe and North America

Table 20: Summary of 3D formats

Table 21 Summary of the various standardization bodies’ areas of activity

Table 22: Details of 3DTV rollouts by type of TV network

Table 23: Encoding and compression, by content type

Table 24: Comparison of Phase 1 & Phase 2 formats

Table 25: Satellite compatibility of 3DTV in MPEG-4 AVC: DVB-S versus DVB-S2

Table 26: Cable compatibility with 3DTV in MPEG-4 AVC: DVB-C versus DVB-C2

Table 27: 3D compatibility of 3DTV in MPEG-4 AVC, DTT

Table 28: Developments in encoding

Table 29: Summary, by network

List of Figures

Figure 1: HbbTV Architecture

Figure 2: Shifts in demand for satellite capacity for TV broadcasting in Western Europe, 2010-2015

Figure 3: Shifts in demand for satellite capacity for TV broadcasting in North America, 2010-2015

Figure 4: Consumption of catch-up TV services by Web users familiar with this type of service

Figure 5: Consumption of VoD services on computer

Figure 6: Number of HDTV households by platform and country, end-2009

Figure 7: Growing number of 3D satellite channels in Western Europe and North America, 2010-2015

Figure 8: Presentation of Canal+’s new satellite decoder, Le Cube

Figure 9: Interactive applications on AT&T’s U-verse fiber IPTV service

Figure 10: Eutelsat’s audience based on its orbital positions

Figure 11: Map illustrating TV reception modes in Western Europe, end-2010

Figure 12: Map illustrating TV reception modes in North America, end-2010

Figure 13: SES anticipates a fall in demand for satellite capacity over North America from 2011-2017

Figure 14: Map illustrating digitization by country, end-2010

Figure 15: Map illustrating pay-TV networks in Western Europe & North America

Figure 16: Growth of pay-TV networks in Western Europe & North America

Figure 17: Growth of cable pay-TV subscribers in Western Europe & North America, 2006-2010

Figure 18: Growth of satellite pay-TV subscribers in Western Europe & North America, 2006-2010

Figure 19: Sky triple play subscribers up 36% between 2009 & 2010

Figure 20: Growth of ADSL pay-TV subscribers in Western Europe & North America, 2006-2010

Figure 21: Growth of pay-TV subscribers on the terrestrial network in Western Europe & North America, 2006-2010

Figure 22: Map illustrating the competition faced by DTH packages

Figure 23: BSkyB’s multi-device strategy

Figure 24: Kabel Deutschland to launch its VoD solution in 2011

Figure 25: TiVo-Virgin Media partnership

Figure 26: FiOS targets a more affluent clientele

Figure 27: Comparison of zones covered by networks, by type of dwelling

Figure 28: Connection cost by type of geographical zone

Figure 29: Astra’s 19.2°E orbital position is Europe’s costliest

Figure 30: Number of HD channels transmitted at several flagship positions, end-2010

Figure 31: Gains with DVB-S2

Figure 32: Growth of Eutelsat’s orbital positions at end-2009

Figure 33: Combined reception from the 9.0°E / 13.0°E orbital slots

Figure 34: 70% of DirecTV’s capacity is concentrated at 3 flagship positions

Figure 35: Future R7, R8 & PMT multiplexes in France

Figure 36: Schedule for the digital dividend in Western Europe

Figure 37: DVB-T & DVB-T2 in the United Kingdom

Figure 38: Future HD plans and DVB-T2 rollouts in Europe

Figure 39: Available bandwidth versus capacity needed for applications

Figure 40: Cable operators’ CAPEX

Figure 41: Investment required per new subscriber

Figure 42: Cost of connecting a new cable subscriber

Figure 43: Length of local loop in various countries

Figure 44: xDSL performance

Figure 45: AT&T’s U-verse service, offering more than 140 HD channels at end-2010

Figure 46: Differences in picture quality depend on the resolution and encoding used

Figure 47: Example of HD video online

Figure 48: Illustration of spatial encoding

Figure 49: Illustration of temporal encoding

Figure 50: 2D + illustration of metadata encoding

Figure 51: Description of the MPEG 3D Video format

Figure 52: Technical description of MVC

Figure 53: MVC gain in compression, depending on the number of viewpoints

Figure 54: Example of a TV set requiring 9 viewpoints

Figure 55: Technical chain for Sky’s 3D service

Figure 56: Description of mechanism for converting SbS and TaB to Frame Sequential

Figure 57: Description of Eutelsat test

Figure 58: Shifts in demand for satellite capacity for TV broadcasting in Western Europe, 2010-2015

Figure 59: Shifts in demand for satellite capacity for TV broadcasting in North America, 2010-2015

Abstract

This IDATE report looks at the latest developments and major trends in television markets, as much in terms of satellite’s prominence as a broadcasting mode in national TV markets, as the strategies employed by the broadcast networks and pay-TV services, especially with respect to their 3D offers, and provides an analysis of how this affects the satellite industry.

Key questions

• What are the main sources of growth for satellite in the TV broadcasting market?
• Do terrestrial networks pose a threat to satellite’s long-term future as a broadcasting technology?
• Will TV networks choose between the different networks for broadcasting their content?
• What is the real potential of 3D services?
• How will compression and 3D broadcasting standards evolve on the different networks?

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