Category: International Trade
South America International Trade
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
... Presidential elections scheduled for April next year. We anticipate a decline in investment in 2026, in line with the historical pattern of rising political uncertainty and social unrest as elections approach. In addition, any escalation ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil
... Retail sales data indicate consumption momentum is weakening at the margin despite resilient employment and wage growth, leading us to think households are become increasingly prone to increase savings as interest rates hit record highs. Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia
... be strong and we expect a larger impulse from the fiscal deficit. The April ISE activity figure showed a strong bounce-back from the March downturn in the extraction and manufacturing sectors, while consumer strength continues. Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay
... below consensus. This reflects our view of slightly softer domestic demand, as subdued real wage growth and a gradual loosening in the labor market temper the pace of private consumption relative to our previous expectations. Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
... strong net trade performance in Q1 more than offset this. For 2026, we expect growth to slow slightly to 2.2%, due to an anticipated deterioration in the external trade sector amid a gloomy global outlook. Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
... in April, with construction and manufacturing posting monthly gains, with a recovery in vehicle production. However, we think growth will moderate over the coming months after strong Q1 figures and base effects from H2 2024. Read More
-
Source Market Insight: Brazil (2025)
... summarizes the key reasons why they travel. The report offers an in-depth analysis of traveler flows, spending patterns, main destination markets and current and future opportunities for tourism businesses seeking to tap into Brazil's outbound ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Venezuela
... end permission for foreign energy firms to operate in the country by May 27 and charge a 25% "secondary tariff" on nations buying Venezuelan oil. Our previous baseline expected a continuation of the status quo. Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia
... surprises to growth since the turn of the year imply a strong Q1 GDP figure. However, US reciprocal tariffs will cool exports and activity. Our 2026 GDP growth forecast is down 0.8ppts to 2.2% y/y. Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
... front, renewed social unrest triggered by rising insecurity led to strikes in the capital city during April. On the external front, the global outlook has deteriorated due to escalating tariff threats, which could weigh on ... Read More
-
Ecuador Tuna Fish Market- Trend Analysis & Forecast
... making it the second-largest exporter globally after Thailand. The industry supports roughly 25,000 jobs and includes varieties like yellowfin, bigeye, and skipjack. Backed by advanced infrastructure and a strategic Pacific coastline, Ecuador primarily exports to ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia
... global economic uncertainty due to US tariffs and instability in the Middle East could cool investment. This comes on top of domestic political instability, with the Petro government losing its third finance minister this month. Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
... outlook will be more pronounced next year, prompting a larger reduction in our 2026 forecast of 0.5ppts, to 2.4%. On a positive note, the Q4 national accounts confirmed that consumer expenditure remained resilient, and prospects ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
... cut is due to base effects. The threat of droughts due to the La Niña weather pattern, the likely deal with the International Monetary Fund, and the end of capital controls are key events to ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil
... and services output growth remained frail in January, and sentiment data for February don't show much of an improvement. Monetary policy remains restrictive as the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) tightens to tame high inflation. Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador
... was more severe than expected, largely because of the energy crisis. Net trade will bolster growth during H1 2025, while consumption and investment are likely to stay weak until at least Q3 2025 due to ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
... main driver, supported by low inflation, flexible financial conditions, and a stable labor market. However, we expect net trade to drag on the economy, given global uncertainty around the potential for a Trump-led tariff war. Read More
-
Country Review Uruguay
... foreign policy orientation, business and investment climate, socio-cultural scene including key demographic features, and pertinent environmental issues. The Country Reviews are updated annually, although there are dynamic updates through the year if major events occur. Read More
-
Country Review Chile
... foreign policy orientation, business and investment climate, socio-cultural scene including key demographic features, and pertinent environmental issues. The Country Reviews are updated annually, although there are dynamic updates through the year if major events occur. Read More
-
Country Review Argentina
... foreign policy orientation, business and investment climate, socio-cultural scene including key demographic features, and pertinent environmental issues. The Country Reviews are updated annually, although there are dynamic updates through the year if major events occur. Read More
-
Country Review Suriname
... foreign policy orientation, business and investment climate, socio-cultural scene including key demographic features, and pertinent environmental issues. The Country Reviews are updated annually, although there are dynamic updates through the year if major events occur. Read More
-
Country Review Guyana
... foreign policy orientation, business and investment climate, socio-cultural scene including key demographic features, and pertinent environmental issues. The Country Reviews are updated annually, although there are dynamic updates through the year if major events occur. Read More
-
Country Review Brazil
... foreign policy orientation, business and investment climate, socio-cultural scene including key demographic features, and pertinent environmental issues. The Country Reviews are updated annually, although there are dynamic updates through the year if major events occur. Read More
-
Country Review Venezuela
... foreign policy orientation, business and investment climate, socio-cultural scene including key demographic features, and pertinent environmental issues. The Country Reviews are updated annually, although there are dynamic updates through the year if major events occur. Read More
-
Country Review Peru
... foreign policy orientation, business and investment climate, socio-cultural scene including key demographic features, and pertinent environmental issues. The Country Reviews are updated annually, although there are dynamic updates through the year if major events occur. Read More
Research Assistance
