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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Dec 23, 2025
Length 9 Pages
SKU # OFE20686065

Description

We've cut our 2026 growth forecast for Russia to -0.1% as we expect the impact of sanctions on export volumes and the tight policy mix to tip the economy into recession this winter. We've raised our 2025 growth estimate for Russia by 0.1ppt to 0.7% based on high-frequency data reflecting a pick-up in activity in mid-autumn, which we believe will be short-lived.

Table of Contents

9 Pages
Russia: New sanctions loom as Ukraine peace remains elusive
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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