We raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Russia to 1% from 0.8% following a substantial upward revision to Q1 GDP data. We also tweaked our 2026 GDP forecast to 0.9% from 0.8%. Following a sequential contraction in Q1, the economy returned to growth in Q2, but recent data point to a loss of momentum. Lower oil prices and a nearly depleted sovereign fund necessitate fiscal prudence and leave little room for fiscal stimulation. We see the economy narrowly avoiding recession if the central bank pushes on with large rate cuts in H2 2025 and H1 2026.
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