United Kingdom Banking

This week's data offered very mixed signals on the pace of UK activity growth. Retail sales rose again in March, but the composite PMI plunged in April. In our view, both measures are deeply flawed. The retail data appears to suffer from seasonal adjustment problems, while the results of the S&a ...

This week's labour market and inflation releases reported continued stickiness in the Bank of England's favoured measure of inflation and in pay growth. Evidence on the likely impact of this month's national insurance and national living wage rises has been mixed. Redundancy notification ...

Though President Trump temporarily suspended his administration's reciprocal tariffs on most countries this week, higher tariffs on China leave the overall effective tariff rate little changed from last week. And with trade policy uncertainty set to remain very high, we still plan to cut our nea ...

Banks in the United Kingdom Summary Banks in the United Kingdom industry profile provides top-line qualitative and quantitative summary information including: market size (value 2019-24, and forecast to 2029). The profile also contains descriptions of the leading players including key financial metr ...

The Monetary Policy Committee's decision to keep Bank Rate at 4.5% was no surprise. We expect the committee to continue cutting at alternate meetings until at least August, when it will start to digest evidence of the impact of the increase in employers' national insurance contributions. So ...

We expect UK GDP will grow by 1% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, unchanged from last month. Recent data have supported our view that the H2 2024 slowdown was exaggerated by residual seasonality in the GDP data. Though we expect the pace of quarterly growth to be stronger this year than in H2 2024, growth ...

January's small fall in UK GDP is no cause for concern given it came on the back of December's outsized increase. We continue to expect quarter-on-quarter growth of around 0.3% in Q1, though a history of volatility in the early part of the year – likely reflecting residual seasonality in the ...

Speaking at the UK Treasury Select Committee this week, members of the Monetary Policy Committee largely confirmed our priors about whether they think the recent weakness in UK activity was mainly demand- or supply-driven. We think the 'cut-hold' approach to loosening policy is likely to con ...

This week's data failed to offer the sort of upside surprises in UK inflation and pay growth that would likely be required for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee to change course from its gradual approach to loosening policy. ...

2024 United Kingdom Financial Analytics Forecast (2025-2030 Outlook)-Market Opportunities Report , published by Barnes Reports, contains timely and accurate market statistics and forecasts on the market. The product or service category is within the NAICS Healthcare industry. The market is expected ...

Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves confirmed that she would make material changes to the fiscal rules in order to boost public investment. A move to targeting a fall in public sector net financial liabilities over the course of the parliament looks likely. But we e ...

Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom After an early-summer lull, UK GDP returned to growth in August. Though the pace of growth has clearly cooled from the well above-trend rates seen in H1 2024, the economy continues to enjoy decent momentum. We're unlikely to change our forecast that GDP ...

Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom National accounts revisions confirmed that the UK's post-pandemic recovery was slightly stronger than initially thought. But a big downward revision to the saving ratio suggests less scope for dissaving from the household sector, so we plan to nudge down ...

Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Though monthly UK GDP data suggest the upturn may be faltering, recent outturns have been very noisy at a sectoral level, and we think the economy continues to carry solid momentum. So we have maintained our forecast that GDP will grow by 1.1% this year and ...

Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Business survey data suggests that UK activity has continued to grow at a solid pace in Q3. The composite PMI is running at a similar level to H1 2024, though the patchy relationship with official output data suggests we shouldn't take these results too ...

Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom This week has seen substantial volatility in global financial markets, but we think the implications for the UK economy are limited. The UK sell-off has been relatively modest. We also think there's a good chance that equity prices will recover because f ...

Our UK Fraud Detection & Prevention in Banking research suite provides detailed evaluation and analysis of the evolving fraud landscape in the UK for banking and the financial industry, including fraud trends and the impact of evolving payment types, such as instant payments, blockchain and CBDCs (C ...

Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The first business surveys of Q3 provided more evidence that the UK economic recovery has now taken root. While it's still early days, our forecast that q/q GDP growth is likely to remain solid in Q3, albeit slightly slower than in Q2, remains on track. ...

Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom UK GDP growth beat expectations again in May, meaning output remains on track for another quarter of solid growth in Q2. This adds to the evidence that the economy has now firmly turned a corner and supports our above-consensus forecast for GDP growth in 202 ...

Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The Bank of England's Financial Stability Report echoed our warnings that the impact of tighter monetary policy is still to fully pass through to households. The increase in debt servicing costs should be manageable for most, but there's a long tail ...

Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United Kingdom We have revised down our forecast for 2024 industrial production growth to 0.3%. We expect the Monetary Policy Committee will begin to cut interest rates in August of this year as there is evidence of loosening in labour market conditions and we ...

2024 United Kingdom Banking-As-A-Service Forecast (2025-2030 Outlook)-Market Opportunities Report , published by Barnes Reports, contains timely and accurate market statistics and forecasts on the market. The product or service category is within the Banking-as-a-Service industry. The market is expe ...

2024 United Kingdom Digital Banking Platforms Forecast (2025-2030 Outlook)-Market Opportunities Report , published by Barnes Reports, contains timely and accurate market statistics and forecasts on the market. The product or service category is within the Digital Banking Platforms industry. The mark ...

Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom UK private sector regular pay growth continued to soften in April, despite upward pressure from the month's national living wage increase. With labour market conditions continuing to cool, we expect pay growth to weaken further in the coming months, allo ...

UK Bancassurance Distribution Dynamics, 2023 Full Year Update Summary This report discusses the bancassurance landscape for UK personal and commercial insurance. This includes discussion of the SME market, with due consideration given to smaller businesses and their comparatively simpler insurance n ...