“Intelligent Car – 5G Use Case” Markets, Standardization, Technologies

“Intelligent Car – 5G Use Case” Markets, Standardization, Technologies

This report updates and extends the Practel intelligent car project.

The goal of this report is to:

  • Analyze current trends in the Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) development
  • Address the progress in the ITS standardization
  • Analyze technological and marketing ITS specifics
  • Address the connected car trend
  • Analyze the connected car technologies and marketing specifics; identify major industry players and their portfolios
  • Present the current status of the driverless car development
  • Analyze marketing and technological driverless car specifics
  • Analyze the lidar technologies and market as well as the industry for automotive applications
  • Show how communications industry is preparing for the 5G era, emphasizing the role of 5G mobile communications in supporting the driverless car development. The driverless car is one of important 5G use cases.
Though never managing to successfully predict what each forthcoming generation of mobile technology should deliver to satisfy future users, the industry has nonetheless reached some consensus on the use cases for 5G communications. Machine to machine communications is one. 5G should enable the IoT, the future where all online-enabled objects will quietly pass on data to each other or to a central computer.

Facilitating the use of mobile networks by connected and autonomous cars, remotely controlled industrial robots, telehealth systems, and smart city infrastructure are also all expected to figure large in 5G thinking. There is a common notion the industry is hoping that 5G will solve problems we don't have today, but those that could hold us back years in the future – and one of the best examples to such a statement is a driverless car.

This particular report addresses the Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) progress in reaching its ultimate goal - to make a car “intelligent” enough to safely drive without a human participation. It also updates the status of a driverless car development in connection with transition to the 5G era: the industry identified driverless cars as most viable form of ITS, dominating the roadways by 2040 and sparking dramatic changes in vehicular travel. The report discusses the specifics of the 5G era as they are seen by the industry at the present time with emphasis on what 5G technologies can bring to the driverless car.

Such a car was considered by many as a scientists’ dream only 10-15 years ago; now it is a reality and all predictions are that driverless cars will hit the roads in 6-8 years. Fully developed driverless car needs support of communications systems evolving in the transition to 5G; and these two developments are interrelated - a driverless car becomes a 5G use case.

The report provides overview of the current status of the driverless car development, pictures the future steps, which the industry is planning, analyzes roadblocks, and emphasizes the importance of standardization – several organizations are working in this direction. The analysis concentrates on technological and marketing aspects of driverless cars and also on the status of the industry.

The survey of driverless cars projects currently underway is conducted; as well as the survey of related patents (2017-2019). Initial marketing statistics are developed.

The detailed analysis of two important parts of a driverless car – lidar (one of the main components of ADAS) and the communications gear - “connected car” - is performed. The survey of recent auto lidar patents is also performed.

A driverless car, for simplicity, may be described as a combination of a connected car and ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems); and other parts. The ADAS important part is driverless car “eyes” – an instrument that can “see” surroundings and provide the information to the car for the analysis and taking relevant actions. One of most promising technologies that make cars “to see” is lidar, which is composed of laser and other parts. The report provides the detailed analysis of lidar technical and marketing characteristics and the survey of the industry.

The detailed analysis of connected cars specifics, standardization, technical characteristics and economics are presented in this report. The companies – contributors to the connected car market development – are identified and their portfolios are analyzed.

The report also emphasizes the importance of 5G mobile networking as a basis for the driverless car ITS revolution. With “ultimate” ITS, it is expected that safety on the roads will be drastically improved and the society will be free from massive amount of injuries and deaths on the roads as well as from damages to the economy due to accidents and traffic jams.

The report is intended to technical and managerial staff involved in the advanced ITS development; and for specialists in communications technologies who support such a development.


