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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Jan 14, 2026
Length 8 Pages
SKU # OFE20872854

Description

Our 2026 GDP growth outlook for Mexico is unchanged at 1.4%, marginally above the consensus of 1.3%. Risks remain tilted to the downside as our outlook hinges on a successful renegotiation of the USMCA free-trade agreement that leads to a recovery in H2 as the high economic uncertainty weighing on domestic demand fades.

Table of Contents

8 Pages
Mexico: Tariffs and tax updates pose upside risks to inflation in Q1
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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