Category: International Trade
South America International Trade
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Venezuela
... end permission for foreign energy firms to operate in the country by May 27 and charge a 25% "secondary tariff" on nations buying Venezuelan oil. Our previous baseline expected a continuation of the status quo. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
... 2025-2026 remains unchanged, with growth expected at 2.6%. Despite rising global outlook concerns, Peru’s growth prospects remain the strongest in the region, supported by flexible financial conditions, rising real wages, and a stout labor market. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia
... surprises to growth since the turn of the year imply a strong Q1 GDP figure. However, US reciprocal tariffs will cool exports and activity. Our 2026 GDP growth forecast is down 0.8ppts to 2.2% y/y. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
... reflect strong January and February data but have cut our 2026 projection by 0.5ppts to 2.1%. Although Argentina has limited exposure to US tariffs, the global economic slowdown will weigh on growth in next year. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
... 2026 GDP growth forecast down by 0.1ppt to 2.3%. The abrupt global increase in tariffs and escalating policy uncertainty negatively impacted global economic prospects, with risks tilted to the downside if US trade policies worsen. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil
... US trade war. President Lula da Silva's 2026 income tax reform is likely to lift household consumption by almost 1ppt next year. However, trade uncertainty is likely to drag on investment and therefore demand for ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
... front, renewed social unrest triggered by rising insecurity led to strikes in the capital city during April. On the external front, the global outlook has deteriorated due to escalating tariff threats, which could weigh on ... Read More
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Ecuador Tuna Fish Market- Trend Analysis & Forecast
... making it the second-largest exporter globally after Thailand. The industry supports roughly 25,000 jobs and includes varieties like yellowfin, bigeye, and skipjack. Backed by advanced infrastructure and a strategic Pacific coastline, Ecuador primarily exports to ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia
... global economic uncertainty due to US tariffs and instability in the Middle East could cool investment. This comes on top of domestic political instability, with the Petro government losing its third finance minister this month. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay
... driven by robust private consumption, supported by higher real wages. This should offset a negative contribution from net trade. However, risks remain tilted to the downside, including a stronger-than-expected La Niña, restrictive monetary policy, and ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
... outlook will be more pronounced next year, prompting a larger reduction in our 2026 forecast of 0.5ppts, to 2.4%. On a positive note, the Q4 national accounts confirmed that consumer expenditure remained resilient, and prospects ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
... cut is due to base effects. The threat of droughts due to the La Niña weather pattern, the likely deal with the International Monetary Fund, and the end of capital controls are key events to ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil
... and services output growth remained frail in January, and sentiment data for February don't show much of an improvement. Monetary policy remains restrictive as the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) tightens to tame high inflation. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador
... was more severe than expected, largely because of the energy crisis. Net trade will bolster growth during H1 2025, while consumption and investment are likely to stay weak until at least Q3 2025 due to ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
... main driver, supported by low inflation, flexible financial conditions, and a stable labor market. However, we expect net trade to drag on the economy, given global uncertainty around the potential for a Trump-led tariff war. Read More
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Macroeconomic Outlook Report: Peru
... (9.6%). In nominal terms, the three sectors are expected to grow by 4.4%, 5.6%, and 5.3%, respectively, in 2024. Three major metropolitan areas (Lima, Arequipa, Trujillo) in Peru contributed 49.2% to the country’s GDP and ... Read More
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Argentina In-depth PESTLE Insights
... analysis. Synopsis Understand the political system in Argentina through analysis of key figures in the country and governance indicators. Understand the economic situation in Argentina through a balanced assessment of core macroeconomic issues. Understand customer ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia
... lower inflation. Private consumption will lose some momentum due to its robust performance over the past five quarters. But we think the strength in investment will offset it. Risks remain tilted to the downside due ... Read More
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Bolivia In-depth PEST Insights
... analysis. Synopsis Understand the political system in Bolivia through analysis of key figures in the country and governance indicators. Understand the economic situation in Bolivia through a balanced assessment of core macroeconomic issues. Understand customer ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina
... better-than-expected Q3 performance in the external sector. Our forecast for next year is lower than consensus for 2025 but higher for 2026. The approved RIGI scheme presents an upside risk to growth, while the La ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets
... This reflects our view that private consumption is gaining momentum as inflation falls faster than we anticipated. With interest rates falling and inflation cooling, we anticipate a slight uptick in growth next year to 4%. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana
... in 2026 to reflect a more bearish outlook for global oil prices. In the medium term, we forecast a sustained period of 4% growth given waning base effects and a maturing of the oil industry. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America
... cut our 2025 projection to 2.0% from 3.0%. The IMF projects GDP growth at 3.0% for both years. Our outlook is more pessimistic as we expect harsher fiscal and monetary consolidation will depress economic activity. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Paraguay
... labor market and a recovery in real wages, along with more accommodative financial conditions, support our forecast. We expect these factors will drive domestic demand to expand by 5.7% this year and 4.0% next. This ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bolivia
... to 1.0% due to the protracted riots and higher inflation weighing on feeble domestic demand. The Supreme Court banned ex-president Evo Morales from running in the 2025 elections, triggering a political stalemate. Meanwhile, the Congress ... Read More
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