1.0 Introduction
1.1 Overview
1.2 Report Goal
1.3 Report Scope
1.4 Research Methodology
1.5 Target Audience
2.0 ITS: Roads to Perfection
2.1 Response
2.2 Structure
2.3 ITS Key Technologies
2.4 ITS Main Subsystems – Driverless Car Basis
2.5 ITS Standardization: In Progress
2.5.1 Overview
2.5.2 ETSI - Europe
2.5.3 U.S.
2.5.3.1 General
2.5.3.2 National Transportation Communications for ITS Protocol (NTCIP)
2.5.4 International
2.5.4.1 General
2.5.4.2 ITU
2.5.5 Summary
2.6 ITS Applications
2.6.1 V2V and V2I
2.6.2 Intelligent Vehicles
2.7 ITS Market Statistics
2.7.1 General
2.7.2 Estimate
3.0 Connected Car
3.1 General – Definition
3.1.1 Driving Forces
3.2 Alternatives: Technologies
3.2.1 Connected Car - 5.9 GHz DSRC
3.2.1.1 Background
3.2.1.1.1 Recent Developments
3.2.1.2 Efforts
3.2.1.3 Place
3.2.1.4 Structure and Protocols
3.2.1.5 Requirements
3.2.1.6 Milestones
3.2.1.7 IEEE 802.11p
3.2.1.7.1 General
3.2.1.7.2 Objectives and Status
3.2.1.7.3 ASTM Contributions
3.2.1.7.4 Characteristics
3.2.1.8 IEEE 1609
3.2.1.8.1 General
3.2.1.8.2 Overview
3.2.1.8.3 IEEE 1609 in Use
3.2.1.9 ETSI ITS-G5 – Major Features
3.2.1.10 ISO and DSRC
3.2.1.11 5.9 GHz DSRC Components and Procedures
3.2.1.11.1 Components
3.2.1.11.2 Procedures
3.2.1.12 Major Applications
3.2.1.12.1 EPS
3.2.1.13 Spectrum – DSRC
3.2.1.13.1 Channels Designation
3.2.1.14 Services
3.2.1.14.1 Major Services
3.2.1.14.2 Service Categories/QoS
3.2.1.14.3 Service Requirements
3.2.1.15 Summary: 5.9 GHz DSRC Characteristics
3.2.1.16 Market Segment and Industry
3.2.1.16.1 Market Drivers
3.2.1.16.2 Market Requirements
3.2.1.16.3 Market Estimate - 5.9 GHz DSRC
3.2.1.17 Industry
3.2.1.17.1 Industry Coalition
3.2.1.17.2 Recent Progress
3.2.1.17.3 Vendors
Arinc (Rockwell Collins)
AutoTalks
Cohda Wireless
Delphi
Kapsch
NXP
Redpine Signals
Savari
Unex
3.2.1.18 Enhancing 802.11p – 802.11bd
3.2.2 Connected Car – Cellular Technologies
3.2.2.1 General
3.2.2.2 3GPP Activities
3.2.2.2.1 D2D Communications
3.2.2.2.2 C-V2X Broadcast
3.2.2.2.3 Performance Comparison
3.3 Connected Car - Features
3.3.3 Two Technologies – Two Opinions
3.3.3.1 Governments
3.3.3.2 Comparison
3.3.4 Functional Technologies
3.3.4.1 Over the Air Updates
3.3.5 Major Applications
3.3.6 Policies
3.3.7 Choices
3.3.8 Network Requirements
3.3.9 Market: Connected Car
3.3.10 Industry
AT&T
Airbiquity Inc.
Apple
Broadcom
Ericsson
Ficosa
GM
MobilEye (Intel Company)
Nokia
Qualcomm
Sierra Wireless
Streetline
Verizon
Visteon
Wind River
Zubie
3.3.11 NR V2X - Evolution of C-V2X
4.0 Connected Car – Industry Groups and Standardization
4.1 Industry Groups
4.1.1 Open Automotive Alliance
4.1.2 4G Venture Forum for Connected Cars
4.1.3 Apple – iOS in the Car
4.1.4 GSMA Connected Car Forum
4.1.5 Car Connectivity Consortium
4.2 Standards and Regulations
4.2.1 Joint Efforts
4.2.2 EU
4.2.3 U.S.
4.2.4 WWW Consortium
4.2.5 SAE
5.0 5G Era
5.1 5G Timetable (3GPP-ITU)
5.2 Contributors
5.3 5G Activity Survey
5.3.1 NGMN Ltd – Supporter of C-V2X
5.3.1.1 5G White Papers
5.3.2 5G-PPP (5G Public Private Partnership)
5.3.3 5G Americas
5.3.4 GSMA
5.3.4.1 GSMA Report on 5G
5.3.4.1.1 Vision
5.3.4.1.2 The Evolution: From 4G to 5G
5.3.4.1.3 5G Use Cases
5.3.5 Verizon 5G Technology Forum (TF)
5.3.6 3GPP – New Radio (NR)
6.0 5G Technologies – Main Features
6.1 Look into Future
6.2 Promising Directions
6.2.1 Requirements
6.2.2 Common Views
6.2.2.1 5G Spectrum
6.2.3 Future – Starts Today
6.3 Issues
6.4 Use Cases
6.4.1 General –Characteristics
6.4.2 Mobile Broadband
6.4.3 Automotive
6.4.4 Smart Society
7.0 Evolving of Driverless Car
7.1 Growing Together
7.2 Directions and Issues
7.3 ADAS
7.4 Current Status – Legislation and Insurance
7.4.1 The U.S.
7.4.2 The GB
7.5 Major Benefits
7.6 Solutions
7.7 Market Projections and Price
7.8 Phases
7.8.1 Required Characteristics
7.9 Industry and R&D
7.9.1 Automakers
7.9.1.1 Audi
7.9.1.1.1 First Level 3 Car
7.9.1.2 Ford
7.9.1.3 GM
7.9.1.4 Nissan
7.9.1.5 Daimler/Mercedes
7.9.1.6 VW and AdaptIVe Consortium
7.9.1.7 Volvo Cars
7.9.1.8 Tesla Motors
7.9.1.9 SAIC
7.9.1.10 Other
7.9.2 R&D and Competitors
7.9.2.1 Alphabet/Google – ProjectX -Waymo
