Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefing: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefing. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefings
1. Lead Article: Two to five page briefing headed by a synopsis of events-driven analysis for the week, which highlights most recent data releases, and political and economic developments.
2. Historical, forecast, and analytical charts and graphs support the lead article. Country specific and/or Eurozone charts include the most relevant indicators and exemplify any changes in the outlook. The historical charts typically offer a 10 to 15 year time series and cover headline and other relevant indicators including GDP, employment, inflation, exchange rate changes, consumer and business confidence, developments in the capital markets, the composition of sovereign debt including amortization schedules and changes in yields, economic outlook by sector, etc. The forecast charts typically look out to four years ahead. In addition, analytical graphics clearly present empirical evidence supporting the text.
3. Latest Data in Detail: One to two pages of summary analysis and associated graphics that offer a 10 to 15 year snapshot of the weekâ€™s data releases. .
4. The Week Ahead: A chart of scheduled data releases including the last release and consensus forecast.
5. Key Indicators: Eurozone table showing monthly percentage changes for the past year for the following: Industrial production; unemployment; CPI; business and consumer confidence; and trade.
6. Financial Indicators: Eurozone table showing monthly percentage changes for the past year for interest and exchange rates, money supply, share price indices and net foreign direct investment.
The new Greek financing deal agreed this week has been hailed as saving Greece from default and avoiding a 'nightmare scenario'. But close examination of the details suggests the deal has only a slim chance of success. The assumptions underlying the forecasts of the debt/GDP ratio look very optimistic in terms of growth, fiscal adjustment and the success of the planned debt swap. In our view, for Greek debt to be reduced to a manageable level there will have to be an even bigger write-down of private sector debt and quite possibly significant debt relief from the official sector as well. One possible future for Greece thus involves it remaining in the Eurozone but receiving massive financial assistance for many years to come. But there also are significant risks that the new deal will unravel in the next few months. Greece may have to use coercion to achieve a high enough participation in the planned debt swap, and political and social support for the deal in Greece may also collapse with elections due in April. The risk of Greece being forced out of the euro remains significant. Probably the best that can be said of the new deal is that it may have bought a little extra time to build an effective financial â€˜firewall' to protect other â€˜peripheral' Eurozone states in the event of a collapse in Greece but even this outcome is in doubt.