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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Indonesia

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Sep 30, 2025
Length 9 Pages
SKU # OFE20535961

Description

Recent developments, not all fully captured in the September vintage of our forecasts, present material upside risks to our 2026 growth forecast of 4.8% y/y. The pace of disbursement of government expenditure should accelerate, and improved revenue collection could further boost the government's capacity to spend. Supportive fiscal and monetary policies should help offset the drag from slowing export growth, driven by higher tariffs and weaker commodity demand.

Table of Contents

9 Pages
Indonesia: A dovish BI, but not necessarily more cuts than we're expecting
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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