7.9.2.2 Baidu
7.9.2.3 DOTs
7.9.2.4 Telecom Readiness: Driverless Car - 5G Communications
7.9.2.4.1 Huawei
7.9.2.4.2 Swisscom
7.9.2.5 QNX
7.9.2.6 Continental Automotive
7.9.2.7 Nvidia
7.9.3 Start-ups
7.9.3.1 Uber
7.9.3.2 Lyft
7.10 Standardization
7.10.1 NHTSA
7.10.1.1 Levels
7.10.2 SAE International
7.10.2.1 USA Preparedness
7.10.3 IEEE
7.10.4 AECC
7.10.5 Summary
8.0 Lidar
8.1 General
8.1.1 Typical Characteristics
8.2 Structure and Functionalities
8.2.1 Comparison with other Sensors
8.3 Sensors and Bad Weather
8.4 Industry
AEye
Analog Devices
ASC
Ibeo (subsidiary of SICK AG)
Innoviz
Lasertel
Luminar
LeddarTech
Oryx Vision
Osram/Phantom Intelligence
Quanergy
TetraVue
TriLumina
Velodyne
Waymo (Alphabet)
8.5 Lidars Benefits and Limitations
8.6 Market
9.0 Conclusions
Attachment I: Driverless/Connected Car-related Patents Survey (2017-2019)
Attachment II: Automotive Lidar-related Patents Survey (2017-2019)
Figure 1: Wireless Communications: ITS Environment
Figure 2: Europe – Standardization Organizations
Figure 3: U.S. - ITS Standardizations Bodies
Figure 4: NTCIP Structure
Figure 5: International –Standardization Bodies - ITS
Figure 6: Estimate: Global Market - ITS Devices ($B)
Figure 7: Estimate: ITS WICT- Global Market ($B)
Figure 8: ITS Equipment Sales by Regions ($B)
Figure 9: Connected Car - Sensors
Figure 10: 5.9 GHz DSRC – Frequencies Allocation and Channelization
Figure 11: 5.9 GHz DSRC - Modified Spectrum Proposal
Figure 12: Industry Cooperation
Figure 13: ITS-5.9 GHz DSRC - Illustration
Figure 14: Communications Model: WAVE
Figure 15: 802.11p - Communications
Figure 16: Signals Flow
Figure 17: Collision Detection/Avoidance System
Figure 18: Work Zone Warning
Figure 19: “Smart” Car
Figure 20: DSRC Worldwide – Spectrum Allocation
Figure 21: DSRC: Spectrum Allocation Details
Figure 22: Channel Assignment – 5.9 GHz DSRC
Figure 23: 5.9 GHz DSRC Transmission Characteristics and Channelization
Figure 24: Spectrum Details – Overlapping Wi-Fi
Figure 25: Major Categories-DSRC Services
Figure 26: 5.9 GHz DSRC Rate vs. Distance
Figure 27: 5.9 GHz DSRC Protocols – Summary
Figure 28: Estimate: 5.9 GHz DSRC U.S. Market Size ($B)
Figure 29: C-V2X Modes of Communications
Figure 30: 3GPP Schedule – Evolution of LTE-based Communications
Figure 31: D2D Communications – Evolution
Figure 32: LTE ProSe Functions – Discovery and Communications
Figure 33: 3GPP – C-V2X Technology Development
Figure 34: Connected Car Functionalities
Figure 35: Network Requirements – Connected Car Connectivity
Figure 36: Estimate – Global Market – Connected Car ($B)
Figure 37: Estimate: Global Automotive Wireless Market – Equipment Sales ($B)
Figure 38: Estimate – Global – Service Providers Revenue – Connected Car ($B)
Figure 39: Estimate – Global Sales – Connected Cars (Mil. Units)
Figure 40: Connected Car Penetration – U.S. (%)
Figure 41: ITU-R Schedule and Process for IMT-2020
Figure 42: 3GPP – Tentative Timeline – 5G Standardization
Figure 43: Time Line – NR Development
Figure 44: Transition - Current View
Figure 45: 5G Spectrum
Figure 46: 5G Technologies Directions
Figure 47: 5G – related Characteristics
Figure 48: 5G Use Cases – Rate of Transmission and Latency
Figure 49: U.S. – Driverless Car Legislative Status (as of 2018)
Figure 50: Estimate: Driverless Cars Sold – Global (%)
Figure 51: Evolution Path – Driverless Car
Figure 52: NHTSA - Car Automation Levels
Figure 53: Lidar and Radar Properties
Figure 54: Estimate: Lidar Market Size – Global ($B)
Figure 55: Estimate: Automotive Lidar Market Size – Global ($B)
Table 1: ETSI G5 Characteristics
Table 2: Service Categories
Table 3: Service Requirements
Table 4: 5.9 GHz DSRC Characteristics
Table 5: 802.11p and 802.11bd
Table 6: LTE - D2D and Broadcast Modes – Performance Comparison
Table 7: Major Parameters – 5.9 GHz DSRC and C-V2X
Table 8: NR V2X vs 802.11bd
Table 9: 5G Network Major Characteristics
Table 10: 5G Use Cases
Table 11: Lidar Characteristics – Automotive Applications
Table 12: Lidar and Video Camera Properties

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