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Analysis by Region - MENA

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Mar 16, 2026
Length 8 Pages
SKU # OFE21077190

Description

Turkey has so far suffered minimal direct impact from the Iran war, but we expect the rise in energy prices to ripple through the economy – we've therefore cut our already below-consensus 2026 growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 2.9%. The industrial sector started the year on a weak footing, and war-related uncertainty dampens the near-term prospects for activity. GDP growth softened to 3.4% y/y in Q4, bringing the full-year 2025 expansion to 3.6%, below our 3.8% forecast.

Table of Contents

8 Pages
Turkey: Economy faces a more stagflationary outlook
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short
term outlook
Key drivers of our short
term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long
term prospects
Alternative long
run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy and politics

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